ETHIOPIA: DETAINEES NOW SEEK COMPROMISE WITH PM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 003118

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/27/2016
TAGS: PGOV PHUM ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: DETAINEES NOW SEEK COMPROMISE WITH PM
MELES

Classified By: PAO ANTHONY FISHER FOR REASON: 1.4 (D).


1. (C) Summary: Mission's efforts to broker an agreement
between the GOE and the imprisoned CUD leaders have begun to
show positive results. There appears to be a greater
willingness to compromise on both sides. Meditation efforts
have resulted in the beginning of earnest negotiations
between the jailed CUD leaders and the GOE, aimed at crafting
a political settlement before the end of the trial. End
summary.

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Untying the Gordion Knot of Mistrust.
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2. (C) Mission initiated efforts during the past 11 months
have begun to show concrete signs of progress towards getting
both the GOE and the jailed CUD leaders to arrive at a
compromise, so as to defuse political tensions in Ethiopia.
On November 18, a briefing on the five key demands (below) of
the GOE and the detained, was given by the then Charge
d'Affaires, Ambassador Vicki Huddleston and the PAO, to
mission selected Ethiopian intermediaries (strictly protect),
Professor Efraim Isaac, a confidant of Prime Minister Meles,
and Pastor Daniel Gebreselassie, Head of the NGO, Prison
Fellowship - Justice for All:

-- Each of the parties agree to stop speaking about each
other in less than flattering terms in the government media,
international press and internet web-sites.

-- The law presumes everyone is innocent until proven guilty.
The incarcerated that may be found guilty, and eventually
receive pardon, should promise to refrain from insisting on
their innocence upon their release.

-- Each of the parties recognize that democracy is a process
and that in attempting to construct democracy in Ethiopia, it
is natural that mistakes have been made, however each side
agrees to work towards building a strong and united Ethiopia.

-- The opposition should agree to work within the
constitution to promote peaceful political change and disavow
the resort to civil disobedience such as street actions, to
resolve differences with the majority party.

-- The opposition should express a willingness to help heal
the nation. They should appeal to all Ethiopians to
peacefully reduce political tensions, and counteract the
Jihadist threat to Ethiopia, so as to guarantee the continued
survival of hundreds of years of peaceful co-existence
between Christians and Muslims. The ruling party will give
them time on national media to make their appeal.

Professor Ephraim and Pastor Daniel are respected by the
government and trusted by the detainees. The intermediaries
were charged with telling the CUD leaders that the GOE was
serious about negotiating a pardon with them, and were asked
to assess the leaders' general predisposition to fashion a
compromise.

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A Major Step Forward
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3. (S) On November 23 Ambassador Yamamoto and the PAO met
with both interlocutors to debrief them after they had made
several trips to the CUD leaders in Kaliti prison, to review
tactics and language that could further approximation between
the GOE and the CUD detainees. According to both Prof. Efraim
and Pastor Daniel, Hailu Shawel, Prof. Mesfin Woldemariam,
Bertukan Medeska, Berhanu Nega, and the consistently
moderate, Yacob Hailemariam, approved in principle the five
points previously discussed with the Charge, and all
displayed a marked disposition to compromise with the
government. They subsequently became involved in making
their own proposals to the GOE. In subsequent meetings
between PM Meles and Prof. Efraim at which the latter
reported on the key points of interest expressed in various
meetings with the CUD, the Prime Minister said that he wanted
to meet the CUD halfway, and was drafting four GOE proposals
for them, one of which included the GOE's willingness to
express regret. Expressions of remorse is a key requisite of
both the GOE and the CUD at this point. The CUD imprisoned

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leaders and the GOE are now seriously negotiating an
agreement which could eventually lead to a political
settlement, perhaps prior to the end of the trial.

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Comment
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4. (C) Key preconditions to reconciliation, important to both
the GOE and the imprisoned CUD leaders, are now being
earnestly negotiated by both parties for the first time since
the mission initiated discussions regarding the release of
the detainees. A final agreement, which may still be at
least several weeks in the offing, could include a mix of
reduction in sentences and pardons for the CUD leaders, and
even dropping of charges, for which there is precedent under
Ethiopian law. A political settlement is now seen by both
sides as a necessary preamble to the end of the trial, and is
a welcome advance. The Mission has adopted the tactic of
working with trusted Ethiopian intermediaries, a traditional
mode of dispute resolution, designed to save face on both
sides. Post remains deeply engaged in the process behind the
scenes, to assist with long-term reconciliation prospects as
an 'Ethiopian solution to Ethiopian problems' is crafted.
End comment
YAMAMOTO