PRESIDENT CHEN DEFENDS HIMSELF AGAINST RECALL

C O N F I D E N T I A L AIT TAIPEI 002138

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2031
TAGS: PGOV PREL TW
SUBJECT: PRESIDENT CHEN DEFENDS HIMSELF AGAINST RECALL
EFFORT


Classified By: AIT Acting Director David J. Keegan,
Reasons: 1.4 (b/d)


1. (C) Summary: President Chen presented a spirited defense
against the Pan-Blue recall effort in a two-hour televised
"report to the people" on June 20. Chen's speech, delivered
90 percent in Taiwanese, was intended to shore up support
among the Pan-Green base rather than appeal to swing voters.
Chen's answers to scandal allegations against First Lady Wu
Shu-chen were very carefully parsed and will not lay the
allegations to rest. Chen's speech is unlikely to change
many minds here, and public support for the President will
probably continue to be low. However, the Pan-Blue does not
have the votes to pass its recall motion on June 27, and
public opposition to the Pan-Blue recall movement is
increasing. This evening (June 21),Ma will rebut President
Chen's presentation, arguing that there are inconsistencies
in Chen's current and previous statements about specific
scandal allegations involving First Lady Wu Shu-chen. End
Summary.

Appealing to the Base
--------------


2. (SBU) Responding to the opposition's effort to recall
him, President Chen Shui-bian on June 20 offered a spirited
defense against the Pan-Blue's ten charges in a prime-time
two-hour televised "report to the people." (Note: The
Chinese text of Chen's speech is on the Presidential Office
website (www.president.gov.tw). We have not seen an English
translation. End Note.) Chen spoke from a large room in the
Presidential Office Building, seated at a table, flanked by
Presidential Office (PO) Secretary General Mark Chen and
Deputy Secretary General Cho Jung-tai, who introduced the
President. On the wall behind Chen was a large ROC flag, a
picture of Sun Yat-sen, and in green Chinese calligraphy the
words "Report to the People." There was an audience of
journalists, who were not allowed to ask questions, seated at
round tables.


3. (SBU) Chen spoke almost entirely in Taiwanese, an
indication that he was appealing for support primarily from
his Pan-Green base. A lawyer himself, Chen's "report to the
people" sounded very much like the concluding summation of a
defense attorney in a trial. Most of Chen's speech was a
point-by-point rebuttal of each of the ten charges laid out
against him in the Pan-Blue recall motion. Most of the
recall charges were political in nature, accusing the
President, for example, of making inappropriate personnel
appointments and pursuing policies that brought economic
instability and ethnic tension, damaged relations with the
U.S., and caused cross-Strait tension. Chen, who thrives on
political rhetoric, was very much in his element addressing
such issues. In addition to arguing that some charges did
not merit recall and to providing evidence to refute various
charges, he also attacked the Kuomintang's credibility by
citing examples of its past offenses.

Careful Response to Corruption Charges
--------------


4. (SBU) The most damaging charge against Chen and the one
that has attracted the greatest public concern by far is that
the President has allowed his family members, relatives, and
close advisors to engage in graft and corruption. Chen
parsed his words very carefully in responding to specific
allegations against First Lady Wu Shu-chen over her
acceptance of Sogo Department Store gift certificates and an
unrelated possible meeting between her and a political donor.
While saying more than he had said previously, Chen's
statements will not lay these cases to rest.

Emotional Close
--------------


5. (SBU) Toward the end of his speech, Chen turned
emotional, saying he had become a target of opposition hatred
and that he would be willing to sacrifice himself for Taiwan
if that would restore social harmony. Chen stressed his long
public service career and said that his fate was in the LY
and the 23 million people of Taiwan. Responding to Ma's
warning that he "would die an ugly death," Chen said that "if
making me die an ugly death is necessary to ease resentment,
I am willing, I am willing to sacrifice myself for Taiwan.
Just pull the trigger."

Mixed Response
--------------


6. (C) DPP Legislator Shen Fa-hui told AIT that during a DPP
LY caucus meeting the morning of June 21 following Chen's
speech, hard-line voices calling for confrontation with the
Pan-Blue over its recall effort were noticeably stronger.
According to the legislator, most of the DPP legislators were
not concerned with the specifics of Chen's response to the
scandal allegations. Speaking personally, however, Shen said
that he did not believe Chen had given a clear response to
the allegations.


7. (C) DPP Legislator Lin Cho-shui suggested to AIT that
Chen's intention was not to answer questions that have been
raised but to strengthen his support from the Pan-Green base.
Chen was not aiming at swing voters. They will not support
Chen but they are increasingly opposed to the recall
movement, believing the Pan-Blue has gone too far. Lin
pointed out that according to public opinion polling, the
number of recall opponents is on the rise and far exceeds the
number of Chen supporters. Chen's speech will have little
effect on opposition to the recall drive, he predicted.


8. (C) The Legislative Yuan (LY) is heading to a showdown
vote on the recall motion on June 27. While the Pan-Blue
does not have the two-thirds LY majority that it would need
to pass the motion, the sense of Blue-Green confrontation is
increasing. Largely because of this sense of confrontation,
Pan-Green politicians are rallying strongly behind Chen
following his speech. The Pan-Blue has been predictably
negative about Chen's speech.

Tonight's Drama
--------------


9. (C) Tonight, KMT Chairman Ma Ying-jeou will deliver a
formal rebuttal to Chen in a prime-time televised speech. Ma
is expected to speak for thirty minutes and then respond to
media questions. KMT Legislator Joanna Lei, who helped Ma
prepare his speech, told AIT that Ma will highlight
inconsistencies between Chen's current and previous
statements about scandal allegations involving First Lady Wu
Shu-chen. Ma will remind the public of Chen's earlier
promise to step down if it were proven that any member of the
first family had accepted Sogo gift certificates from four
key players in a buyout fight. Chen qualified this statement
in his speech last night when he said his promise applied
only to gift certificates received "directly" from one of the
four key players. Lei said Ma will also raise discrepancies
in previous and current statements by the Taiwan First Family
responding to allegations about contributions from a
political donor.

KEEGAN