MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 002005

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC BARBORIAK
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A


TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS



1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused
coverage June 10-12 on the pan-Blue and pan-Green camps' discussion
Monday of the agenda for an extra legislative session; the pan-Blue
camp's rally in Taipei Saturday calling for President Chen Shui-bian
to step down; AIT Chairman Raymond Burghardt's visit to Taiwan; the
havoc caused by heavy rain in central and southern Taiwan; Vice
President Annette Lu's possible role in a post-Chen era; and
investigations into President Chen's son-in-law's insider trading
scandal and questionable gifts received by First Lady Wu Shu-chen.
Almost all papers carried reports on inside pages June 10 of the
United States' welcoming President Chen's reaffirmation of the Four
Nos pledge. The pro-status quo "China Times" ran a banner headline
on page two June 10 that read "Meeting with Raymond Burghardt and
Reiterating Four Nos Pledge, Bian Proves to United States that He Is
More Reliable Than Lu." The same newspaper also ran the results of
its latest survey June 10, which showed that 43 percent of those
polled support the motion to recall Chen, and 46 percent hope that
Chen will step down himself. In the same poll, 46 percent of
respondents support Lu's succession, and 31 percent said they
support Lu to be the president while incumbent Legislative Yuan Wang
Jin-pyng heads the Cabinet.


2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, an analysis in the
pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest daily, said
President Chen pitched in his chip in time to woo the United States,
as he realized that the U.S. is his most important ally at the
moment. An editorial in the limited-circulation, pro-independence,
English-language "Taipei Times" criticized KMT Chairman Ma
Ying-jeou's attempt to recall Chen, saying the move is akin to a
frontal assault on the United States' "beloved cross-Strait 'status
quo.'" An opinion piece in the mass-circulation "Apple Daily" said
the moment that AIT Chairman Raymond Burghardt returns to the United
States is not the end of U.S.-Taiwan tensions, but the beginning of
how to shape future U.S.-Taiwan relations. A "China Times"
editorial predicted that Taiwan will have to undergo a period marked
by confrontations between the ruling and opposition parties. End
summary.

A) "To Woo the United States, Bian Pitches in His Chip in Time"

Washington correspondent Nadia Tsao commented in an analysis in the
pro-independence "Liberty Times" [circulation: 600,000] (6/10):

"Just at the moment when Chen Shui-bian is facing a recall crisis,
the United States suddenly got the Four Nos pledge it has been
waiting for for nearly six months. Chen, on the other hand, also
got a certain endorsement from the State Department's generous
response. Chen obviously decided that the United States is his most
powerful ally at this moment. ...

"Even though the United States reiterated more than once that it
will not interfere in Taiwan's internal affairs, Washington's
political influence in Taiwan is a fact that cannot be covered up.
The State Department's statement is worth pondering in many
resspects. For example, the statement made no effort to hide the
Bush administration's joy, as evidenced especially in its sentences
such as 'these measures will not change during his remaining two
years in office.' [The United States] even urged Beijing to take
parallel steps to fulfill its 'obligations' and reach out to
Taiwan's duly elected leaders. [The statement] has indirectly
proved that the deal over the Four Nos pledge included the terms
that Washington used in its call for Beijing to push for the latter
to engage in direct talks with the Bian administration.

"Even though one cannot over-interpret the State Department
statement as Washington's endorsement of Chen to finish his
remaining term of office, Chen is evidently adding chips that are
favorable for him on the U.S. scale, in an attempt to counterattack
the opposition parties or even restrain the pressure from within the
DPP. It is, however, noteworthy to see whether Chen will give up
his voice with regard to cross-Strait issues after having clearly
shown his stand to the United States."

B) "The Foppish Barking of Ma Ying-jeou"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation:
30,000] editorialized (6/10):

"Surprise, surprise. It appears that Chinese Nationalist Party
Chairman Ma Ying-jeou is not the strong and upright leader that the
public regularly swoons over. In the space of seven days, Ma has
abandoned his temperate position on the controversy enveloping the
Presidential Office - not because of any meaningful development in
the investigation of the son-in-law of President Chen Shui-bian, but
because of hardline forces he is unable to control or ignore within
the KMT and the People First Party (PFP).

"Critically at this time, the US has given Chen a boost for his
cooperation on cross-strait affairs. Washington, if nobody else,
recognizes that campaigning for removal of a president from office
for the alleged misdemeanors of others is nothing less than a
frontal assault on the beloved cross-strait 'status quo.' The fact
that Ma toured the US only a few months ago depicting himself as a
champion of this 'status quo' provides all the evidence to declare
Ma a disingenuous, limp and flaky heir to his idol and former
employer, dictator Chiang Ching-kuo. You can't be a 'shuaige'
[Chinese characters meaning handsome guy] fop and morph into a power
hungry thug-in-waiting for too long without the strain beginning to
show."

C) "Burghardt Alone Cannot Decide Whether [Washington] Supports Bian
Or Not"

Assistant Professor Yu Pen-li at Tamkang University's Graduate
Institute of American Studies opined in the mass-circulation "Apple
Daily" [circulation: 500,000] (6/12):

"... It is not difficult to tell by looking back at history that
when Raymond Burghardt returns to the United States, it does not
indicate the end of tensions between the United States and Taiwan,
but the beginning of how to shape future U.S.-Taiwan relations.
Will A-bian be able to maintain stability in Taiwan's political
situation if he continues his rule? Will the new leader be able to
hold on to the new situation and stabilize cross-Strait relations if
A-bian steps down? Will Taiwan people's anti-Bian awareness be
transformed into the power for the United States to respect Taiwan
people's choice? All these possibilities are the direction that
Washington needs to cautiously evaluate in the future. Without a
doubt, it is not up to Burghardt to decide whether Washington wants
to support Bian. As a result, one will easily lose focus if he
tries to examine Burghardt's every move using a magnifying glass.
..."

D) "Taiwan Perhaps Will Have to Undergo Period in Which Ruling and
Opposition Parties Use up Each Other!"

The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000]
editorialized (6/10):

"... In the confrontation over the next months, the pan-Blue camp
will naturally not give up so easily, since it has launched the
recall campaign with strong public support. In order to consolidate
its ruling position, the DPP, too, will not easily back out. ...
Judging from the current situation, only three factors will make the
confrontation end earlier: One is unexpected external pressure (the
U.S. involvement, for example); the second is an unexpectedly quick
court ruling; and the third is unexpected exposure of more
information. We of course do not wish to see any external forces
intervene in Taiwan's internal affairs, and many people perhaps do
not expect that the investigation agencies will wake up suddenly.
As a result, the only thing that Taiwan people can look forward to
is, like the Watergate case, undeniable evidence provided by a Deep
Throat, with which the media and public opinion will exert immense
pressure. In that way maybe all the political impasses may be
resolved. ..."

YOUNG