MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS, PRESIDENT CHEN

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 003395

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A


TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS, PRESIDENT CHEN
SHUI-BIAN'S COMMENT ON CONSITUTIONAL REFORM



1. Summary: Taiwan dailies (October 3) focused on the Taipei
District Prosecutor's Office decision to close the Sogo Department
Store Ownership case on Monday without indicting First Lady Wu
Shu-chen. Taiwan dailies also focused on the casualties suffered by
mainland Chinese tourists when their bus plunged off a mountain road
into a vineyard in Central Taiwan on Monday night.


2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an op-ed article in the
pro-status quo "China Times" said the United States, in order to
preserve its national interests, will not let President Chen
Shui-bian unilaterally change the status quo. An opinion piece in
the pro-unification "United Daily News" said remarks by the U.S.
State Department toward President Chen have left no leeway and are
akin to humiliation. The editorial in the conservative,
pro-unification, English-language "China Post" said that pushing for
constitutional reform is an old trick for President Chen to attract
fundamentalists and added that a defeat in the Kaohsiung mayoral
election in 2006 will certainly be a blow to President Chen and the
DPP. End summary.


3. U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS

"A-Bian's New Constitution Incident in the Eyes of the United
States"

Chen I-shin, professor of Graduate Institute of American Studies at
Tamkang University, opined in the pro-status quo "China Times"
[circulation: 400,000] (10/03) that:

"Assistant Secretary of State for Asian and Pacific Affairs, Thomas
Christensen, held a closed-door meeting in late September in
Washington D.C. Participants in the meeting included officials of
the State Department's Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs and
AIT Director Stephen Young, who returned to D.C. on September 22 to
attend a meeting with U.S. ambassadors posted in East Asia.
According to media reports, there were two sides in the meeting: one
side advocated ignoring Chen Shui-bian's plan to push for a new
Constitution; and the other, hawkish side proposed to quash it. The
result was that the hawkish side got the upper hand. In fact, from
the Bush Administration's recent appointments of new personnel to
implement its China policy and active U.S.-China relations, we can
see that the United States will definitely not allow Taiwan to
change the status quo in the Taiwan Strait unilaterally. ...

"... What makes people curious is [AIT Director] Stephen Young's
position in this debate. Although he is not optimistic about the
red-clad Anti-Bian Action, yet from my perspective he can only have
a personal preference. As a U.S. official, he must act according to
the U.S. national interests and may not have his own position. No
matter how Stephen Young looks at President Chen Shui-bian's new
Constitution incident, he is looking at the question from the
perspective of U.S. interests."


4. President Chen Shui-bian's Comment on Constitutional Reform

A) "Four Worries ... the United States Has Left no Leeway"

Loh I-cheng, a retired diplomat wrote in an op-ed article in the
pro-Unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (10/03)
that:

"... U.S. Department of State Deputy Spokesman Tom Casey's remarks
on September 25 only consist of a few short sentences, and they seem
to have nothing new in them when one first hears them. Actually,
very serious warnings are hidden inside the diplomatic language. I
really consider it the most serious U.S. remarks toward Taiwan over
the past six years. In addition to reiterations such as "the United
States does not support independence for Taiwan" and "the United
States continues to be opposed to unilateral changes in the status
quo by either side," there are four new worries about A-Bian's
personal capabilities.

"What are these worries? The original text in English is : 'the
fulfillment of President Chen's commitments is a test of his
leadership as well as his ability to protect Taiwan's interests, its
relations with others and to maintain peace and stability in the
Straits.'

"... In the past, even during [the holding of a] referendum and
disputes about abolishing the National Unification Council, the
United States has never questioned A-Bian so harshly. Casey's
conclusion is simple: the United States will remember A-Bian's
'repeated promises' and 'expect him to carry them out.' There is no
leeway to bargain.

"Spokesman Sean McCormack condensed Casey's remarks as 'President
Chen's fulfillment of his commitments will be a test of leadership,
dependability and statesmanship.' To 'test' the leadership of

another country's head in diplomatic remarks is equal to saying that
his/her leadership is not that trustworthy. It has left no leeway,
almost to the extent of humiliation."

B) "Chen vs. His Party, People"

The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post"
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (10/03):

"... The U.S., Taiwan's mentor and protector, has openly put Chen to
a 'test' of his 'leadership, dependability and statesmanship' to
fulfill his repeated commitments not to unilaterally change the
status quo.

"At rallies marking the DPP's birthday, Chen ,defying warnings from
both Washington and Beijing against any move to change the island's
Constitution and alter its territorial definitions, reiterated his
'impossible missions' to push for a new charter as well as U.N.
membership under the name of 'Taiwan.'

"Chen's China-provoking rhetoric was an obvious attempt to please
fundamentalist pro-independence voters, who account for only 20
percent of the population.

"The DPP has no major achievements to speak of and no other cards to
play except the old trick of raising tensions in the Taiwan Strait.
It has to rely on its core pro-independence voters for support in
the December mayoral polls for Taipei and Kaohsiung. A defeat in
the southern stronghold would deal a crushing blow to both Chen and
the ruling party. ..."

WANG