ETHIOPIA: ERITREAN ARMORED FORCES INITIATE

S E C R E T ADDIS ABABA 002793

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF FOR DAS YAMAMOTO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2016
TAGS: MOPS PREL PTER ER ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: ERITREAN ARMORED FORCES INITIATE
BATTALION-SIZE MOVEMENT INTO THE UN TEMPORARY SECURITY ZONE

Classified By: CHARGE VICKI HUDDLESTON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (S) SUMMARY. AS OF MID-DAY ON 16 OCTOBER 2006, ERITREAN
ARMORED FORCES HAD INITIATED BATTALION-SIZE MOVEMENT INTO THE
UNITED NATIONS TEMPORARY SECURITY ZONE (TSZ) IN THE VICINITY
OF OM HAJER (BR 468 858); MALUBA (CNA),BARENTU (CS 583 570),
KARAKASH (CS 633 656) AND SHAMBIKO (CS 745 515). NO ERITREAN
FORCES HAD CROSSED THE BORDER INTO ETHIOPIA AS OF
APPROXIMATELY 1400 HOURS LOCAL TIME (1100 HOURS ZULU).
ETHIOPIAN FORCES HAVE BEEN PUT ON ALERT IN REACTION TO THE
MOVEMENT, BUT NO DIRECT ENGAGEMENT HAD OCCURRED AS OF
APPROXIMATELY 1130 HOURS ZULU. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) THIS CABLE HAS BEEN DERIVED FROM AN IIR.

ERITREAN MOVEMENT INTO THE TSZ
--------------


3. (S) AS OF MID-DAY ON 16 OCTOBER 2006, ERITREAN ARMORED
FORCES HAD INITIATED BATTALION-SIZE MOVEMENT INTO THE UNITED
NATIONS TSZ IN THE VICINITY OF OM HAJER (BR 468 858); MALUBA
(CNA),BARENTU (CS 583 570),KARAKASH (CS 633 656) AND
SHAMBIKO (CS 745 515). NO ACTUAL BORDER CROSSING INTO
ETHIOPIA HAD OCCURRED AS OF APPROXIMATELY 1100 HOURS ZULU
TIME (1400 HOURS LOCAL TIME).


4. (S) ERITREAN MOVEMENT INTO THE TSZ INCLUDED 10-20
UNIDENTIFIED TANKS ON HEAVY EQUIPMENT TRANSPORTERS (HET). AT
LEAST FIVE HETS WERE SPOTTED EMPTY IN THE VICINITY OF
KARAKASH, MOVING TOWARDS BARENTU. (COMMENT: SOURCE BELIEVES
THE TANKS WERE DISMOUNTED BETWEEN SHAMBIKO AND KARAKASH.
UNITED NATIONS MISSION TO ETHIOPIA AND ERITREA (UNMEE)
REPORTED TANKS APPROXIMATELY 10 KILOMETERS NORTH OF THE
ETHIOPIAN BORDER. END COMMENT.) OTHER MOVEMENT REPORTS
INCLUDED TROOPS, ROCKET LAUNCHERS, AND OTHER EQUIPMENT.
ERITREAN RADIO TRAFFIC ALSO INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY DURING
THE MORNING OF 16 OCTOBER 2006.

ETHIOPIA, UN ON ALERT
--------------


5. (S) AS OF APPROXIMATELY 1130 ZULU HOURS, ETHIOPIAN FORCES
HAD BEEN PUT ON ALERT IN REACTION TO ERITREAN MOVEMENTS.
HOWEVER, NO/NO OTHER DIRECT REACTIONS HAVE BEEN REPORTED, AND
NO/NO DIRECT ENGAGEMENT HAD OCCURRED. ETHIOPIAN FORCES ARE
NOT/NOT LIKELY TO REACT TO THIS MOVEMENT UNLESS DIRECTLY
ATTACKED.


6. (S) UNMEE HEADQUARTERS HAVE BEEN ALERTED BY UNMEE OUTPOSTS
ON THE BORDER, AND ARE PROTESTING TO THE ERITREAN GOVERNMENT.
ONE UNMEE CIVILIAN VEHICLE WAS STOPPED AND PROHIBITED FROM
MOVING TOWARDS BARENTU, AND JORDANIAN UNMEE FORCES WERE
CONFINED TO THEIR BARRACKS WITH NO VEHICLE MOVEMENT ALLOWED
WITHOUT ERITREAN PERMISSION. (COMMENT: THE FRENCH DEFENSE
ATTACHE, WHO HAS FRENCH UNMEE OFFICERS REPORTING TO HIM ON
THE SITUATION BELIEVES THE ERITREAN TROOP MOVEMENT TO BE
PROVOCATIVE IN NATURE, RATHER THAN A PREAMBLE TO A
SIGNIFICANT ATTACK. END COMMENT.)

COMMENT
--------------


7. (S/NF) DURING THE WEEK OF 07-15 OCTOBER 2006, THE
ETHIOPIAN GOVERNMENT INFORMED POST THAT UNLESS AN
INTERNATIONAL DECISION ON INSERTING UN FORCES INTO SOMALIA
WAS FORTHCOMING IN NOVEMBER, ETHIOPIA WOULD ACT UNILATERALLY
TO ATTACK UIC FORCES IN SOMALIA. DEPENDING ON ERITREAN
ACCESS TO THIS INFORMATION, THE CURRENT TROOP MOVEMENT MAY BE
AN ERITREAN ATTEMPT TO DEFLECT OR DISTRACT ETHIOPIAN
ATTENTION FROM ITS OPERATIONS IN SOMALIA.


8. (S/NF) ETHIOPIAN FORCES ON THE ERITREAN BORDER ARE FULLY
PREPARED TO DEAL WITH ANY SIGNIFICANT THREAT FROM ERITREA.
EIGHT ETHIOPIAN DIVISIONS ARE STILL LOCATED IN THE NORTHERN
SECTOR OF ETHIOPIA. ETHIOPIAN FORCES ARE UNLIKELY TO REACT
PRECIPITOUSLY OR RASHLY TO THE CURRENT ERITREAN MOVEMENTS.
THE ETHIOPIAN MILITARY RECENTLY STATED AT THE HIGHEST LEVEL
THAT THE ETHIOPIANS WERE ABLE TO WARD OFF ANY ERITREAN
ATTACK. THIS STATEMENT WAS MADE IN CONJUNCTION WITH THE
ISSUE OF POTENTIAL ETHIOPIAN MILITARY ACTION IN SOMALIA.
HUDDLESTON