MEDIA REACTION: U.S. AND CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000761

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC
BARBORIAK
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S. AND CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS



1. Summary: As Taiwan'smajor Chinese-language dailies
centered their reporting March 9 on the government's
management of state-run property, Taiwan's foreign
relations, and other local issues, coverage also focused on
the aftermath of President Chen Shui-bian's announcement of
the cessation of the National Unification Council (NUC) and
National Unification Guidelines (NUG). The pro-independence
"Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest daily, ran a news story on
its page two that quoted TECRO Chief David Lee as saying
Taiwan and the United States will soon reach a consensus
over the NUC and NUG matter. The pro-independence "Taiwan
Daily" ran a banner headline on its front page that read:
"[Former U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Richard] Armitage
Says the Cessation of the NUC and NUG Will Not Affect Cross-
Strait Relations." The sub-headline added: "Former U.S.
Deputy Secretary of State Visits Taiwan and Says Beijing's
Reaction [Toward the NUC and NUG Matter] Is Within
Expectations. Supports Taiwan's Push for a New Constitution
As Long As It Is in Line with [the Island's] Public
Opinion." The "Liberty Times" and "Taiwan Daily" ran in
their inside pages an opinion survey released by Taiwan's
Straits Exchange Foundation that reported: 33.1 percent of
those polled said they support Taiwan independence; 26.9
percent say they support maintaining the status quo; and
21.8 percent say they support unification with China.


2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "Liberty
Times" editorial reflected on the cross-Strait crisis in
1996 and called on the government to pass the U.S. arms
procurement package as early as possible. A "Taiwan Daily"
editorial urged Washington to pay attention to Taiwan's
mainstream public opinion, saying that the cessation of the
NUC and NUG is a road that Taiwan must follow. An editorial
in the limited-circulation, pro-independence, English-
language "Taipei Times" strongly criticized Washington
officials, saying that so along as they try to analyze
Taiwan through the lens of what best serves the U.S.
interests, their understanding of Taiwan will be wrong. Lo
Chih-cheng, executive director of the Institute for National
Policy Research, also opined in the "Taipei Times" that with
the conclusion of the NUC matter, "Taiwan has won the right
to interpret the `status quo' and to interpret what
constitutes a change to the `status quo.'" Washington
correspondent Norman Fu, writing for the pro-status-quo
"China Times," described the Chen administration's current
mood as "waiting for the other shoe to drop." End summary.

A) "China Test-fired Missiles at Taiwan Ten Years Ago; What
About Taiwan in the Future?"

The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000]
editorialized (3/9):

". Over the past ten years, China's national defense budget
has increased at a two-digit rate; it now ranks the third
highest in the world, next to that of the United States, and
Russia. Even the world's superpower, the United States, is
very concerned that China's non-peaceful rise will seriously
threaten the world's peace and stability. In the face of
China's military threat, Taiwan should pass the [U.S.] arms
procurement package as early as possible so that Taiwan has
the capabilities to safeguard the island's national security
and protect the lives and property of the Taiwan people, as
well as its democratic system. It is a pity, however, that
the opposition parties are blocking the arms procurement
bill and they do not recognize Taiwan as an independent
sovereign state. They refuse [to accept] the island's
elected government and seek to block every proposal made by
the government; it seems they are standing by China's side
and have no concern for the Taiwan people. Judged from all
these [signals], it seems that even though it has been a
decade since the cross-Strait crisis of 1996, the latent
crisis in the Taiwan Strait has only become more serious.
The 23 million people of Taiwan ., as a result, should unite
together to be prepared for possible future perils and
threats. All the more, [we] should strengthen Taiwan's
security and do our best to develop [Taiwan's] economy."

B) "The United States Should Pay Attention to Taiwan's
Public Opinion That Loves Peace and Opposes Aggression; It
Should Attach Great Importance to China's Intention to Use
Force to Annex Taiwan and Its Aggressiveness"

The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 100,000]
wrote in an editorial (3/9):

". It seems that the United States has deliberately used
some diplomatic maneuvering to spin Taiwan's `cessation of
the NUC and NUG.' Even though this development was a result
of Taiwan's opposition parties' malicious attempts to create
trouble by [playing with the words] 'cease? abolish?', the
international community seems to have failed to realize that
the `cessation of the NUC and NUG' is a road that
`democratic Taiwan' must follow. This is because the Taiwan
people want to protect their homeland from being annexed and
turned into part of the territory of the `authoritarian
China.' When Washington showed its concern [over Taiwan's
cessation of the NUC and NUG] and when [the Taiwan
government] designated the `Anti-Aggression Day' as a
national holiday, we should speak out loud to the
international community to let the world know Taiwan's
determination to pursue the universal values of democracy!"

C) "Is the US Asleep at the Wheel?"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times"
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (3/9):

"US politicians and military officers think that Taiwan
exists solely for the benefit for - or as a detriment to -
US-China relations. This blissfully egocentric attitude has
been the source of much confusion in cross-strait relations,
and could lead Washington to make a major miscalculation
jeopardizing its strategic position in the Western Pacific.
The problem is that the US has demonstrated it has little
understanding of the forces that drive domestic politics in
Taiwan. Taiwan's relationship with China is merely one part
of the equation for local politicians, and they do not score
points by keeping their mouths shut about it. .

"So long as Washington's officials and think tanks try to
analyze Taiwan through the lens of what best serves US
interests, they are going to get it wrong. At a Senate Arms
Services Committee hearing on Tuesday, this mentality was on
full display. . From the senator's [i.e. Senator John
Warner] perspective, Chen acted `inappropriately' because
his decision complicated things for the US. Taiwan may owe
a lot to the US, but his certainly doesn't mean that
Washington can expect to dictate the decisions made by
Taiwan's elected officials. .

"Clearly Chen believes that he and his party stand to gain
from getting tough with China, and the council [i.e. NUC]
decision was a part of this strategy. Surely this is not
beyond the understanding of those in the US Senate. .
Unfortunately for the large number of officials in the US
who would rather Taiwan just keep its mouth shut and sit
dutifully in the corner, every indication is that local
politicians will continue to shake things up. So since some
in Washington appear to need to have the situation spelled
out kindergarten-style, here it is: Until (at least) the
presidential election in 2008, expect cross-strait relations
to be a headache. There are going to be some bitter
political battles fought here between the DPP and the
Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT),and much of the fighting
will be over issues that strike at the heart of Taiwan's
relationship with China. That will mean the US will have to
be very proactive in dealing with Taiwan. Is it prepared to
be so?"

D) "NUC Spat May Herald New Sense of Mission"

Lo Chih-cheng, executive director of the Institute for
National Policy Research, opined in the pro-independence,
English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation: 30,000] (3/9):

"President Chen Shui-bian's announcement to `cease' the
National Unification Council and its guidelines highlighted
the US' passiveness in promoting cross-strait dialogue. .
Clearly, Washington is the only one that can push Beijing to
consider the restart of talks with Taipei. However,
although Washington regards itself to be a facilitator to
cross-strait talks, if it only advises Beijing orally, the
effectiveness has been proven limited. From now on,
Washington will need to take proactive moves to push Beijing
into a dialogue with Taipei.

"Chen's announcement has also underlined the necessity for
the US to review its balancing role on the cross-strait
issue. Washington has always defined the `status quo' in
the Strait as `no independence, no war' - based on the
principle that no one shall change the `status quo'
unilaterally. But its concern over the `independence' part
of the equation has far outweighed its concern for `no war.'
. US tolerance will only allow China to go further, pushing
Taiwan toward being united by China or even annexed. If
Taiwan does not fight back, then the `status quo' is likely
to drift toward a situation unfavorable to Taiwan.

"Therefore, since Washington has only had a minimal response
to Beijing's `no war' pronouncements, Taipei deserves the
right to draw a red line between itself and Beijing. . The
cessation of the unification council and guidelines is
Taiwan's declaration to the international society: We will
never tolerate China's irrational threats. In short, in
order to secure peace and safety in the Strait, in addition
to righting the military balance, we need to pursue
political deterrence. Taiwan must also strive for the right
to define and judge the `status quo,' while making its
bottom line clear and give itself an unassailable position.
The NUC incident was finally ended by `one cessation, with
each side making its own interpretation.' Through this
action, Taiwan has won the right to interpret the `status
quo' and to interpret what constitutes a change to the
`status quo.' This may well be a turning point."

E) "[Chen Shui-bian] Waiting for the Other Shoe to Drop"

Washington correspondent Norman Fu said in the "Washington
Outlook" column in the pro-status quo "China Times"
[circulation: 400,000] (3/9):

". Since the U.S. State Department dealt a heavy blow to the
Bian administration last week, the latter has become smarter
by laying low or even playing deaf and blind and not daring
to say anything. But still, [the Bian administration] is
trying to deceive itself and others by spreading the news
about how inconsistent various agencies inside the Bush
administration have been in handling Taiwan's `cessation of
the NUC and NUG.' In reality, the U.S. government, ranging
from the White House to the State Department and to the AIT
Taipei Office, have been acting uniformly and undisputedly
[regarding the NUC matter]. The Bian administration spread
the news out of wishful thinking, mainly because it is
trying to deceive those Taiwan people who have no clue of
what's going on. . [Let's] just hope that when `the other
shoe drops,' it drops lightly and not heavily and that it
`knocks Bian out.' ."

KEEGAN