KMT CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU'S "NEW DISCOURSE" ON

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000744

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC
BARBORIAK
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PREL TA KPAO TW

SUBJECT: KMT CHAIRMAN MA YING-JEOU'S "NEW DISCOURSE" ON
CROSS-STRAIT RELATIONS: THE VIEW OF LOCAL OPINION-
MAKERS



1. Summary: This cable is the first of two reports
looking at local media and commentators' take on
Taiwan's current political environment. This one looks
at Ma Ying-jeou's recent public discourse; the second
will focus on Chen Shui-bian. This analysis was
drafted by one of AIT's senior local employees in the
Press Section based on her view of commentary over the
last month. End summary.


2. In the wake of the KMT's landslide victory in the
December 2005 island-wide elections, KMT Chairman Ma
Ying-jeou has started to make public statements
concerning his and the KMT's positions on cross-Strait
relations, sparking heated discussions in Taiwan.
Perhaps the most daring and confusing was a KMT
advertisement published in the "Liberty Times" that for
the first time included "Taiwan independence" as a
possible option for the Taiwan people to determine
their own future. Observers are now debating whether
the KMT under Ma's leadership had reversed its cross-
Strait policy stance and moved toward a "middle-of-the-
road" direction, and whether Ma was being inconsistent
or just testing the waters to attract "light-Green"
voters.


3. Ma and almost all political observers believe he has
a virtual lock on the 2008 KMT presidential nomination.
Ma has always been extremely cautious in handling
sensitive topics such as Taiwan's national identity,
ethnic relations, and the issue of unification and
independence. As a native of Hunan Province born in
Hong Kong, Ma has long realized that the ethnic
conundrum and his attitude toward
unification/independence would be his greatest
vulnerability if he decides to run for the presidency
in 2008. Ma is clearly aware that he could be labeled
as "pro-China" or "selling out Taiwan" (as was former
KMT Chairman Lien Chan) by his pan-Green rivals if he
fails to handle these issues carefully. Even before Ma
was first elected Taipei mayor in 1998, he has been
preparing for these potential challenges, including
studying the Taiwanese and Hakka dialects; expressing
concern and goodwill to the family members of victims
of the 1947 February 28 Incident; refusing to criticize
former President Lee Teng-hui; declining to visit
mainland China; and hanging a huge portrait of an
aboriginal hero outside the KMT headquarters building.


4. Before the December 2005 island-wide local
elections, Ma rarely elaborated on his views in public
on cross-Strait issues; rather, he made only brief and
fractional comments on this topic when he could not
avoid comment altogether. Now Ma faces a contrary
problem: he has said too much. Ma's major statements on
cross-Strait relations since the election include: his
last mid-December interview with "Newsweek," in which
he said unification with China is "the KMT's ultimate
goal;" his article entitled "Taiwan's Pragmatic Path"
published in the "Asian Wall Street Journal"; several
speeches delivered during his recent Europe visit
elaborating on his vision on the future development of
cross-Strait relations. Some critics, as a result, are
criticizing Ma for throwing out a series of
contradictory statements on cross-Strait relations,
without any clear consistent approach now, with the
presidential elections still two years away. Others,
however, including some high-ranking KMT officials,
said these sensitive and controversial issues are like
rashes, and that it is better for Ma to deal with them
now in order to gain immunity later than to get hit by
them in the run up to the 2007 and 2008 legislative and
presidential elections.


5. When Chen Shui-bian visited London in December
1999, as he was about to run for the presidency in
2000, he gave a speech at the London School of
Economics and Political Sciences (LSE) on "The New
Middle Road for Taiwan: A New Perspective." In
February 2006, Ma delivered a speech at LSE on
"Bridging the Divide: A vision for Peace in East Asia",
in which he proposed the "3-C and 2-P" theory (namely,
both sides across the Taiwan Strait will move from
"confrontation" to "conciliation," and eventually to
"cooperation," in order to achieve "peace" and
"prosperity") as a prescription for breaking the cross-


Strait impasse. It may just be a historical
coincidence that Ma joined Chen in choosing the same
venue, LSE, to emphasize his own "middle course"
approach before the presidential election campaigns
began. But Ma enjoys more space to move towards the
"middle way." Each time Chen has had tried to do so,
he has been pulled back to the independence extreme of
the political spectrum eventually by the deep-green
elements. Ma's supporters, on the other hand, show
more tolerance of Ma's efforts to move towards the
middle way, as they regard him as the only hope for the
pan-Blue camp to regain the ruling power.


6. Jaw Shao-kang, a well-known TV/radio commentator,
argued that Ma should not have expressed his pro-
unification stance but rather should have limited
himself to re-stating his position against Taiwan
independence in line with the KMT's official position
in support of"anti-independence while remaining silent
about the issue of unification," a position clearly
aimed at "maintaining the status quo." "The DPP's plan
to push for independence while claiming it is
maintaining the status quo is a move that deceives
itself and others as well," Jaw said. "Unification,
unlike independence, has never been an issue of
importance for Taiwan now because only very few people
in Taiwan support immediate unification with China.
Even proponents of unification think that Taiwan and
China should not unify until conditions are ripe," Jaw
added. Academia Sinica Institute of Social Science
Assistant Research Fellow Hsu Yung-ming, on the other
hand, was quoted as saying that Ma's attempt to pull
himself out of the confusion created by his unification
comment has actually pushed him and the KMT deeper into
the confusion and, as a result, helped Chen dampen the
controversy sparked by Chen's proposal to abolish the
NUC and NUG. Other academic commentators argued that
Ma's emphasis on the "pragmatic path" was intended to
clarify his position to Washington. Tsai Wei, a
professor at National Chengchi University's Institute
of International Relations, maintained that the U.S.
prefers Taiwan leaders who support Taiwan independence
but have the foresight to refrain from publicly
declaring this support in order to meet the U.S.
national interests of "no war, no peace, no
unification, and no independence in the Taiwan Strait."
Chairman Ma, Tsai observed, "is trying to remove U.S.
doubts that he might get too close with China."


7. Ma's unilateral decision to acknowledge
independence as one of the options for Taiwan people,
however, invited internal criticism and spawned
division in his own camp. Former KMT Chairman Lien
Chan openly criticized Ma's statement, while KMT
Legislative Yuan (LY) President Wang Jin-pyng, who
himself promoted independence as one option for Taiwan
during his own unsuccessful run for the KMT
chairmanship against Ma last July, also challenged Ma's
one-man and top-to-down decision-making style. The pan-
Green camp, on the other hand, rejoined that Ma's
recent moves reflect his opportunist efforts to attract
"light-Green" DPP supporters and enhance his image as a
moderate presidential candidate who seeks a new "middle
way" or "pragmatic path."


8. Some analysts, however, praised Ma's new stance on
cross-Strait relations. "China Times Weekly" Chief
Editor Wang Mei-yu said in a TV talk show program that
Ma is the first KMT chairman to publicly acknowledge
that Taiwan independence can be one of the possible
options for the Taiwan people to decide their own
future and to invite family members of the 1947
February 28 incident victims to attend a KMT Central
Standing Committee meeting. "The DPP's recent moves,
from Chen's Lunar New Year's Day proposal to scrap the
National Unification Council (NUC) and National
Unification Guidelines (NUG) to the government's
release of a new research report naming Nationalist
Party's Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek as the chief
perpetrator responsible for the slaughter of over
10,000 Taiwan people in the February 28 Incident," Wang
noted, "target Ma himself." By putting independence,
unification and status quo as options for the Taiwan
people, Ma attempted to build a political firewall
around himself.




9. Compared to his processors, Wang continued, Ma has
demonstrated a completely different style of
leadership. "He chose to directly face, rather than
dodge, the `dark corners' hidden deep in KMT history,
including the February 28 Incident and White Terror,
and even acknowledged the need for the Taiwan people to
include independence as one of its possible options,"
Wang added. A "China Times" news analyst wrote that Ma
has remained consistent in his political philosophy
since serving as a ranking official at the Mainland
Affairs Council (MAC) 16 years ago, where he helped
draft guidelines establishing the NUC. The new KMT
chairman has "openly talked about something that his
predecessors Lien Chan and even Lee Teng-hui chose to
keep unsaid."


10. Ma demonstrated his posture as a probable
presidential candidate by making some bold statements,
for a KMT Chairman, in the course of his speech on
cross-Strait relations at the LSE. Ma, nevertheless,
did dodge some critical and sensitive questions in his
discourse. He did not, for example, tell the Taiwan
people whether the KMT will accept the decision if a
majority of Taiwan people choose that Taiwan should
declare independence. In addition, Ma also failed to
propose concrete means and strategies on how to lead
both sides of the Taiwan Strait from "confrontation" to
"conciliation," and eventually to "cooperation."


11. However one assesses Ma's statements on
independence and unification, it is clear that he has
taken the first steps toward laying out his campaign
platform for 2008. Many wonder, however, why he started
so early and why he stepped immediately into the DPP's
favorite set of issues.

KEEGAN