MEDIA REACTION: U.S. RESPONSE TO PRESIDENT CHEN'S

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000704

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC
BARBORIAK
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S. RESPONSE TO PRESIDENT CHEN'S
ANNOUNCEMENT OF CESSATION OF THE NATIONAL UNIFICATION
COUNCIL AND GUIDELINES



1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies gave
prominent reporting and editorial coverage March 4-6 to the
U.S. State Department's statement last Friday urging Taiwan
to unambiguously affirm that its February 27 announcement
did not abolish the National Unification Council (NUC);
President Chen Shui-bian's interview with the Japan-based
"Yomiuri Shimbun" last Friday in which he said it is not
entirely impossible to push for a referendum for the new
constitution in 2007; and the year-end Kaohsiung and Taipei
mayoral races. Almost all Chinese-language papers reported
on the State Department's statement on their front pages
March 4. The pro-unification "United Daily News" ran a
banner headline on its second page that read: "'Cessation'
Is the Bottom Line; If Taiwan Concedes, `the Whole Month's
Efforts Would Be Wasted.'" The pro-independence "Liberty
Times," Taiwan's biggest daily, however, ran a news story on
its page two with the headline: "Cease the NUC
[Functioning]? Abolish the NUC? James Huang: Taiwan and
the United States Have No Difference [in Wording]."

Several papers reported March 6 on an opinion survey
commissioned by the Institute for National Policy Research
and conducted by the China Credit Information Service Ltd.
that revealed that 87 percent of the respondents said they
think Taiwan's future should be decided by the 23 million
people on the island. The "United Daily News" spent a whole
page March 6 reporting on an academic seminar on "Cross-
Strait Relations and Taiwan's Security in the Wake of the
Cessation of the NUC and NUG."


2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, editorials in
the pro-independence "Liberty Times," "Taiwan Daily" and
limited-circulation, English-language "Taipei Times" all
urged the government to stick to its position in ceasing the
functioning of the NUC by following mainstream Taiwan public
opinion. A commentary in the "Taipei Times" pointed out
three major benefits for Taiwan brought about by President
Chen's decision on the NUC. An "Apple Daily" commentary
said as long as Chen does not go too far, and enables the
United States to regain control, then the matter about NUC
and NUG can be resolved. Soochow University Political
Professor Lo Chih-cheng said in an interview with the pro-
unification "United Daily News" that the State Department's
statement was aimed at clarifying matters with Beijing, not
at pressuring Taiwan. Editorials in the pro-status quo
"China Times," pro-unification "United Daily News," and
limited-circulation, pro-unification, English-language
"China Post" all criticized Chen for making a big mistake
with the NUC matter and ruining the mutual trust Taiwan has
with the United States. A "United Daily News" editorial
also urged Chen to stop pushing for a referendum on Taiwan's
new constitution. A "China Times" editorial said Washington
and Beijing are engaging in the "co-management" of cross-
Strait issues for the first time. End summary.

A) "Taiwan Should Stick to Its Position of [Asserting Its]
Sovereignty Even When Facing Pressure"

The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000]
editorialized (3/4):

". [U.S. State Department Deputy Spokesman Adam] Ereli's
statement [Friday] was totally unnecessary because our
government's clarification, including President Chen's seven-
point statement made publicly following the National
Security Council meeting Monday, was sufficient enough to
remove doubts about relevant questions - namely, the
cessation of the NUC and NUG does not involve any change of
the status quo and that [we will not allow] Taiwan's status
quo of democracy, freedom and peace to be unilaterally
altered. It is noteworthy that since Ereli is the deputy
spokesman of the State Department and his statement was
published in writing on the State Department's web-site, it
might be a result of China's complaint to the United States
[about Taiwan], as claimed by Foreign Minister James Huang.
In other words, perhaps [Ereli's statement] was made by the
United States in response to China's pestering. .

"What's more important is that even facing severe internal
and external obstruction, the cessation of the NUC and NUG
has finally been completed. The move indicated solidly that
Taiwan must have its own ideas and insistence with regard to
issues concerning its own future. . President Chen has
suffered great pressure from the United States on his path
to deepening Taiwan's democracy, including his push for
holding [the island's first-ever] referendum and the


cessation of the NUC and NUG. Chen's firmness and
[fearlessness to] endure insults in order to achieve his
objectives is worth wide support of the Taiwan people.
Following these two experiences, Taiwan people should
realize that despite many external obstacles, Taiwan's
assertion, be it a referendum to determine its own future or
a move to define the cross-Strait status quo, will be
realized eventually as long as it sticks to the universal
values of democracy. ."

B) "Opposition to the Cessation of the NUC and NUG Is Akin
to Opposition to [Taiwan's] Mainstream Public Opinion"

The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000]
asserted (3/6):

". The fact that Taiwan is a democratic country and Taiwan's
future should be determined by the 23 million Taiwan people
is an undisputable theorem. The cessation of the NUC and
NUG is simply a move to get rid of one layer of the many
restrictions on Taiwan people, and the other moves,
including the rectification of Taiwan's name and writing a
new constitution should, without doubt, be promoted. ."

C) "China and Those Who Take the China Road Stir up Trouble;
the United States Should Respect Taiwan People's Right of
Choice and Prevent China from Invading Taiwan"

The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 100,000]
editorialized (3/4):

". Immediately following Chen Shui-bian's announcement to
cease the functioning of the NUC, China started to complain
to the international community [about Taiwan] and assert
that `cessation equals abolition.' The pan-Blue politicians
and pro-China media outlets also echoed Beijing to smear the
government efforts to return dignity to Taiwan people by
saying that `cessation of the NUC equals Taiwan
independence.' All [such moves] thus aroused the United
States' doubts about Taiwan. .

"Taiwan and the United States share common interests in many
aspects and the two have no evident difference over cross-
Strait issues. China's mobilizing the united-front force to
smear Taiwan is actually aimed at sabotaging the substantive
interests between Taiwan and United States. China is really
targeting the United States when it intends to cope with
Taiwan. The deeper China's force gets into Taiwan, the more
dangerous Taiwan's situation becomes, and the less favorable
the situation becomes for the United States. . Taiwan's
democracy is founded because of the United States' promotion
[of democracy]; the United States [thus] has the
responsibility to protect Taiwan from being invaded by
China. As the `world's policeman,' the United States has no
reason to overlook the Taiwan people's move to pursue their
legal rights or to push Taiwan to China. The United States
should support the Taiwan people in holding [the right to
determine] their own future, and the cessation of the NUC is
to preserve the room for choice for the Taiwan people and
their decedents. . "

D) "[Taiwan] Must Lose No Time in Pushing for the Writing of
a New Constitution and Rectifying [the Island's] Name, And
in Protecting Taiwan's Security via `De jure Independence'
in Order to Prevent China from Attacking Taiwan!"

The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" [circulation: 100,000]
said in an editorial (3/5):

". Chen Shui-bian's announcement regarding the cessation of
the NUC and NUG was aimed at giving back Taiwan people their
dignity and the opportunity to control their own destiny. .
To ensure its national security, Taiwan must push for the
writing of a new constitution and rectifying the island's
name. [Taiwan needs to] institute a Taiwan constitution and
get rid of the ROC constitution. The relationship between
Taiwan and China is, legally speaking, a relationship
between two states, namely, an international relationship.
Only when being placed under an international framework
(such as the U.S.-Japan security alliance) can Taiwan be
protected from China's unreasonable and ruthless demands. .
To ensure Taiwan's position in the international community,
the top priority is to get rid of the ROC system, and the
proactive way [to do so] is to push for the writing of a new
constitution and rectifying Taiwan's name. ."


E) "Don't Ignore Good That Came from End of NUC"

Leou Chia-feng, doctoral candidate in London University's
department of politics and international studies at the
School of Oriental and African Studies, said in the pro-
independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation:
30,000] (3/4):

"Prior to the commemoration of the 228 Incident, President
Chen Shui-bian announced that the National Unification
Guidelines will cease to apply and that the National
Unification Council (NUC) would cease to function. However,
some alarmist pro-unification media outlets, politicians and
other people in Taiwan launched a series of attacks on Chen
and against independence without consideration for the
positive results of Chen's decision.

"First, the most important result of doing away with the NUC
and its guidelines is that it has forced the Chinese
Nationalist Party (KMT) to acknowledge that independence can
be an option for Taiwan's future. Over the decades, the KMT
has vilified independence to the point where it has become
tantamount to war, leaving no room for rational debate.
The KMT ... has also been forced to respond to the pressure
brought by the debate over the council and its guidelines to
acknowledge for the first time that the people of Taiwan
have the right to choose independence. ...

"Second, Chen has created an opportunity to make the US
fully understand Taiwan's situation and needs. Although the
US openly opposed the passage of China's "Anti-Secession"
Law last year, it has not taken any substantive action to
prevent the cross-strait "status quo" from tilting in
China's favor, but has sat idly by as Beijing has developed
its carrot-and-stick approach in dealing with Taiwan. At
least Chen's decision to scrap the NUC and its guidelines
has made the US begin to look at Taiwan's difficulties in
maintaining the `status quo.'

"Although the US was not very understanding of Chen's
intentions at first, statements by the State Department
indicate that Washington is finally beginning to understand
Chen's decision. Third, the incident has made Taiwanese
understand the difference between the green and blue camps'
cross-strait and diplomatic policies. The pan-blues'
statements about the abolition of the NUC and its guidelines
have all along been built on the premise that, so long as
Taipei acts like a good boy, Beijing and Washington will
reciprocate with a lollipop. The pan-green camp, on the
contrary, believes that absolute obedience will continue to
blur one's own viewpoint and damage one's own interests. In
the case of the NUC and its guidelines, reality shows that
if we dare fight for our interests and engage in pragmatic
negotiations, we will be able to achieve a lot more. There
is no need to restrict or confine ourselves. ... We
certainly should not feel complacent due to the abolition of
the NUC, for there are indications that before the matter
was finalized, Washington had put tremendous pressure on
Taipei. ."

F) "Taiwanese Will Decide for Themselves"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times"
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (3/5):

"Just what exactly was the action taken by the Taiwan
government toward the National Unification Guidelines and
National Unification Council (NUC)? There has been some
confusion and debate over the past week. Without question,
the official wording used by the government and President
Chen Shui-bian was that the guidelines had `ceased to be
applied' and that the NUC had `ceased to operate.' However,
in the media and even among the general public, whether
deliberate or unintentional, the action taken has often been
simply referred to as "abolished." That this seemingly
innocent discrepancy in reference was sufficient to invite
the concern of the US government goes to show how the
unification-independence issue strikes a raw nerve in many.

"Whatever differences may exist between `abolished' and
`ceased to operate and apply,' they are at most conceptual.
Some say that if the guidelines and NUC have been abolished,
they no longer exist, and therefore unification is no longer
an option for Taiwan. It should be pointed out that neither
the NUC nor the guidelines are tangible. Until recently,
their existence has supposedly not been in doubt. However,


has this existence helped Taiwan to move any closer to
unification? The answer is of course not.
Regardless of whether Taiwan has moved further away from or
closer to unification over the past years, that movement had
nothing to do with the guidelines or the NUC. Instead, the
popular will of the people of Taiwan remains almost the sole
determinant. ... Even if the guidelines and NUC have
genuinely been `abolished,' unification will remain an
option -- so long as the Taiwanese want to keep it an
option. Now that the NUC and guidelines have been confirmed
as continuing to exist -- except that they now cease to
apply and cease to operate (since when have they ever
operated or applied anyway, some may ask) -- does that make
unification any more plausible than before when they were
erroneously considered to have been `abolished?' Better
still, before and after they ceased to apply and operate,
was there any difference in terms of the likelihood of
Taiwan unifying with China? The answers to these questions
are only too obvious.

G) "The United States Can Eat [i.e. Win Over] Both Sides of
the Strait"

Columnist Antonio Chiang wrote in the mass-circulation
"Apple Daily" [circulation: 500,000] (3/6):

"The U.S. Department of State demanded in a strongly-worded
statement that Taiwan unambiguously state whether the NUC
still exists. Chinese leaders also condemned in a stern
voice Ah-bian's word games at the Chinese People's Political
Consultative Conference. Both Washington and Beijing have
demonstrated a tough attitude. The situation appears not
good. In fact, the real winner may be the United States. .

"The timing and technique of Ah-bian's cessation statement
has disturbed the Americans and China. But it may not
necessarily be in conflict with the U.S. strategic interest.
As long as Ah-bian does not go too far, can find a way out,
provide China with an explanation, and enable the United
States to regain control, then this matter can be resolved.
.

"This is a false issue whether it is NUC abolishment or
cessation. Both U.S.-Taiwan and cross-Strait relations were
further damaged after Taiwan went through this disturbance.
Our internal abstract space seems bigger. But the external
substantive space will only shrink. The loss will outweigh
the gain."

H) "Lo Chih-cheng [Speaks of] Crisis over Cessation of the
NUC and NUG; [Taiwan Should] Mend Taiwan-U.S. Mutual Trust
in a Low-Profile Manner"

Journalist Huang Ya-shih wrote following an interview with
Soochow University Political Professor Lo Chih-cheng in the
pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000]
(3/6):

". The United States' statement regarding the cessation of
the NUC and NUG [last Friday] was mainly aimed at clarifying
to Beijing not at pressuring Taiwan. Washington's move did
not surprise me, and it will happen again before and after
the meeting between [U.S. President George W.] Bush and
[Chinese President] Hu Jintao [slated for April]. But I
don't think the United States will really ask Taiwan to put
in writing that `Taiwan did not abolish the NUC and NUG.'
This move will be like to ask President Chen to commit a
political suicide. [We] should not underestimate the United
States' political wisdom and its understanding of Chinese. .

"Taiwan wanted to `make noise' not to `make trouble' by
using the issue of cessation of the NUC and NUG. No one can
restrain Chen from saying or not saying some things. But
now is time for prudence of words and behaviors. [Chen] has
[successfully] moved two steps forward and one step back,
and [no one knows] whether [he] will have to move a few
steps back soon. ."

I) "How Can a Ruler Lead His People into an Unknown
Disaster?"

The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000]
editorialized (3/6):

". That's right, when [speaking of] playing schemes, Uncle
Sam was defeated this time. They underestimated the


toughness of Bian's administration and were not vigilant
enough about Taiwan's situation, nor did they have the
awareness to take any precautions. Washington first
accepted unwillingly [Taiwan's] word game of `cease to
function,' then it got angry when the Taiwan authorities
trumpeted and boasted about its victorious achievement,
demanding that Taiwan announce unambiguously that it did not
abolish the NUC and NUG. Now the United States has re-
adjusted its position by insisting that altering any of the
`Five No's' pledges is to change the status quo; the move is
actually to see that Chen return to the original framework
under escort.

"The Americans had no clue of the real situation at all.
Shouldn't the ruling party have trumpeted loudly? Well, the
whole point [of the NUC and NUG issue] is to trumpet loudly!
In essence, be it abolition or cessation of the NUC and NUG,
it is a symbolic move. Will it still be symbolic if the
move is small and unnoticeable? The direction of [Chen's]
road is very clear now. On the one hand, Chen wants to
duplicate the victory that he enjoyed when he [successfully]
tied [Taiwan's first-ever] referendum with the presidential
election [in 2004], and on the other hand, he wants to
extend his political influence. That's why he decided to
push for the referendum on Taiwan's new constitution, which
is reminiscent of Taiwan independence, before he steps down,
to put Taiwan into the severest confrontations between
independence and unification, and to intensify conflicts
across the Taiwan Strait, in an attempt to facilitate the
DPP's chances of winning the presidential election in 2008.
. Since Chen wants to present a new constitution reminiscent
of Taiwan independence, he first had to get rid of the
`incantation hoop' made of the `Five No's' pledge. When he
tore apart the last `No,' the other `Four No's' also fell
apart. Now Chen can do whatever he wants. .

"For the U.S. policy-making authorities, what matters now no
longer lies in Chen's credibility but in how to effectively
remove the fuse of Taiwan independence, or at least not to
let conflicts rise across the Taiwan Strait. But the whole
process of `cessation of the NUC and NUG' this time exposed
that the United States could be so vulnerable when facing a
Taiwan leader who doesn't care about anything; perhaps [such
a revelation] even surprised the United States itself. If
the United States failed to stop issues such as the
abolition of the NUC [this time], what will it do to stop
something more serious in the future? The cross-Strait
issues are of critical importance to the United States'
national interests. If Washington continues to view Taiwan
from its old perspective, it might find the island very
difficult to deal with in the future. ."

J) "Cheating Both Insiders and Outsiders: Does the DPP Still
Want to Hold the Joyful Rally for Celebrating the NUC
Cessation?"

The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation:
400,000] editorialized (3/4):

"Chen Shui-bian has gotten into a big trouble. The U.S.
authority has shown its hand to him. . The truth has been
disclosed: in this `NUC cessation' disturbance, Chen Shui-
bian and the DPP were, in fact, playing a double game,
`cheating both insiders and outsiders. .'

"The fact that Chen Shui-bian dared to maneuver the U.S.-
China-Taiwan triangular relationship in such a manner is
actually not because of his courage, wittiness, and ability
to manipulate the global situation. It is only that he
believes: the two nuclear powers, the United States and
China, will unlikely start a world war just because of my
small word game of `NUC cessation/abolishment,' will they?
Furthermore, if the United States and China want to punish
me Chen Shui-bian, the 23 million people of Taiwan will be
penalized as well! These ideas of Chen Shui-bian are full
of opportunism and taking chances. They are definitely not
out of bravery, rationality, and strength. Chen's trickery
and fabrication has repeatedly proved effective in domestic
politics. The Americans were played tricks on during the
`anti-missile/buy-missile referendum. However, this time
when the same trick was played once again in front of the
Americans, it was obviously like a cart pushed and crashed
on the wall!

"[One] should never down play the seriousness of the U.S.
`March 2 statement.' It can be described as the most


personal-directed and the toughest-worded formal written
document in dozens of years of U.S.-Taiwan interactions. (In
the past, no such wording was seen even when treaties were
abolished or diplomatic relations severed.) The United
States not only has had different assessment on Chen Shui-
bian, but also must have had [new] realization about the
DPP's unpredictability. ."

K) "The Next Step: Chen Shui-bian Should Immediately Stop
[Promoting] the Referendum on a New Taiwan Constitution"

The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation:
400,000] commented in an editorial (3/6):

"The successful U.S. prevention of Chen Shui-bian's denial
of the `One Will-not' is just an appetizer. The main dish
is that [it] has prevented Chen from moving recklessly
toward the restricted zone of denying the `Four No's' and
trying to [have] a `referendum on a new Taiwan constitution'
by means outside the institutionalized route. .

"If Chen could make a touchdown in scraping the `One Will-
not,' the next step will naturally be proceeding toward
scraping the `Four No's.' Then, [promoting] a `referendum
on a new Taiwan constitution' would be an open script.
Therefore, the United States took the opportunity when it
resolved the `One Will-not' crisis to point to the `Four
No's'. The U.S. strategy is to demand Chen publicly promise
as he declared `NUC cessation' (not `NUC abolishment') that
`any constitutional reform will follow the current
constitutional procedures.' . Faced with this situation, we
believe, Chen should proactively put an end to the ongoing
`referendum on a new Taiwan constitution' movement, which is
holding its 10,000 scheduled discussion sessions now. ."

L) "United States and China Operate Co-Management of Cross-
Strait [Issues] for the First Time"

Professor Chen Yu-chun, Director of Chinese Culture
University's Graduate School of American Studies opined in
the pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000]
(3/4):

". Beijing's warnings and criticism against Bian will not
stop now, but its strategy direction will be `fighting
together better than fighting alone.' In other words,
Beijing will join the United States, the international
community, and Taiwan people to jointly restrain Chen Shui-
bian's move that `attempts to change the status quo' by
describing him as the `troublemaker' for cross-Strait
stability and `peace saboteur' for the Asia-Pacific region."

M) "Wearing out Our Welcome"

The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China
Post" [circulation: 30,000] editorialized (3/5):

"Over the past few weeks, President Chen Shui-bian's
administration has played a game of words that has caused
serious harm to our special relationship with the United
States. ...
According to the U.S. State Department, Taipei has promised
not to diverge from the carefully selected script, under
which the NUC and guidelines were not officially
`abolished.' Foreign Minister James Huang has blamed the
problem on erroneous news media reports and claimed that the
matter was cleared up after discussions with officials from
the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT). Once again,
officials are unfairly blaming the news media for allegedly
being the source of all their problems.

"Regardless of what was cleared up with AIT, the fact
remains that our American friends have been forced to parse
words and sift through videotapes of press conferences to
determine whether our government is still trustworthy.
Given the unique geopolitical situation that Taiwan is
situated in, we simply cannot afford to place Washington in
such a precarious position. ... It would seem not to be
rocket science to assume that it would not be wise to
irritate the United States by making promises that our
officials can't keep for a single day. It would also seem
improper for our American friends to be kept guessing as to
what the genuine intentions of our leaders are, despite
weeks of intense communications behind the scenes. But that
is precisely what our government leaders are doing, putting
our long-term security and interests at serious risk. ...



"But over the past few years, President Chen's
administration has squandered this positive development by
constantly changing the status quo and making messes for the
U.S. to help clean up. We will not be surprised if the
United States decides it is better off leaving us to sleep
in the bed we have made for ourselves. President Chen
should realize the long-term harm he is causing by offending
and irritating the United States before our welcome is
completely worn out."

N) "Chen Hopes History Will Remember Him More Kindly"

Joe Hung said in the conservative, pro-unification, English-
language "China Post" [circulation: 30,000] (3/6):

"Don't be surprised. It's Chen Shui-bian the defense lawyer
at his best. Only a day after the U.S. Department of State
officially asked him to reinstate one of the five `no's' he
had pledged, President Chen told the Yomiuri Shimbun of
Tokyo on Friday he will give the people of Taiwan a `timely,
relevant and viable' Constitution before he steps down on
May 20, 2008. .

"A consummate defense counselor, Chen insists his decision
to `cease to function' did not either `abolish' or
`terminate' the Council, whose National Unification
Guidelines concomitantly `ceases to apply.' The fact is that
he meant to abolish the organization President Lee created
but told Washington what he announced should be considered
to merely `freeze' it. Washington went along - until reports
quoted or misquoted his aides as giving an accurate
interpretation of his intended wording. In a way of
responding to the ultimatum of Foggy Bottom, President Chen
defiantly spelt out his time schedule for the new
Constitution to the world's largest newspaper. He did so,
stubbornly convinced that Washington could do nothing to
harm him as it didn't many times in the past couple of years
when he defied Uncle Sam.

"Chen would be able to get away almost unscathed this time.
But at what cost to Taiwan! We have lost what little
national credibility was left. Oh, yes. Chen wants to be
remembered in history as the president who sets Taiwan on
course to independence. History will record Lee Teng hui as
the president who transformed Taiwan from an autocratic
state to a democracy. Much as he may wish, Lee has no chance
to lead Taiwan to independence. Chen, his unanointed heir,
has no such chance, either. But the younger man has whipped
his party into line to obey his marching orders for
independence.
On this year's Peace Memorial Day, President Chen addressed
a meeting to mark the fifty-ninth anniversary of the
February 29 Incident of 1947. He iterated his decision to
terminate the National Unification Council and asked his
loyal audience if he was wrong in doing so. `Am I wrong?' he
asked seven times. There was a chorus of `no.'

"Let me answer his question: `Mr. President, you are not
wrong. You've made no mistakes. The president is always
right. It's your supporters who were wrong. They voted you
in.' History will not be kind to President Chen.
Grandchildren of our grandchildren will remember him as the
president who got reelected because he had been shot at by a
mysterious gunman presumed to be an assassin."

KEEGAN