Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ADDISABABA2776
2006-10-14 10:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

PM MELES: ETHIOPIA PREPARING TO GO AGAINST CIC IN

Tags:  MOPS PREL PTER ET 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 002776 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF FOR A/S FRAZER AND DAS YAMAMOTO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016
TAGS: MOPS PREL PTER ET
SUBJECT: PM MELES: ETHIOPIA PREPARING TO GO AGAINST CIC IN
NOVEMBER IF NO APPROVAL OF IGAD BATTALION

REF: ADDIS ABABA 2763

Classified By: CHARGE VICKI HUDDLESTON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 002776

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF FOR A/S FRAZER AND DAS YAMAMOTO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2016
TAGS: MOPS PREL PTER ET
SUBJECT: PM MELES: ETHIOPIA PREPARING TO GO AGAINST CIC IN
NOVEMBER IF NO APPROVAL OF IGAD BATTALION

REF: ADDIS ABABA 2763

Classified By: CHARGE VICKI HUDDLESTON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary. Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi told
Business Executives for National Security (BENS) President
and CEO General Charles Boyd, U.S. Air Force (Ret.),CJTF-HOA
Commander Rear Admiral Richard Hunt, and Charge October 13
that he sees a UN-supported IGAD/Ugandan battalion stationed
in Baidoa and a lifting of the arms embargo to shore up the
TFG as the solution to containing the Union of Islamic Courts
(UIC) and stopping their march to consolidate power
throughout Somalia by defeating the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG),and absorbing via subversion and force of
arms Puntland and Somaliland. Meles said that an IGAD Ugandan
battalion would focus on providing security in Baioda. This
would allow Ethiopia to train TFG troops, thereby reinforcing
the TFG so that the UIC would be forced to hold meaningful
talks with them. Absent of an international solution, Meles
explained that Ethiopia envisions confronting the UIC in a
major battle in order to damage and disgrace them, and
thereby stop their advance and encourage division within the
CIC. Meles indicated, however, that he would prefer an
international solution and therefore will wait for the United
Nation's Security Council to deliberate the lifting of the
arms embargo and the IGAD/Ugandan battalion. If approval is
not forthcoming then Ethiopia will move to contain the UIC
sometime in November. Meles said that he will continue to
work with the United States and United Kingdom and keep the
two countries informed about Ethiopia's intentions. Comment:
Meles hopes that by telling us and the UK of his military
plans, we will move to avert the confrontation by pushing
through a UNSC resolution. According to AU Deputy Mazemhaka,
there is no arms embargo on the TFG and therefore it does not
have to be lifted. However, the AU and indeed the
international community want UN approval for lifting the
embargo and the IGAD battalion. Endorsement of these
concepts via the Somali Contact Group and other international

fora will also be useful. End Summary.


2. (C) The meeting with the Prime Minister was also attended
by MFA Acting Director of Europe and North America Desk Almaz
Amha and the remainder of the BENS delegation, including
Marbill Management General Partner Bill Campbell, Access
Industries Executive Vice President Peter Thoren, Arnold and
Porter Partner Ramon Marks, The White Oak Group Managing
Partner Chris Melton, Wachovia Corporation Senior Executive
Vice President and General Counsel Mark Treanor, Boies and
McInnis Partner Mary Boies, BENS Senior Vice President Eric
Flanning, Associated Press East Africa Bureau Chief Chris
Tomlinson, and Bennett McCutcheon Michele Huges from Joint
Forces Command. The Ambassador's special assistant served as
notetaker. This message was not cleared by General Boyd.

MELES PAINTS A PICTURE
--------------


3. (C) General Boyd asked Meles how the United Nation's
"reluctance to move in an effective way" and the African
Union's "inability to move quickly" to deploy an IGAD force
affected Ethiopia's military strategy vis-a-vis Somalia.
Meles explained that any policy on Somalia has to reflect the
forces involved in the conflict. He boiled the players down
to two sides: the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) and those
who oppose the UIC, indicating that the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG),Puntland, and Somaliland are the primary
forces of opposition. Meles said the TFG's strongest assets
are that its transitional charter has the support of most of
the clans and that it has been recognized internationally by
the United Nations and the African Union. He added that the
TFG suffers, however, from an inability to protect itself and
lack of cohesion amongst government officials. Meles
explained that Puntland has strong ties to the TFG because
the current TFG President established Puntland and that it
opposes the UIC because it's "uncomfortable" with the clans
in Mogadishu. Similarly, Somaliland's support of the TFG
stems from its desire to remain independent. Meles said that
the transitional charter, not necessarily the TFG, is the
future of Somalia.


4. (C) Meles continued by explaining the how the UIC gained
influence and eventually become large and powerful enough to
launch its campaign against the TFG. Meles said that
regional Islamic courts were originally formed to protect
against predatory warlords and gained support of locals by
proving responsive to law and order issues. Islamic courts,

ADDIS ABAB 00002776 002 OF 003


he noted, were not organized as one entity rather individual
units established by different clans/sub-clans. He said the
Islamic courts were initially parochial in nature, not
ideological. The Islamic courts began to change into a more
cohesive and aspiring organization once "global Islamic"
movements linked to Osama bin Laden and other violent sects
were invited to infiltrate its ranks. Meles said that these
global Islamic movements are comprised of two major groups:
the Saudi-influenced Wahabists and Egyptian-influenced Sufis.
Meles said that Islamic courts ceded leadership positions to
members of these Islamic movements because they provided
"enlightened" leaders, experience in establishing networks,
and financial support. Meles noted that Somalia's
characteristic clan and sub-clan structure is still paramount
and its relationship with these external Islamic groups could
be a source of contention within the UIC structure.


5. (C) In addition to support from Islamic groups outside of
Somalia, Meles said that Eritrea continues to align itself
with the UIC. He explained that while Eritrea is not
naturally inclined to side with an Islamic-based movement
like the UIC, it understands that Islamists in Somalia could
serve to destabilize Ethiopia. Meles added that Eritrea
provides military training, equipment and support to the UIC
as well as to dissident groups within Ethiopia, such as AIAI,
Oromo Liberation Front (OLF) and Ogaden National Liberation
Front (ONLF). Eritrea, Meles noted, is allied with Islamist
groups for geo-political reasons rather than ideological.
Meles mentioned that Iran was nominally supporting the UIC
but it's involvement was limited because Iranians are Shia
and Somalis Sunni. Meles said that Libya, too, was likely
supporting the UIC but its involvement was difficult to gage
as it might be attempting to undermind the Wahabis.


6. (C) Given the loose and various entities comprised to
makeup the UIC, Meles asked what was keeping the alliance
together. He said the primary reason is the UIC is seen as
successful and this has created momentum that must be broken.
Given the two different groups that make up the UIC there
could be a break - if the UIC suffered a defeat - between the
clan based courts and the ideologues like Aweys who control
the leadership because they control the resources from
abroad. The UIC's success also is a result of the TFG's
organizational weakness and "feeble" military. Additionally,
although Somaliland has a common interest in fighting radical
Islamists, the TFG's unwillingness to recognize its
independence limits Somaliland's commitment. Puntland the
home of President Yussef is Yussef's refuge should the TFG
fall so it will not initiate but defend itself. Meles argued
that the international community must assist in reinforcing
the TFG both by building leadership and military capacity as
it was created by the region and the international community.
By shoring up the TFG it can serve as the vehicle for the
formation of a more representative government. But this can
not happen unless the TFG is seen as a serious entity by the
UIC as it will not seriously negotiate with a weak TFG.
Ethiopia also encourages greater support and commitment from
Puntland, Somaliland, the African Union and the international
community to the TFG. The UIC may ride its momentum to
complete a country-wide victory if "someone from the outside"
does not intervene.

MELES WILL WAIT FOR UN ACTION
--------------


7. (C) Meles told the group that he sees a UN-supported
IGAD/Ugandan force and a lifting of the arms embargo to shore
up the TFG as the best solution. Meles said that an IGAD
force could focus on training the TFG military, halt the
spread of the UIC and open meaningful dialogue between the
two parties. Absent of an international solution, Meles
explained that Ethiopia is prepared to do battle with the UIC
in Somalia. Meles indicated that before making a final
decision he will wait for the November United Nation's
Security Council meeting where he hopes a favorable will be
made to lift the arms embargo and deploy the IGAD/Ugandan
battalion. Meles said that he will continue to work with the
United States and United Kingdom and keep the two countries
informed about Ethiopia's intentions.


8. (C) CJTF-HOA Admiral Hunt asked if the Prime Minister was
certain that Ethiopia would win in a confrontation with the
UIC. Meles said that while the UIC army may have had its way
with disorganized warlords, it is no match for the skilled
and professionalized Ethiopian military. Meles explained
that the ENDF (Ethiopian National Defense Forces) would move

ADDIS ABAB 00002776 003 OF 003


quickly to "break the back" of the UIC. Meles envisioned
that his army would not take Mogadishu, rather it would
confront the UIC close to the border, allowing the Somalis
themselves to confront or break away from the UIC. He said
that the operation would likely consist of infantry and
mechanized forces rather than air assets. Meles noted that
the UIC is likely armed with hand-held surface to air
missiles, RPGs and low quality Russian anti-tank missiles
provided by Eritrea, but not with advanced anti-armor
capability as Eritrea did not share this technology. Meles
said that the ENDF could chose a large battle so that the UIC
would be sufficiently wounded and this would then result in
their retreat to Mogadishu. Meles said, TFG force would
fight on the front lines and Ethiopian troops were serve
merely as a "stiffening backbone." Meles added that the
operation would not require a redeployment or movement of
troops away from the Eritrean border. Given Ethiopia's
previous military operations in Somalia in 1996 and 1999,
Meles emphasized his Government has long prepared for "one
and half wars" and is ready and capable of handling conflicts
on two fronts.


9. (C) Meles acknowledged that there will be consequences to
any Ethiopian military operation in Somalia. In addition to
"disquiet" from the international community, Meles said that
Ethiopia would likely move up on the priority list of the
enemies of Islam, thereby becoming more of a target for
Islamic terrorist activities. Meles argued that "hard-core
Islamists" have always thought of Ethiopia as being in the
"Crusader" camp, so drawing the ire of Islamists will be
nothing new. But, the conflict could devolve into a
Christianity versus Islam scenario, warned Meles. For this
reason, Meles reiterated that his preference was for an
international solution to the situation.

MELES ON INSURGENCIES AND DEMOCRATIZATION
--------------


10. (C) In response to a question about Somalia's impact on
Ethiopia's internal situation, Meles said Eritrea is
promoting insurgencies within the country, but Ethiopians are
not ready to pickup arms. Meles acknowledged that his
government has problems with people in the urban areas of
Ethiopia, but points to his party's support in rural areas as
the real base of support. Though, Meles noted, pastoralist
areas in the Somali region have been problematic for the
government as development programs have not moved at a fast
enough pace. Meles indicated that his approach to working in
the Somali region have changed. According the Meles, the
government had previously tried to work solely with "modern"
leaders while ignoring more "traditional" leaders, like clan
elders. Meles said that the government is trying to correct
this mistake and work with both groups.


11. (C) When pushed by the BENS delegation to defend
Ethiopia's commitment to democracy and rule of law, Meles
said that democratization and rule of law are critical to the
continued stability of the country. He added that adequate
opportunity for peaceful dissent was a top priority. He
argued that progress on both democratization and rule of law
was a "matter of survival" and the "only option" for
Ethiopia.
HUDDLESTON