MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS

UNCLAS AIT TAIPEI 001842

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR INR/R/MR, EAP/TC, EAP/PA, EAP/PD - ERIC BARBORIAK
DEPARTMENT PASS AIT/WASHINGTON

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: N/A


TAGS: OPRC KMDR KPAO TW
SUBJECT: MEDIA REACTION: U.S.-TAIWAN RELATIONS



1. Summary: Taiwan's dailies gave significant news and editorial
coverage May 27-30 to alleged involvement in the snowballing insider
trading scandal by President Chen Shui-bian's son-in-law, who was
detained last Thursday, and to the pan-Blue and pan-Green camps'
reactions to these developments. News coverage also focused on the
KMT and DPP primaries for the year-end Taipei and Kaohsiung mayoral
races, the Indonesian earthquake Saturday, and a local train
accident turned murder case. The pro-status quo "China Times"
reported May 28 on the results of its latest poll, which showed that
President Chen's approval rating has dropped to a new low of 21
percent; 65 percent of the public question his moral credibility,
and nearly 60 percent believe Chen does not have the ability to
govern the country.


2. The Chinese-language Taipei dailies all editorialized on Chen's
son-in-law's case and the current predicament facing Chen and the
DPP. The English-language papers, however, commented on the recent
visit by Deputy U.S. Trade Representative Karan Bhatia to Taiwan and
the U.S.-Taiwan trade relationship. An editorial in the
limited-circulation, pro-independence, English-language "Taipei
Times" urged Taiwan to try to sign Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with
allies in Central America, so that Taiwan businesses can make
inroads into these countries and gain free access to the European
and U.S. markets by utilizing their FTA networks. The editorials in
the limited-circulation, conservative, pro-unification,
English-language "China Post" urged Chen to take Bhatia's advice
with regard to cross-Strait trade policy and not to overlook the
U.S. warning. A separate "Taipei Times" editorial commented on the
Pentagon's 2006 report on Chinese military power, saying the report
"does not provide any dramatic new insights, but it does remind the
wavering reader that the Chinese military is more ambitious, more
skilled, better armed, is deadly serious in its intention and is
preparing to strike Taiwan when the time is right." End summary.

A) "Looking Beyond the US for Trade"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation:
30,000] editorialized (5/29):

"Deputy US Trade Representative Karan Bhatia's remarks on Friday
that it was not the right time to initiate free-trade talks between
Washington and Taipei were not unexpected. It's not the first time
the US government has said so. The message from Bhatia also did not
appear to catch the government off guard, because the two
governments have different strategies in terms of their pursuit of
bilateral free-trade agreements (FTAs). ...

"Taiwan, as the US' eight-largest trading partner, ranks higher than
many countries with which the US has concluded such agreements -
such as Chile, Jordan, Morocco and several countries in the Central
America. As such, Taiwan believes it deserves a higher priority for
a trade pact. It appears that President Chen Shui-bian's government
sees a potential Taiwan-US FTA as serving as a model for other
countries to follow suit -helping to prevent China from excluding
Taiwan from regional economic blocs while encouraging Beijing to
engage Taiwan in dialogue on cross-strait trade. The US, on the
other hand, focuses its FTA talks mainly on geopolitical
considerations. ...

"Nevertheless, while the need for bilateral free-trade talks is
increasingly recognized by countries all over the world, Taiwan does
differ from the US not just at the business level but at the
strategic level. The question for Taiwan is whether the government
can outgrow the previous trade policy, which blindly follows the US.
While the need to seek a FTA with the US still exists, the
government should rethink its FTA targets. It should continue to
seek FTAs with allies in Central American and try to overcome the
China factor by pushing forward free-trade consultations with
countries such as Singapore, Chile and Mexico. ... If Taiwan can
conclude agreements with these nations, Taiwanese businesses will be
able to make inroads into these countries and gain free access to
the European and US markets by utilizing their FTA networks."

B) "Chen Neglects U.S. Warnings"

The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post"
[circulation: 30,000] wrote in an editorial (5/30):

"Last week, the U.S. issued two unprecedented blunt warnings against
President Chen Shui-bian and his government, but they were
overshadowed by sensational stories of corruption scandals
surrounding the president's family and his close aides as well as
the mysterious train accident turned murder case. Representatives
of Taiwan's mentor and protector came here to openly voice U.S.
displeasure with the Chen administration's mainland policy, pursuit
of independence and its constitutional reform plan. But not many
people paid attention to them.

"Over the past week, both the print and the electronic media devoted
most of their space and time to the two sensational domestic stories
that the official visit of U.S. Deputy Trade Representative Karan K.
Bhatia was scantily reported. The same was with that of Alan
Romberg, dubbed a 'true voice of Washington's Asia policy circle,'
who was the State Department's deputy spokesman under the Reagan
administration and principal deputy director of Policy Planning
Staff under Clinton. ...

"To challenge the U.S. 'one China' policy is to undermine Taiwan's
close relationship with America. But Chen is too preoccupied with
salvaging his scandal-plagued presidency to heed warnings of
Taiwan's closest ally."

C) "For Once, Let's Take America's Advice"

The conservative, pro-unification, English-language "China Post"
[circulation: 30,000] editorialized (5/28):

"... Ambassador Karan K. Bhatia, Deputy U.S. Trade Representative
responsible for Asia-Pacific affairs, openly called on President
Chen's administration to reverse its policy of discouraging trade
and investment between Taiwan and the mainland. ... While we don't
have any problem with Ambassador Bhatia's message, it was a bit
surprising that he publicly challenged President Chen's policies
during the visit. This was surely a major blow to President Chen's
administration following a series of embarrassing spats with our
most important ally over cross-strait policy. ...

"It seems that despite all of the warnings President Chen has
received on this issue, he remains determined to persuade Washington
to go along with his plans to erect more barriers to cross strait
economic interaction. ... Frankly, it is long overdue for President
Chen to listen to the advice we have received from our American
friends for many years. If we continue ignoring the opinions of our
strongest ally in the world, it is likely that someday soon our
friends in Washington will grow tired of waiting for us to make up
our minds. ..."

D) "US Defense Paper Misses One Target"

The pro-independence, English-language "Taipei Times" [circulation:
30,000] commented in an editorial (5/27):

"One of the more intriguing sections of 'Military Power of the
People's Republic of China 2006,' this year's US Department of
Defense report to Congress, refers to the increasing use by China's
military of ancient warfare and strategic texts such as Sun Zi and
Sun Bin. In particular, the study and implementation of 'strategic
deception' has become entrenched in the Chinese military, the report
says. Then, in the next paragraph, the report expresses concern at
the lack of transparency in Chinese military affairs: 'China takes a
selective approach to transparency restricted to secondary areas of
military activity such as military exchanges, joint exercises, and
confidence-building measures involving visits to previously secret
facilities.' Which is just a polite way of saying that the Chinese
can't be trusted, and that the slogan 'peaceful rise' is little more
than public relations pap. Reinforcing this is the report's
skepticism that China's 'no first use' policy for nuclear weapons
will continue unamended as its nuclear arsenal expands. ...

"The report's discussion of cross-strait tensions offers up the
chestnut that there exists a 'status quo' to be disrupted, even as
it contends that the flowering of missiles along the Chinese coast
constitutes only a threat to and not destroyer of this 'status quo.'
Even at the Pentagon, how remarkable it is that the bar for China
to wound the 'status quo' is set so high - and how low the bar is
set for Taiwanese leaders. The Chinese can walk under it; the
Taiwanese regularly trip over it. ...

Disappointedly, though, the report makes no mention of the Taiwanese
domestic angle in China's 'defense' affairs. Taiwan is presented as
more or less monolithic, united but slothful, 'modest' in its
commitment to defense. There is a certain amount of tiptoeing going
on here, which is not unexpected. ...

"Overall, the 2006 report does not provide any dramatic new
insights, but it does remind the wavering reader that the Chinese
military is more ambitious, more skilled, better armed, is deadly
serious in its intention and is preparing to strike Taiwan when the
time is right."

KEEGAN