MEDIA REACTION: PRESIDENT CHEN'S PLAN TO ABOLISH

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 000595

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC
BARBORIAK
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

SIPDIS



E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: PRESIDENT CHEN'S PLAN TO ABOLISH
THE NATIONAL UNIFICATION COUNCIL AND GUIDELINES



1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies
continued to provide extensive reporting February 25-27 on
Chen's plan to abolish the National Unification Council
(NUC) and National Unification Guidelines (NUG),but
coverage also focused on a controversy over the new
electronic toll collection system for Taiwan's freeways, the
February 28 Incident of 1947, and the Philippine military
camp standoff. The pro-independence "Liberty Times,"
Taiwan's biggest daily, ran a banner headline on its front
page February 27 that read: "[Taiwan] Has Obtained
Washington's Understanding and Will Announce [the Decision
to] Abolish the NUC and NUG Today." The newspaper also
carried a news story on its page two February 25 with the
headline: "The National Security Council Submitted Its
Assessment Report on the Abolition of the NUC and NUG [to
Chen] Last Friday. Chen Will Not Reiterate the Four No's
Pledge When Announcing [His Decision to] Abolish the NUC and
NUG." The pro-independence "Taiwan Daily" carried a letter
supporting Chen's plan to abolish the NU written
by Taiwan's "Hand-in-Hand Alliance" to U.S. President George

W. Bush via AIT Taipei on its front page February 26. The
pro-unification "United Daily News" ran a front-page story
February 27 with the headline: "[Taiwan] Will Avoid Using
[the Word] `Abolish;' NUC Will Cease to Apply." The sub-
headline added: "Bian to Host High-Level National Security
Meeting Today to Decide on the Matter. [Chen] Will Not
Reiterate the `Four No's' Pledge And Has No Intention of
Changing the Status Quo Across the Taiwan Strait. The
United States Will Openly Say It 'Understands'." The pro-
status quo "China Times," on the other hand, ran a banner
headline on its front page February 27 that said:
"Washington and Taipei Negotiating On the Wording: to
`Abolish,' `Freeze' Or `Suspend' [the NUC and NUG]. Bian
Will Make a Final Decision Regarding the Abolition of the
NUC and NUG." The newspaper also ran an article on an
interview between Taiwan's CTI TV and an unnamed senior U.S.
official on its page three February 27; the U.S. official
was quoted as saying that the "Taiwan Relations Act is not a
blank check with which Taiwan can make any kind of repeated
demands it wants," and that even though the United States
takes its commitment seriously, it is "not an open-ended
commitment to any particular government on Taiwan to
completely ignore America's interests."


2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "Liberty
Times" editorial said "What matters today is not whether
Taiwan `abolishes the NUC and NUG' or the `Four No's' pledge
but whether China will `renounce the use of force' against,
and its `intention' to annex, Taiwan." Washington
correspondent Nadia Tsao also said in the "Liberty Times"
that since Chen is determined to abolish the NUC and NUG,
what Taiwan needs to do now is damage control. An editorial
in the limited-circulated, pro-independence, English-
language "Taiwan News" argued that scraping the NUC can
defend Taiwan's interests and the status quo. Journalist
Sean Liu analyzed Chen's attitude in abolishing the NUC in
the "United Daily News; according to Liu, "Chen seems to
want to use the `abolition of the NUC and NUG' to further
nail down his `one country on each side of the [Taiwan]
Strait' doctrine. In addition to warning Beijing not to
just contact Taiwan's opposition parties and forcing the KMT
to state clearly its stance on cross-Strait relations, Chen
also hopes that the international community, including the
United States, will not use `one China' to define the status
quo across the Taiwan Strait any more." A separate "United
Daily News" editorial strongly questioned the DPP for
supporting Chen's move to abolish the NUC and NUG and asked
if the DPP has abandoned its `middle way' approach. End
summary.

A) "The Key Lies in the Fact that China Must `Renounce the
Use of Force' against, and `Unification' with, Taiwan"

The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000]
asserted in an editorial (2/27):

". The cause and result of the so-called `Five No's' pledge
are in fact very clear; namely, the sentence that `as long
as Beijing has no intention to use force against Taiwan' is
a necessary prerequisite. Without this prerequisite, the
inference - the `Four No's' - naturally will not exist.
Beijing has never renounced [its intention] to use force
against Taiwan since 2000; furthermore, it is increasing its
military threat against the island. The United States'
repeated warnings that military strength across the Taiwan
Strait will become imbalanced and its call for Taiwan to
pass the [U.S.] arms procurement bill as early as possible

are all the best evidence. . In other words, the foundation
of the `Five No's' pledge was long ago destroyed by China
itself. .

"The so-called `[move to] abolish the NUC and NUG' is
nothing but a move to fulfill democracy. Moreover, Taiwan's
status quo shows that it is already an independent and
democratic sovereign state. The so-called `changing of the
status quo' should thus refer to `the pursuit of unification
[with China].' Both the NUC and NUG pursue [the goal of]
unification; they are thus in themselves an attempt to alter
the status quo. .

"Those who support ultimate unification [with China] called
the `Five No's' pledge the greatest common denominator
between Washington, Beijing and Taipei. But in reality, the
common interests of the three sides do not lie in the `Five
No's' pledge but in the statement that `China has no
intention to use force against Taiwan.' It will be good and
welcome news for regional stability and for the Chinese
people as well if China thoroughly renounces the use of
force against Taiwan and its military expansionism. As a
result, what matters today is not whether Taiwan `abolishes
the NUC and NUG' or the `Four No's' pledge but whether China
would `renounce the use of force' against, and `unification'
with (i.e. renounce [its intention] to annex),Taiwan."

B) "United States Hopes That Bian Could Do Damage Control
with Regard to the Impact Caused by His Abolition of the NUC
and NUG"

Washington correspondent Nadia Tsao said in the "Washington
Observation" column in the pro-independence "Liberty Times"
[circulation: 600,000] wrote (2/26):

"Officials of the Bush administration [indeed] have doubts
about Chen Shui-bian's credibility. But it would be too
absurd [to believe] the rumors that Washington will review
the Taiwan Relations Act or withdraw [its commitment to]
provide military protection to Taiwan. First, even if
Taiwan abolishes the NUC and NUG, Washington is clearly
aware how far the Chen Shui-bian administration, under the
restraint of Washington and Taiwan's opposition parties, can
move along on the road to Taiwan independence. Second, the
fact that the United States has continued arms sales, and
has developed strong non-official ties, with Taiwan after it
established diplomatic relations with Beijing shows that
Washington has its own profound strategic considerations.
In the face of China's growing strength without a clear
intention, Washington needs Taiwan, a democratic ally, to
restrain Beijing. It will do Washington more harm and no
good if it `penalizes' Taiwan and jeopardizes the foundation
of Washington-Taipei ties. To tell the truth, it will
really be a nightmare for Washington if Taiwan announces
today that it is interested in unifying with China.

"Nonetheless, even those Americans who are close to Taiwan
believe that the abolition of the NUC and NUG does not come
without exacting a price [with regard] to Washington-Taipei
ties. What Taiwan needs to do now is damage control;
perhaps Taiwan can at least reduce the impact [of the
abolition of the NUC and NUG] to a minimum if it could let
[U.S. President George W.] Bush and Secretary of State
Condoleezza Rice hear Taiwan's voices via certain channels."

C) "Dumping NUC Defends Taiwan's Interests"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taiwan News"
[circulation: 20,000] editorialized (2/27):

"Since all indications are that President Chen Shui-bian is
resolved to abolish the anachronistic NUC and its NUG, it is
time for the president and the Democratic Progressive Party
to fully prepare a possible backlash from Taiwan's domestic
opposition and also from some portions of the international
community. . We fully support President Chen's decisive
move, but also strongly urge him and the DPP government to
incorporate effective skills of persuasion and public
explanation to generate domestic support and international
understanding. .

"We urge the Bush administration to continue unprejudiced
bilateral communications and take account of the fact that
the abolition of the NUC and NUG aims to safeguard against,
not promote, `unilateral changes' in the cross-strait
status. . By habitually unilaterally blaming Taiwan for
`making trouble' across the Taiwan Strait, the international

community has inflicted a grave injustice to the Taiwan
people who have adhered to democratic values of peace,
freedom and self-determination and instated has encouraged
Beijing to continue its military intimidation and political
squeezing against Taiwan.

"In response, the DPP government must utilize its resources
to launch proactive and extensive campaigns to explain
President Chen's decision to the world community. Such
efforts should stress that the source of `trouble' lies in
Beijing's military deployments against Taiwan and its anti-
secession law and that the abolishment of the NUC and NUG
has nothing to do with `provoking' the PRC but much to do
with safeguarding Taiwan's democracy. The next couple of
months will be a critical time for Taiwan to appeal to the
international community to respect our right to defend our
own national interests through guaranteeing the democratic
principle of self-determination and by ensuring peace based
on democracy and equality in the Taiwan Strait."

D) "Why Is Bian so Tough This Time?"

Journalist Sean Liu commented in a news analysis in the pro-
unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000]
(2/27):

"The hidden wrestling between Washington, Beijing, and
Taipei over [President Chen's plan to] `abolish the NUC and
NUG' over the past month has finally come to the moment of
showdown. . Judged by the remarks of Chen and other
relevant officials, Chen seems to want to use the `abolition
of the NUC and NUG' to further nail down his `one country on
each side of the [Taiwan] Strait' doctrine. In addition to
warning Beijing not to just contact Taiwan's opposition
parties and forcing the KMT to state clearly its stance on
cross-Strait relations, Chen also hopes that the
international community, including the United States, not to
use `one China' to define the status quo across the Taiwan
Strait any more. .

"In the face of Washington's grave concerns, the
Presidential Office seemed to want to express, via certain
appropriate ways, that it has no intention to change the
status quo, in an attempt to release Washington's
backlashes. Perhaps following constant communications
[between Taipei and Washington], the United States'
backlashes will not be as strong as the opposition parties
imagine them to be. Naturally, the United States will not
give up helping to defend Taiwan just for [Chen's] move, but
it definitely has the power to let Taiwan feel Washington's
displeasure by using some matters that Taiwan cares but
which will not jeopardize the balance across the Taiwan
Strait. .

"Chen is about to announce his move to abolish the NUC and
NUG. People can soon tell whether Taiwan can break through
the attacks from both the United States and China. Even
though Beijing may over-react like it used to and Taiwan can
thus win the international community's sympathy, the
Presidential Office must not always count on its enemy's
mistakes to decide on its major policies."

E) "Has the DPP Thoroughly Abandoned Its Middle-of-the-Road
Route?"

The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation:
400,000] editorialized (2/26):

". [Chen] has been flip-flapping between his plan to
`rectify Taiwan's name and write a new constitution' and his
statement that it is a move `that deceives himself and
others as well;' and between his plan to `abolish the NUC
and NUG' and his [assurance] that [such a move] will not
`alter the status quo.' [Chen] has no `faith' and no
`policy' but only `schemes and power' in mind. Now Chen has
kept the DPP on a short leash via [DPP Chairman] Yu Shyi-
kun, and again held Taiwan as a hostage via the DPP. He put
the Taiwan independence topic on the table regardless of any
consequences jus to resolve his personal leadership crisis;
in the meantime, he has pushed the DPP's route to a narrower
end. .

"Chen is holding the DPP as a hostage. As a result, the
Taiwan people, Washington, and Beijing all view Chen as
capricious; by the same token, they will all view the DPP as
unreliable. They will all distrust Chen, and they will all
distrust the DPP. They all view Chen as backpedaling, so

will they view the DPP. Is it really wise and worthwhile
for the DPP to put such a spell on the party's door just for
Chen's sake? ."

KEEGAN