Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ADDISABABA714
2006-03-13 07:03:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

ETHIOPIA: MELES WILLING TO RE-LEGALIZE OPPOSITION

Tags:  PGOV PHUM PREL ET 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO6288
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #0714/01 0720703
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 130703Z MAR 06
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 9509
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000714 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: MELES WILLING TO RE-LEGALIZE OPPOSITION
CUD


Classified By: Charge Janet Wilgus for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000714

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/10/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: MELES WILLING TO RE-LEGALIZE OPPOSITION
CUD


Classified By: Charge Janet Wilgus for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: PM Meles says he no longer sees any reason
why the CUD, whose leaders remain in jail, cannot re-register
as a legal party. Party leaders at liberty are trying to
overcome both internal differences and obscure legal
obstacles to reconstitute Ethiopia's largest opposition
political organization. Some of them are simultaneously
struggling to meet legal requirements for taking over the
government of Addis Ababa. The two issues are linked, since
many elected City Council members remain reluctant to govern
unless they can do so as the CUD. The City Council's
organizing committee has so far persuaded 60 council
members-elect to formally register with the National
Electoral Board -- still 9 short of quorum. The committee
claims that members-elect continue to face threats and
intimidation not from the government, but from hard-line
opponents of the GOE, probably with support from the
Diaspora. City Council leaders are seeking a meeting with PM
Meles' to remove legal obstacles to reforming the CUD; donor
country diplomats will try to facilitate a meeting and
solutions. EU Commissioner Louis Michel is in direct contact
with Meles and CUD leaders in and out of jail. While the
Commission has until recently focused almost exclusively on
freeing jailed CUD leaders, pressure from EU member states
and Secretary Rice have reportedly persuaded Michel to
support CUD participation in City Council and other efforts
to strengthen democratic institutions and reduce tensions.
End Summary.

--------------
Meles Gives Ground on Legalizing CUD
--------------

2 (C) In a meeting with Charge Huddleston March 3, Prime
Minister Meles said that he no longer saw any reason why the
National Electoral Board (NEB) could not register the
Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) as a legal political
party. The PM said that he had discussed the matter with
Kemal Bedri, the president of the NEB, who had confirmed this
view. There were two ways in which CUD supporters could
pursue this matter, Meles said: 1) reconstitute the merger of

parties that the NEB had rejected in the fall of 2005; or 2)
registering a new party of the same name "from scratch" based
on the submission of the necessary 1,500 signatures. The PM
remarked that he found the second to be the better option,
since the component parties of the CUD were under criminal
indictment and would likely be convicted and banned by the
courts eventually. He nonetheless maintained that either
option appeared legal for the moment.

-------------- --
Initial Approach on Merger Runs into Roadblocks
-------------- --


3. (C) During the week of March 6, CUD leaders, led by City
Council Organizing Committee chair Ayele Chamiso, submitted a
package documents to the NEB in an effort to register the
merger of the CUDP according to option 1 above. Ayele told a
group of Western ambassadors and Pol/Econ Counselor March 8
that the NEB had promised to reply formally within a few
days, but had informally indicated to the applicants that
there submission lacked official party seals and letterhead.
Ayele reminded diplomats that the whereabouts of party seals
and other official documents were unknown since of security
forces' closure of party offices and seizure of their
contents in the wake of November unrest. When asked about
option two of collecting signatures for a new party
registration, Ayele expressed concerns about losing rights to
the property of component parties when that property is
eventually released by the judicial system. Pol/Econ
Counselor urged the group to remain flexible about how to
register the party and suggested that property issues could
be resolved separately at a later date. In a private
conversation after the meeting, Ayele said he preferred the
option of a fresh registration over a merger, but had not yet
convinced others in his group that this was the way to go.

--------------
City Council to Appeal for Help from Meles
--------------


4. (C) Ayele and the organizing committee asked diplomats for
assistance in removing GOE roadblocks to the CUD's
re-establishment; progress in this area would facilitate
achieving official quorum for taking over Addis Ababa, they
added. Specifically, the group asked that donor governments
(including the USG) seek the PM's agreement to:

ADDIS ABAB 00000714 002 OF 003



-- Reopen CUD and component party offices and return key
documents and seals;
-- Extend the deadline for achieving quorum on City Council
another week beyond March 10;
-- Accept a lower number as quorum, such as 55, rather than
the current 69, since no more than 107 council members elect
were in Ethiopia and at liberty;
-- Release 14 council members-elect who had been arrested
since November but not charged; (Two had recently been
freed.)
-- Meet face to face with the City Council organizing
committee to resolve institutional obstacles to taking power
in Addis.


5. (C) EU Amb. Tim Clarke replied that the group's requests
were more than reasonable. He suggested that Ayele write a
letter to the Prime Minister conveying the requests, to which
diplomats could then offer their support. Ayele agreed to do
so. Others agreed to advocate with Meles.

--------------
Hard-line Pressure Delays City Council Quorum
--------------


6. (C) Ayele told diplomats that his committee had so far
persuaded 60 council members-elect to formally register with
the NEB. Others who had earlier signed a petition agreeing
to take office were holding back. Some had apparently
changed their minds, but new individuals might also come
forward. According to Ayele, petition signatories had
received threatening phone calls and other pressure to
abandon their commitment to take office. Ayele did not say
specifically where the calls came from, but acknowledged that
Diaspora activists and other opposition hard-liners were
probably responsible. Ayele reiterated that regaining access
to CUD offices as well as re-registering the party would be a
huge boost to the effort of his organizing committee.
Pol/Econ Counselor replied that although diplomats were fully
prepared to support his committee's requests to Meles, the
group should not simply wait for more help from the GOE.
Instead, it should continue persuading its own members-elect
to register at the NEB. The group's success in collecting 70
signatures had likely been a key factor in convincing the PM
that there was a critical mass of responsible CUD leaders
with which to work, he added. Ayele and the group agreed to
continue their efforts to achieve quorum while they
simultaneously sought a more conducive environment through
the Prime Minister.

--------------
EU Diplomacy Contentious and Intense
--------------


7. (C) Following the March 8 meeting with City Council
representatives, Austrian Amb. Brigitte Oppinger-Walchsofer
(strictly protect) told Pol/Econ Counselor that EU member
states had struggled with the Commission to redirect the
latter's intense diplomatic efforts on Ethiopia's internal
political crisis. EU Commissioner Louis Michel and local
Amb. Tim Clarke had both been working with imprisoned leader
Berhanu Nega against the initiative to take over the City
Council, she said. After a strong push from local EU heads
of mission as well as a phone call with Secretary Rice,
however, Michel had reluctantly agreed to support the City
Council Organizing Committee's efforts. Michel had been
making phone calls to key CUD leaders in recent days, and had
even talked by phone with Berhanu Nega in prison, as well as
with PM Meles. The EU had released $150 million in frozen
aid to Ethiopia following Meles' agreement to provide access
to the CUD prisoners for Michel in late February,
Oppinger-Walchsofer said, but was still holding over $300
million in coveted assistance for transportation projects.
The Austrian Ambassador was pleased that Michel had appeared
to accept member state views, but remained wary of what
messages the Commission might be sending in private.

-------------- --------------
Comment: Legalization of CUD Would Mark Major Step Forward
-------------- --------------


8. (C) While technical obstacles remain to the
re-establishment of the CUD, Ethiopia's most popular
opposition movement, PM Meles' agreement in principle is a
positive and surprising sea change from his early positions.
A legal CUD would dramatically improve the image of
Ethiopia's democratic institutions in the eyes of the public
and international donors, and would help cool simmering

ADDIS ABAB 00000714 003 OF 003


popular discontent in Addis Ababa. The emergence of
moderate, pragmatic CUD leaders in both Parliament and among
City Council-members elect may well be a factor in Meles'
change of heart, as well as donor pressure and the dearth of
other viable options for running the nation's capital. Post
will work with EU missions and others to facilitate solutions
to remaining legal barriers to re-registration of the CUD
through the Prime Minister, urging him to make good on his
commitment to "go the extra mile" in support of the City
Council organizing committee. At the same time, we will push
the committee itself to show that it has the political will
and capacity to succeed even in the current environment.
Continued Department and USEU efforts to keep EU Commissioner
Michel rowing in the same direction would also be helpful.
HUDDLESTON