MEDIA REACTION: U.S. ARMS SALES TO TAIWAN

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 003682

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S. ARMS SALES TO TAIWAN



1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies continued to
give significant reporting and editorial coverage October 28-30 to
AIT Taipei Director Stephen Young's press conference last Thursday;
to the reactions by Taiwan's ruling and opposition parties to
Young's remarks on arms procurements; and to the remarks by a senior
U.S. official showing strong support for Young. News coverage also
focused on the year-end Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral races and other
political issues. The pro-status quo "China Times" front-paged a
banner headline October 30 that read "KMT's Bottom Line: Pick One of
the Three Weaponry Items; Green Light for the Anti-submarine
Aircraft Budget." The pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's
largest-circulation daily, on the other hand, ran a banner headline
on page two October 30 that said "Arms Procurement Bill to Run a
Blockade Tomorrow; KMT and PFP Give Order to Block [It]." The
"China Times" also carried the results of its latest survey October
28, which showed 66 percent of those polled believe Young's remarks
were akin to diplomatic intimidation. The same poll also found
Taiwan people's favorable impression of the United States has
dropped from 68 percent in 2003, when the United States attacked
Iraq, to a new low of 45 percent.


2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "Liberty Times"
editorial said the United States adopted a tough position with
regard to arms procurements because it disdains the fact that some
political parties in Taiwan put their own interests ahead of the
island's national interests. A column in the mass-circulation
"Apple Daily" said when Washington talked about the "mess," it was
aimed at warning the KMT. An editorial in the limited-circulation,
pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" predicted that
"the arms bill is likely to remain a hostage of the deadlocked
legislature." A "China Times" editorial said Young's remarks were
by no means conducive to breaking the stalemate on the arms
procurement bill. An editorial in the pro-unification "United Daily
News" strongly criticized Young's tone at the press conference,
calling it a tone of "an arrogant, bossy, and overweening [colonial]
governor." A "China Times" commentary said the United States'
excessive arrogance has humiliated Taiwan, but Taiwan will not meet
Washington's national interests. An editorial in the
limited-circulation, conservative, pro-unification, English-language
"China Post" said Washington "overreacted" and that "all that is
needed is a little more patience on the part of Uncle Sam the
referee to call an end to Taiwan's inter-party political football
game." End summary.

A) "How Can the Normal Functioning of the Legislative Body Continue
to Deteriorate Like This?"

The pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000]
editorialized (10/30):

"... In reality, the United States adopts a tough stand with regard
to the arms sales [to Taiwan] because it disdains the fact that
under a democratic system, some political parties in Taiwan put
their interests and position ahead of the national interests and
totally disregard the survival of their people. The U.S. government
evidently believes that the pan-Blue camp's approach has violated
the normal practices in a democracy. In addition, in terms of
Washington's global strategy, the United States first engaged itself
in a war in Afghanistan in the wake of the September 11 terrorist
attacks, followed by a war in Iraq. No matter how powerful the
United States' national strength may be, it began to feel incapable
of doing everything it wanted to do, and the anti-war sentiment is
rising in the United States as well. Meantime, China's military
expansion is underway in East Asia, together with North Korea's
nuclear test and other rogue means such as test-firing ballistic
missiles for the purpose of coercion. Should China attempt to start
a war while Taiwan does not yet possess the deterrent force to
defend itself, there may not be enough time for the United States to
come to Taiwan's aid, even if Washington intends to assist the
island. Also, the situation does not seem very optimistic as to
whether the American people are willing to sacrifice their lives for
a country which is unwilling to shoulder the responsibility of
self-defense. ..."

B) "Whose Mess?"

Columnist Antonio Chiang commented in the mass-circulation "Apple
Daily" [circulation: 500,000] (10/30):

"... The international situation has undergone dramatic changes over
the past six years. Even if Taiwan decides to buy all the weaponry
items in the arms procurement package, the prime time of Taiwan-U.S.
relations is gone for good. Both Taiwan and the United States will
each have a new government in 2008, and this will add double
variables and create a new impact to Taipei-Washington relations.
There are many factors that affect Taiwan-U.S. relations, and arms
procurements is just one of them; A-Bian's credibility and
constitutional reforms are also factors. But what's most important
are the changes in U.S. strategic interests, while the Taiwan issue

is subordinate to this big international framework. Now the
Americans have no faith in Taiwan's future direction, either. That
is why they are using the arms deal and making a fuss about it. ...
In reality, when the United States talked about the mess, it was
aimed at telling the KMT that if Taiwan fails to buy those weapons
now, and if the island, given the drumbeat for KMT-CCP cooperation,
is leaning toward China in 2008, no one will be able to clean up the
mess then."

C) "Taiwan's Defense in US Hands"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation:
30,000] editorialized (10/29):

"Comments by US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice last week
regarding the US' commitment to help Taiwan defend itself were
nothing new. However, they came in the wake of regional tension
over the nuclear test by North Korea and in response to questions
over Taiwan's role in international efforts to deal with the crisis.
... On the other hand, it just so happens that Rice's comments were
made at around the same time that the US-China Economic and Security
Review Commission - a US government advisory panel - was getting
ready to approve a report that highlights China's advanced military
capabilities. ...

"The supplemental [arms procurement] budget was the product of a
compromise between the ruling and opposition camps to begin with,
approving greatly reduced funds in comparison with the funding
initially requested for the arms procurement program. In light of
these events, the arms bill is likely to remain a hostage of the
deadlocked legislature. The likelihood of the nation becoming less
reliant on US protection is remote."

D) "Stephen Young's Remarks Are by No Means Conducive for Resolving
the [Stalled] Arms Procurement Bill"

The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000] (10/28):

"... Perhaps Stephen Young is aware, or maybe he's not, that the
arms procurement, among all the contentious or issues in Taiwan, has
long surpassed its pure nature of national defense security; it even
has little to do with Taiwan-U.S. relations and is basically deeply
entwined with the emotions and sentiments of the ruling and
opposition parties in Taiwan. If Young does not believe [the
theory], why not take a look at the reactions of the ruling and
opposition parties over the past few days. Neither side really
echoed the perspective emphasized by the United States or
objectively discussed whether there is indeed a military imbalance
in the Taiwan Strait. Instead, they just directly focused in on the
leitmotiv of 'whether the United States supports Bian.' Is this the
message that Young originally expected to convey? When this issue
was quickly simplified to this level, will it move toward the
direction that the United States expected it to? ...

"It is understandable that, given the fact that the arms deal has
been stalled for five years, the United States, no matter how much
patience it has, has to complain. But no matter how urgent the
issue becomes, [the United States] should communicate [with Taiwan]
via informal lobbying channels. Sooner or later, this controversy
will have to be resolved. ... Speaking openly in a tone that was
close to threatening to challenge the Legislative Yuan has not only
evidently trespassed the line of diplomatic protocol but will by no
means be conducive in resolving the issue."

E) "Stephen Young's Tone as a [Colonial] Governor Outrages the
Public"

The pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000]
editorialized (10/28):

"U.S. representative to Taiwan Stephen Young's making a big show to
deliver an ultimatum via a press conference has pushed the arms
procurement bill deeper into deadlock, because no country with
rationality and dignity will follow Young's orders under such
threatening and humiliating circumstances. ... Young's tone was by
no means that of a qualified and civil 'ambassador'; it was in
reality the tone of an arrogant, bossy, and overweening [colonial]
governor. Do we really have to put up with that?

"We support 'reasonable arms procurements'; even if Taiwan signs a
'peace treaty' with Beijing, it definitely must maintain a
'reasonable military buildup.' Taiwan people originally supported
the arms procurements, but the stalled arms procurement bill has
reflected very profound changes in public opinion and democratic
thinking. Young must truly understand these profound issues in
Taiwan's politics and should not operate in the opposite way and
bully the weaker using his power in a tone of a [colonial] governor.
..."

F) "Taiwan Did Not Eat Its Meal for Free"

The "Short Commentary" column in the pro-status quo "China Times"
[circulation: 400,000] (10/30):

"... Everybody knows that Taiwan's security is reliant on the United
States, but this dependence is not merely a burden for the United
States, which has, in reality, gained huge benefits in return. This
is the main reason why the U.S. cross-Strait policy remains stable.
Should [Washington] give up or change its consistent policy, it must
be because major changes have happened to the United States'
strategic interests. [Should this happen], the United States will
not soften its stance, even if Taiwan begs to seek [the U.S.]
support. ...

"All Taiwan people acknowledge the reality that Taiwan's security
has to rely on the United States, but they have also paid a price
for it over the past decades. Even though the bilateral
relationship is not completely equal, neither side is allowed to
dictate and take whatever it likes. Excessive imbalance and
arrogance has humiliated Taiwan, but it certainly will not meet the
U.S. national interests."

G) "A New Political Football"

The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post"
[circulation: 30,000] (10/30):

"... The Bush administration overreacted. The people of Taiwan
certainly will not emulate the South Koreans by going to the streets
to protest against its warnings. But their pride is seriously hurt
by the way the United States treated their country. They don't
understand why Washington should issue what they believe is an
ultimatum now. Given time, Ma Ying-jeou will deliver his promise.
All that is needed is a little more patience on the part of Uncle
Sam the referee to call an end to Taiwan's inter party political
football game."

YOUNG