PARTIES PREPARE TO RESPOND TO BOUTEFLIKA'S

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ALGIERS 001516

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/23/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM AG
SUBJECT: PARTIES PREPARE TO RESPOND TO BOUTEFLIKA'S
PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT

REF: A. ALGIERS 1308


B. ALGIERS 1259

C. ALGIERS 1249

Classified By: DCM Thomas F. Daughton for reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: While the vacationing President Bouteflika
ponders what constitutional changes he will propose to voters
in the fall, Algerian opposition parties (and the lone
Islamist party in the presidential coalition) are preparing
their reaction. The opposition Islah Party believes that any
tinkering with the Algerian constitution designed to benefit
the sitting president will do little to further democracy in
the country, and has already announced its opposition to
whatever plan Bouteflika submits. The largest Berber
opposition party is similarly skeptical that much good will
come from Bouteflika's initiative, believing that the
French-style centralization and one-party control of
government that have characterized Algeria since its
independence will surely remain. The party is nonetheless
withholding public comment on the amendments until President
Bouteflika spells them out in September. While the
presidential coalition parties will almost certainly support
Bouteflika, the moderate Islamic party in the grouping is
privately concerned that he might propose to eliminate the
presidential term limit entirely -- something the party says
it cannot support. Whatever form Bouteflika's proposed
constitutional amendments take, the changes will almost
certainly be adopted in the popular referendum, expected
before the end of the year. End Summary.

BERBER OPPOSITION ASKS HOW MUCH DEMOCRACY WILL BE ALLOWED
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2. (C) Sa'id Saadi, the head of the predominantly Berber
opposition party, "Rassemblement pour la Culture et la
Democratie" (RCD),asserted August 21 that the referendum
would not address Algeria's ills. In the RCD's view, the
primary problems facing Algeria are one-party control, dating
to Algeria's independence from France in 1962, and
French-style government centralization. The referendum will
remedy neither, Saadi told us. He fully expected a proposal
that would allow Bouteflika to seek a third term in office,
which the president would then use to run for re-election.
While Saadi had nothing against the president personally, he
noted that Bouteflika was part of the "old generation" that
had won Algerian independence. In his view, Bouteflika and
his peers were unsuited to modernize the country. They would
not put automated teller machines, for example, on the
streets of Algiers -- something Saadi recently found to his
surprise in Libya, a country he viewed as more isolated than
Algeria until a short time ago.


3. (C) Saadi believed Bouteflika's health was a cause of
concern for Algerians, and would oblige him to amend the
constitution to create a vice presidency to reassure the
public on succession. If Bouteflika proposed to put the
president and VP on the same ballot for voter approval, Saadi
said, his party would have no qualms with the reform. But he
doubted that Bouteflika would permit the open selection of a
vice president. Another widely expected amendment proposal
would give the Senate power to amend and shape legislation.
According to Saadi, the more important question was whether
Bouteflika would change the constitution to end the ability
of one-third of senators (the number appointed by the
president) to block legislation supported by the majority.
He was skeptical Bouteflika would allow that much democracy
in the Senate, and was even more skeptical that the GOA would
properly count the votes for the referendum. In that regard,
Saadi showed PolEc Chief the officially published,
Arabic-language results of the 2004 presidential election,
pointing out that his personal vote total from two electoral
districts exceeded his total national vote as listed
elsewhere in the same publication. Even when the GOA tried
to cheat, he remarked, it couldn't do it well.

MSP: PASSAGE A FOREGONE CONCLUSION
--------------


4. (C) In an August 22 meeting with PolEc Chief, the chief of
staff to the leader of the moderate Islamist Movement for a
Society of Peace (MSP) said that his party would rather see
abolition of the Emergency Law than enactment of
constitutional reforms that would have little real impact on
Algerian society. Nourredine Ait Nessaoudene averred that

ALGIERS 00001516 002 OF 002


there was no question that Bouteflika was widely popular:
whatever amendments to the constitution he proposed would
pass. Like other members of the presidential coalition, the
MSP had dutifully forwarded to Bouteflika its proposals for
the constitutional referendum. Ait Nessaoudene believed that
the president wanted to improve Algeria's international
image, and thus would not propose constitutional reforms that
would detract from his goal. The MSP was also confident that
Bouteflika's proposed amendments would be "statesmanlike" and
not reflect solely the views of the parliament's largest
party, the FLN. Ait Nessaoudene admitted privately, however,
that Bouteflika would put the MSP in a very uncomfortable
position if he proposed to abolish term limits for the
president. A third term for Bouteflika would suit the MSP,
he said, but no limit to the president's tenure in office
would be unacceptable.

ISLAH WILL OUTRIGHT OPPOSE ANY BOUTEFLIKA INITIATIVE
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5. (C) Islah (Reform) Party head Abdallah Djballah told PolEc
Chief August 22 that his party did not support yet another
set of constitutional amendments designed to favor the
sitting president. Djballah, whose Islamist party opposes
the government's platform generally, maintained that Algeria
needed strong democratic institutions such as a credible
parliament and rule of law. Bouteflika's proposal --
whatever form it took -- would certainly not radically
change the Algerian system. Djballah acknowledged that
Bouteflika's constitutional amendments would be adopted,
given the lack of transparency and democracy in Algeria.
When only the presidential coalition parties had access to
the electronic media and the voting process was manipulated
by the government, he asked, what rational person would
expect another outcome? Djballah said North Americans and
Europeans were fortunate to live in societies that had strong
democratic systems. He wanted to see true democracy take
root in Algeria, but minor fixes to the Algerian constitution
would not bring about such change.


6. (C) COMMENT: While the devil of any electoral proposal is
in the details, we can safely predict even before Bouteflika
presents his proposed constitutional amendments that the
opposition parties will oppose his initiative and that the
parties of the presidential coalition, like the MSP, will
support it. We also agree with the MSP that Bouteflika's
proposal is likely to be "statesmanlike" and address the
MSP's concern about unlimited presidential terms. One thing
on which all the key political players agree is that
Bouteflika's proposed amendments will be adopted. All that
matters now is what Bouteflika decides to include in his
initiative.
FORD