SOMALIA: PM MELES REPORTS ETHIOPIAN FORCES HAVE

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003413

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT. FOR AF A/S FRAZER, DAS THOMAS-GREENFIELD, AND AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER
CJTF-HOA FOR POLAD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER MOPS KISL ET SO
SUBJECT: SOMALIA: PM MELES REPORTS ETHIOPIAN FORCES HAVE
NOT ENTERED MOGADISHU

REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 3410 (NOTAL)

B. ADDIS ABABA 3411

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES, A.I. JANET WILGUS. REASONS: 1.4 (A),
(B),AND (D).


1. (S) SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST. Prime Minister Meles
Zenawi informed Charge in the evening of December 28 that
Ethiopian troops had not entered Mogadishu, and that Ethiopia
would wait until the following day to assess circumstances
and decide whether to intervene in Somalia's capital. Meles
said that Mogadishu elders, expressing concern that TFG
troops lacked the discipline and training to restore public
order, had requested that Ethiopia enter Mogadishu, in order
to counter ongoing looting and fighting following the
departure of CIC extremists. Meles said TFG Prime Minister
Ghedi continued consultations with Somali clan elders in
Afgoye, and that a senior Ethiopian delegation would meet TFG
President Abdullahi Yusuf in Baidoa to discuss next steps.
According to Meles, Ethiopia planned to implement a
unilateral ceasefire on December 30, in observance of Eid Al
Adha, but was concerned about interdicting CIC extremists
fleeing from Mogadishu to Kismayo. Meles concluded by
welcoming U.S. assistance in reviewing the situation, and
asking whether a U.S. envoy could come to the region. Post
seeks Department's guidance in responding to PM Meles'
request. END SUMMARY AND ACTION REQUEST.

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SOMALI ELDERS CONCERNED ABOUT MOGADISHU SECURITY
-------------- ---


2. (S) Following a December 28 mid-afternoon press conference
(transcript sent to AF/E and S/ES-O) in which he asserted
that Ethiopian troops (ENDF) were at the outskirts of
Mogadishu but had not yet entered the city, Prime Minister
Meles briefed Charge on recent developments related to the
situation in Somalia. Meles said the GOE was continuing
consultations with the Transitional Federal Government of
Somalia (TFG) and with Somali elders. He explained that a
committee of 15 Somali elders, representing all the clans of
Mogadishu, had requested that the ENDF enter Mogadishu, as
looting and fighting was going out of control. Meles said
the elders, who included Council of Islamic Court (CIC)
moderates with whom Ethiopia had been in contact some months
ago, had expressed concern that the TFG would not be able to
restore order, as TFG troops were neither well-trained or
disciplined. Ethiopia would continue assessing the
circumstances before making any decision to enter Mogadishu:
the GOE was well aware of the problems that entering would
cause, Meles said, but also believed that not entering was a
difficult choice.

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ETHIOPIA PLANS DEC. 30 CEASEFIRE
--------------


3. (S) PM Meles subsequently briefed Charge in the evening of
December 29 that TFG Prime Minister Ghedi was continuing to
meet with Somali clan elders in Afgoye (less than 20km from
Mogadishu),to negotiate a way forward in Mogadishu. Meles
said that the security situation in Mogadishu had not
deteriorated significantly from the looting, fighting, and
warlordism of earlier in the day; on the other hand, it had
not improved either. Ethiopia would wait until the following
day, December 29, to reassess the situation, he said.
Ethiopian troops still planned to implement an unilateral
ceasefire on December 30, in observance of Eid Al Adha, Meles
said.


4. (C) Citing repeated radio broadcasts by the TFG
highlighting the TFG's willingness to politically engage
moderates (ref B),Meles said a senior Ethiopian delegation
would meet TFG President Abdullahi Yusuf in Baidoa on
December 29 to discuss next steps.

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CIC EXTREMISTS FLEEING MOGADISHU
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ADDIS ABAB 00003413 002 OF 002



5. (S) Meles reiterated his concern that extremist elements
of the Council of Islamic Courts (CIC) were fleeing
Mogadishu, and his request for USG assistance to interdict
them (ref A). Meles said that groups of ex-members of the
CIC were fleeing south to Kismayo in a convoy of
approximately 150 vehicles. The CIC convoy included foreign
fighters, some wounded, and presumably some CIC leaders.
Meles asserted that as the CIC did not make a stand in their
Mogadishu stronghold, it was unlikely that they would do so
in Kismayo. Meles postulated that the fleeing CIC members
may seek to leave by sea, or air, or overland to Kenya; or
they may seek to hide among the rugged terrain of Raas
Kaamboni (near the Kenyan border) to reappear in the future.


6. (C) Meles noted that circumstances had changed
significantly over the past week and a half. The question
was how to move forward, he said. Meles concluded by
welcoming U.S. assistance in reviewing the situation, and
asking whether a U.S. envoy could come to the region.


7. (S) COMMENT: PM Meles' assertion that Ethiopian troops
have not entered Mogadishu is consistent with TFG Ambassador
to Ethiopia Abdulkarim Farah's earlier observation (ref B)
that Ethiopian forces have received strict instructions not
to enter any of the 21 cities captured within the last 2-3
days. However, the reported entry of TFG troops into
Mogadishu, within hours of the TFG Ambassador's assertion
that neither TFG troops nor Ethiopian forces had any plans to
enter the capital (ref B),underscore the fluid situation in
Mogadishu. Whether Meles will decide to commit Ethiopian
troops to openly join the fray in Mogadishu, may depend
largely on his perception of how responsive the United States
is to his request for assistance in interdicting extremist
CIC leaders (ref A) and thus neutralizing the primary threat
in Somalia to Ethiopia's national security. END COMMENT.
WILGUS