MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS, CAMPAIGN TO OUST

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 003178

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - DAVID FIRESTEIN
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A


TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS, CAMPAIGN TO OUST
PRESIDENT CHEN SHUI-BIAN



1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies continued to
give significant coverage September 13 to former DPP Chairman Shih
Ming-tech's sit-in rally to oust President Chen Shui-bian -- in some
cases, nearly half of their front sections were devoted to the "Oust
Chen" campaign. The pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's
biggest daily, however, is the paper that gave the least coverage to
the "Oust Chen" campaign and instead, focused its reporting on a
possible general strike in an attempt to force Chen to step down; a
"Support Taiwan" rally planned by the Taiwan Society on September 16
on Ketagalan Boulevard; and DPP Chairman Yu Shyi-kun's trip to the
United States. The "Liberty Times" ran a banner headline on page
five that read "Concerned about Taiwan's Political Situation, United
States Upgrades Level [of Officials] to Meet with Yu."


2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an opinion piece in the
pro-unification "United Daily News" cast doubts on whether the
United States will be able to maintain a "neutral" stance with
regard to Taiwan's current political situation. A "Liberty Times"
analysis commented on the movement to oust President Chen outside
the system, saying the move will only consume KMT Chairman Ma
Ying-jeou, since Chen already has had nothing to lose. End
summary.


3. U.S.-Taiwan Relations

"Yu Lobbying in Washington; Americans Support Bian?"

Loh I-cheng, a retired Taiwan diplomat, opined in the
pro-unification "United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (9/13):

"... It is true that among the so-called 'neo-conservatives' who
have been employed at high levels by President George W. Bush, few
have a very shallow understanding of Taiwan. In particular, the DPP
government has spent a huge amount of money over the past six years
in making lawful donations via the Washington-based 'Formosan
Association for Public Affairs' to assist the campaigns of American
congressmen. It also spent government funds sending officials like
Chiou I-jen, Tsai Ing-wen, and Joseph Wu to fly first-class to the
United States and, accompanied by TECRO officials, to lobby U.S.
congressmen. Over these years, such a 'slow poisoning' job must
have harvested some results; it has more or less affected the U.S.
perception of Taiwan's domestic political situation, at least on the
middle, operational level.

"This does not mean that neo-conservative leaders like Vice
President Cheney, Defense Secretary Rumsfeld, or former Deputy
Defense Secretary Wolfowitz, who later transferred to head the World
Bank, are also deceived. These people put their full attention on
core issues such as Iraq and the war on terrorism, and let those
below them worry about cross-Strait issues, which they do not view
as priority issues. Inside the State Department, even though former
Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick, in charge of the grand
China area, met with Ma Ying-jeou openly when the latter visited the
U.S., he still deemed mainland China as his main target at work.
After Zoellick resigned and moved to work in the private sector,
Assistant Secretary Christopher Hill became the key person in charge
of China policy. Hill has a more profound knowledge of Japan and
Korea than of China, and focuses his attention on the nuclear issue
on the Korean Peninsula. As for cross-Strait issues, he can only
trust the old team, and this is the situation [in the State
Department] now.

"Both the ruling and opposition parties in Taiwan have shown
excessive respect to the United States, and sometimes they think too
highly of the AIT Taipei director. Former [AIT Director] Douglas
Paal may be arrogant because of his talents or ability; he
nonetheless faithfully carried out the State Department's
instructions. ... In 2004, when the sit-in rally protesting the
March 19 shooting of the president became unmanageable, Paal called
on Lien Chan and James Soong to relay A-Bian's promise to organize a
truth investigation committee, and thus resolved the stand-off. ...
Given the fact that Chen's promise ... meant nothing, and plus the
DPP government's all-out boycott, the truth [of the shooting]
remains a mystery even now. Paal felt that he was just passing a
message then and did not say he guaranteed that A-Bian would carry
out his promise. The pan-Blue camp, on the other hand, was like a
dumb person tasting bitter herbs, and was unable to express its
complaints, and until now no one really knows what was going on
then.

"In the DPP's eyes, however, this incident is the hard evidence
showing that the United States secretly supports Taiwan
independence. Stephen Young arrived following Paal's departure, and
this made A-Bian very happy. Five years ago, when Young departed
Taiwan in the capacity of the deputy director of AIT, A-Bian
personally decorated him with the Order of Brilliant Star with
Special Grand Cordon. Given the fact that Young was then just a
charge d'affaires at a representative office of a country that has

no formal diplomatic ties with Taiwan, [to accept such an award] was
actually a move that damaged diplomatic precedents. No wonder Young
told [Tainan County Magistrate] Su Huan-chih that he doubted how
long the sit-in to oust Bian would last under such a blistering sun.
No one outside knows whether the AIT Taipei Office has revised such
a heartless and not totally objective view in its cables to the
State Department over the past few days. This is the reason why
some scholars doubt whether the United States is able to maintain a
neutral stance. ..."


4. Campaign to Oust President Chen Shui-bian

"Trying to Oust Bian outside the System Is Actually a Move That
Consumes Ma"

Journalist Tzou Jiing-wen noted in an analysis in the
pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000] (9/13):

"Chen Shui-bian is a person who has descended from his political
peak and whose term of office has started its countdown. When the
sit-in to oust Bian started to target him and when its sole mission
focused on the passive goal of forcing him to step down, this
movement itself was doomed to become an asymmetrical 'battle.'
Under the circumstances in which A-Bian has nothing to lose, the
backfire effect naturally triggered by the 'Oust-Bian' movement is
actually producing an impact on some other people.

"The first to bear the brunt of such a backfire effect is not the
DPP leadership, as imagined by those people who want to oust Bian.
This is because there are comprehensive and complicated factors
involved with regard to whether the DPP will succed in the Taipei
and Kaohsiung mayoral races, the legislative election, or even the
next presidential election, the results of which cannot be
determined by Bian's problem alone. If a utilitarian move like
'drawing a line [separating the DPP and Bian] can resolve such a
problem, why [would the DPP] need its rival political party to
remind it again and again? ...

"The 2004 election already showed a balanced division between two
major powers. Anyone who aspires to shoulder the responsibilities
of leading the nation will have to vie for the key of the 50 'plus
one' in order to succeed. The movement to oust Bian outside the
system, which may look overwhelming on the surface, is actually a
'minus one' move, which is consuming the hesitant Ma Ying-jeou."

YOUNG