CORRECTED COPY: SOMALIA: GOE PM MELES SAYS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003410

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR AF A/S FRAZER AND DAS THOMAS-GREENFIELD

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/28/2016
TAGS: MOPS ASEC PREL PGOV SO ET
SUBJECT: CORRECTED COPY: SOMALIA: GOE PM MELES SAYS
JIHADISTS FLEEING MOGADISHU, URGENT CLAN TALKS NEEDED

Classified By: CHARGE JANET WILGUS FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (U) This cable contains an action request. Please see
para 5.


2. (S) SUMMARY: Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles told Charge
that the "Jihadist" leaders of the Council of Islamic Courts
(CIC) had fled Mogadishu as ENDF and TFG forces closed in on
the Somali capital. ACTION REQUEST: Meles asked for USG
assistance in interdicting extremist leaders, some of whom
were escaping in boats from Merka and Kismayo. The CIC as an
entity has disbanded and is no longer providing security on
the streets. Immediate action is needed to establish
security in Mogadishu, he said. Meles indicated that ENDF
and TFG militia had stopped their advance in Afgoye, a town
about 25 km outside the capital, in order to negotiate the
entry into Mogadishu by the TFG. Meles said that the
disbanding of the CIC and the urgency of providing security
in the capital meant immediate talks among Somali clan
leaders and other local stakeholders would take place in
Afgoye, and that internationally-brokered negotiations in
Khartoum were now overtaken by events. The GOE was urging
the TFG to put out public statement indicating that looting a
return to warlordism would not be tolerated, he added. End
Summary.

CIC DISINTEGRATION CREATES IMMEDIATE SECURITY CHALLENGES
-------------- --------------


3. (S) PM Meles called Charge the morning of Dec. 28 to brief
her on the most recent developments in Somalia and seek
assistance. He said that events were proceeding much faster
than the GOE had expected. The "Jihadists" were fleeing
Mogadishu as Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) and
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) militia approached the
capital. The extremist CIC leaders had distributed weapons
and sought to sow chaos as they left the city. The security
situation in Mogadishu was deteriorating, he said, and urgent
measures were needed to prevent a descent into chaos. Meles
said that the ENDF and TFG had halted their advance in the
town of Afgoye, about 25 km outside the capital, in order to
negotiate the peaceful entry of TFG forces into Mogadishu.
Meles said he was urging the TFG to put out a public
statement indicating that looting and a return to the
"warlordism" of the past would not be tolerated.

KHARTOUM PROCESS DEAD; URGENT ALL-SOMALI PROCESS NEEDED
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4. (S) Meles told the Charge that the disbanding of the CIC's
extremist leadership and the urgency of restoring order had
changed the equation for political negotiations. The
internationally-brokered peace process in Khartoum had been
overtaken by events. Meles said that what was needed now was
dialogue among Somalis themselves, represented by
Mogadishu-based clan leaders, which he said would begin Dec.
28 in Afgoye. He said that the Ayr sub-clan of the Hawiye
clan, previously the primary base of support for the CIC, had
already formed a committee of 24 leaders to engage with the
TFG. He said that UN and other international organizations
could most usefully focus on provision of humanitarian
assistance and the creation of a peacekeeping force to
support stabilization. Meles also said that the ENDF would
observe a unilateral cease-fire in observance of the Muslim
holiday of Eid Al Adha on Dec. 30.

ACTION REQUEST: CAPTURE FLEEING EXTREMISTS
--------------


5. (S) According the PM, "Jihadist" elements of the CIC were
fleeing Mogadishu in boats from Merka and Kismayo. Meles
asked whether the USG could assist in interdicting these
individuals. ACTION REQUEST: Post requests Department
guidance on how to respond to the PM's urgent request.

COMMENT: UNEXPECTED SUCCESS LEAVES GOE IN CONTROL
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6. (S) The still rapidly evolving situation in Somalia seems
to be playing out along the lines of Meles' most optimistic
assumptions: that a military blow to the CIC's seeming

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invincibility could end the dominance of Jihadist extremists
and trigger a mass shift of Somali power-brokers toward more
moderate leaders. The GOE's plans to convene an immediate
negotiation between the TFG and clan elders is likely a
genuine effort to ensure security as soon as possible,
particularly given that the GOE will be blamed for failing to
guarantee security now that it is in control. At the same
time, however, such negotiations also offer the GOE the
opportunity to serve as the broker and primary guarantor of a
new political order in Somalia, and to sideline international
actors who support Islamic extremists.
WILGUS