TAIWAN CONTINUES TO WORRY ABOUT CENTRAL AMERICA

S E C R E T AIT TAIPEI 000781

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 3/09/2016
TAGS: CR NC PAN PANAM PGOV PREL TW XR
SUBJECT: TAIWAN CONTINUES TO WORRY ABOUT CENTRAL AMERICA
TIES

REF: TAIPEI 0427

Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan, Reason
1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: Taiwan Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA)
officials continue to worry about Taipei's diplomatic
standing in Central America and are particularly concerned
that Panama, Costa Rica, and Nicaragua might consider
switching recognition from Taipei to Beijing. MOFA hopes US
influence in the region will help Taiwan maintain its
relationships. End summary.


2. (S) MOFA's immediate concern is Panama (reftel). In two
recent meetings with the Acting Director, Foreign Minister
James Huang pointed to Panama-PRC meetings in Madrid in
mid-February as evidence of Panama's strong interest in
exploring the possibility of switching recognition. Huang
explained that because the US has interests and influence in
the region, Taipei hopes Washington might be able to render
some assistance to Taiwan. He added that MOFA assesses
Panamanian President Torrijos is inclined to maintain
diplomatic ties with Taiwan while expanding commercial ties
with Beijing, but Vice-President and Foreign Minister Samuel
Lewis is pressuring Torrijos to derecognize Taiwan.


3. (C) MOFA Director-General for Latin America Jai-son Ko
also expressed concern about Panama and told AIT that despite
Panamanian assurances, Taipei is not confident of its
standing and does not know "what is going to happen." He
stressed that Taiwan would like to work with Washington in
its effort to convince Panama not to recognize Beijing.


4. (C) Ko also raised concerns about Nicaragua and Costa
Rica. In Nicaragua, he said, there are far too many
candidates opposing pro-PRC Sandinista candidate Daniel
Ortega in the Fall presidential election, which could split
the vote and allow Ortega to win the presidency outright. Ko
expressed hope that the US will consider using it influence
to encourage the anti-Sandinista candidates to cooperate to
find an effective strategy to oppose Ortega.


5. (C) In Costa Rica, Ko feared that president-elect Oscar
Arias Sanchez will move San Jose closer to Beijing. Within a
year, he speculated, Sanchez might move to exchange trade
offices with China, as a precursor to formal ties.
Separately, Costa Rica's Ambassador to Taiwan, Dr. Oscar
Alvarez, told AIT that he expects one of Sanchez's priorities
after assuming office will be to expand ties with Beijing and
invest in the PRC market. In the past, Alvarez noted,
Sanchez has expressed his displeasure with Costa Rica's ties
to Taiwan. Alvarez told AIT that many Costa Rican government
officials believe Sanchez is preparing to switch ties to
Beijing when the time is right.


6. (C) Comment: Although Central America is Taiwan's most
important region diplomatically, based on AIT's meetings with
mid-level MOFA officials, it appears that Taipei does not
have a solid grasp on the status of its diplomatic ties with
governments in the region. There is a sense of pessimism
that Taipei is barely hanging on and must rely on US
influence to help maintain Taiwan's ties and provide accurate
assessments of Taipei's diplomatic standing. If this trend
continues, it is only a matter of time before Taiwan will
lose its partners in Central America.

KEEGAN