MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001986

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC BARBORIAK
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A


TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS



1. Summary: Taiwan's major Chinese-language dailies focused their
coverage June 9 on the pan-Blue and pan-Green camps' moves in the
wake of President Chen Shui-bian's decision to relinquish some of
his powers; AIT Chairman Raymond Burghardt's visit to Taiwan; the
Taiwan stock market's dive on Thursday; and investigations into the
questionable gifts received by First Lady Wu Shu-chen. The
pro-status quo "China Times" front-paged that "Lee Teng-hui Supports
Bian to Step Down, Lu's Succession, and Wang to Head Cabinet." The
pro-independence "Liberty Times," Taiwan's biggest daily, however,
ran a front-page banner headline that said "Lee Denies He Wants Bian
to Step Down." The "China Times" ran a news story on page two that
said "Setting Up Fire Wall, Bian Starts to Launch Big
Counterattack;" and ran a banner headline on page three that read
"Lu Will Adhere to Three Principles If She Succeeds [Chen]:
Respecting the Constitutional System; Will Not Announce Taiwan
Independence; and Will Be Caretaker President."

All papers gave extensive coverage to Burghardt's meeting with
President Chen Thursday. Several papers said Chen reiterated his
"Four No's" pledge to win U.S. support, while some said Bian told
Burghardt that even though he has relinquished some of his powers,
his presidential powers remain unchanged. The "Liberty Times" ran a
banner headline on page two that said "Meeting with Burghardt and
Talking about Current Disputes, Bian Is Confident That He Can Get
Over Recall Crisis." The same paper also quoted Burghardt on page
five as asking why there are opposition parties in Taiwan that do
not care about the island's national defense. The "China Times" ran
a banner headline on page three that read "United States Conveys
Three Major Messages to Bian: [Recent Scandals] Should Be Dealt
with According to Law; No Cross-Strait Incidents; Bloody
Confrontations Must Be Avoided."


2. In terms of editorials and commentaries, a "China Times"
editorial criticized Chen for trying to fight back and safeguard his
presidency immediately after he announced last week that he would
relinquish some of his powers. A "United Daily News" analysis said
Chen has no other choice now but to befriend the United States in an
attempt to meet the pan-Blue camp head-on. An editorial in the
limited-circulation, conservative, pro-unification, English-language
"China Post" urged Chen to resign to avoid social unrest. End
summary.

A) "Having Just Relinquished Powers, [Chen] Immediately Starts to
Fight back in Full Gear"

The pro-status quo "China Times" [circulation: 400,000]
editorialized (6/9):

"... In addition to making remarks so that the scandals will not
burn up to himself, Chen Shui-bian is also doing several things
simultaneously to safeguard his presidency. On one hand, he joined
with powers inside the DPP to resist Annette Lu, who is moving
busily in preparation for action, and on the other hand, he
reiterated the Four No's pledge to the United States, hoping to win
Washington's support. But for Lu, now is an unexpected window of
opportunity; if she fails to seize this opportunity to take over the
presidency, it will never be her turn when it comes to the DPP's
nomination two years from now.

"Chen has made careful calculations, and he believes that his move
to relinquish some of his powers will put the other Green leaders in
a tenser balance of terror and sow discord inside the Blue camp.
This strategy has indeed produced certain effects, but they lasted
for just a while. The anti-Bian camp quickly re-organized and
concentrated and has gained new momentum. The calculating Chen
always believes he can maneuver through a gate, but he didn't
realize that he is stuck in a tunnel that narrows down. He fails to
realize that he has incurred widespread indignation and discontent,
which might force him to step down in the end. Neither did it ever
occur to him that his move to proactively relinquish some of his
powers has unexpectedly reminded the public that resigning may be a
viable option for him. As a result, those who believe that he
should proactively step down quickly soared from 34.4 percent to
47.4 percent. Chen may likely face an embarrassing situation if he
still tries to mobilize people in an attempt to protect himself.
..."

B) "Bian Has No Choice but to Befriend United States to Meet Blue
Camp Head-on"

Journalist Sean Liu commented in an analysis in the pro-unification
"United Daily News" [circulation: 400,000] (6/9):

"... Chen Shui-bian, who is deeply involved in the suspected
scandals surrounding the First Family, knows very clearly that the
pressure he faces now does not come only from the pan-Blue camp.
The public's outrage toward the First Family has reached a boiling
point, and even some members within the pan-Green camp criticized
him harshly. This is exactly why he had to relinquish some of his
powers. Bian, who is under severe attack from both sides inside
Taiwan, finds it difficult to take pressure from outside Taiwan, in
particular, from the United States. He thus has no other choices
but to befriend the United States so as to be able to meet the
pan-Blue camp head-on. ...

"Raymond Burghardt's visit offered Chen a chance. Bian had been
unwilling to clearly reiterate the 'Four No's' pledge in the wake of
the 'cessation of the National Unification Council.' Having stayed
firm for a few months, Chen proactively yielded Thursday,
articulating his pledge to Washington via Burghardt, in an attempt
to make a friendly gesture and hope that the United States will
trust that he is predictable and that supporting him to stay on will
best meet U.S. interests. ..."

C) "To Avoid Social Unrest, Chen May Have to Resign"

The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post"
[circulation: 30,000] (6/9):

"President Chen Shui-bian, who has been mired in a political crisis
since the detention last month of his son-in-law Chao Chien-ming
over multiple scandals, now must consider resigning to avert a wave
of political and social turmoil that could plunge Taiwan into
unprecedented difficulties. ... The various alleged crimes
committed by the president's son-in-law alone would not have angered
opposition politicians and the public so much as to demand his
resignation. His past abuses of power that prompted consistent
political confrontations; his failure to fight corruption that has
permeated through the first family, the Presidential Office and
major government departments; and his inability to manage the
economy all have contributed to the current outburst of public
anger."

YOUNG