Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ADDISABABA2609
2006-09-25 14:12:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

ETHIOPIA: SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF LTG R.

Tags:  PREL PGOV PTER KPKO PHUM AU ET ER SO 
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TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 2614
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
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RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ADDIS ABABA 002609 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF FOR DAS YAMAMOTO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KPKO PHUM AU ET ER SO
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF LTG R.
STEVEN WHITCOMB

Classified By: AMBASSADOR VICKI HUDDLESTON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ADDIS ABABA 002609

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF FOR DAS YAMAMOTO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/21/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KPKO PHUM AU ET ER SO
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: SCENESETTER FOR THE VISIT OF LTG R.
STEVEN WHITCOMB

Classified By: AMBASSADOR VICKI HUDDLESTON FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: 1. (C) Welcome to Addis Ababa! Your visit
comes as the country works to rebuild public confidence in
democratic institutions and cope with potential threats on
its borders with Eritrea and now Somalia. Ethiopia remains a
strong U.S. partner in the global war on terrorism. The
democratic process is moving forward with dialogue between
the ruling EPRDF and all opposition parties on a package of
political reforms. Economic reforms are also progressing,
with an growing diversification of exports and substantial
progress on education and health care. The ONLF insurgency
in the Ogaden region and OLF activities in Oromiya, both
backed by Eritrea, pose a growing threat to the government.
According to a recent UN report on Somalia, ONLF and OLF
fighters are allied with the Islamic Courts. Embassy Addis
is working with the African Union on implementing USG support
to peace efforts in Darfur. Your visit is an opportunity to
engage with senior Ethiopian and African Union officials, as
well as other leaders, concerning the situation in Somalia,
Darfur, the Ethio-Eritrean border issue and Ethiopia's
attempts to improve internal governance.

DEMOCRACY AND HUMAN RIGHTS
--------------


2. (SBU) Charge Huddleston and European ambassadors continue
to facilitate an ongoing political dialogue between the
ruling party and leaders of the Coalition for Unity and
Democracy (CUDP),United Ethiopian Democratic Forces (UEDF)
and Oromo Federal Democratic Movement (OFDM). Party
representatives, supported by comparative studies funded by
the U.S. and other donors, will soon begin discussions on
reforms to strengthen the Parliament. They are scheduled to
take up similar reforms of the National Electoral Board as
well as the legal framework for the media in the coming

weeks. These talks appear to be making progress. The U.S.
strategy since last year has been to press the opposition and
government alike to strengthen the democratic process. Apart
from nurturing talks on institutional reform, another
challenge is convincing the EPRDF to further reduce
harassment of opposition party activists in rural areas.


3. (C) The GOE's handling of the ongoing CUD trial, which is
being followed closely by both the Ethiopian public and the
international community, remains another key variable in
Ethiopia's fragile democratization process. Access to the
trial for international observers and treatment of prisoners
have been adequate. The USG will fund an expert trial
observer from Lawyers Without Borders. Evidence presented by
prosecutors over the last four months, however, has so far
failed to convince international observers that CUD leaders
conspired to overthrow the government by violent means.
Videos shown in court have depicted a CUD leadership
determined to press for immediate progress on institutional
reform, but committed to peaceful methods. We have discussed
the weakness of the evidence with GOE leaders and have
suggested reducing or dropping some of the charges on at
least some of the defendants, allowing bail or humanitarian
parole. Prime Minister Meles is adamantly opposed. The best
we can hope for is a pardon after the verdict.
Reconciliation could occur if detained CUD leaders would
commit to be part of the democratic process. This has not
happened yet. Meanwhile, several detainees have been
receiving medical treatment while in custody. The trial is
likely to continue for several more months, after the courts
reconvene in October.

BORDER DISPUTE
--------------


4. (C) The U.S. continues to work closely with the parties to
resume demarcation of the border and promote an eventual
normalization of relations. Though dialogue seems to have
stalled after both sides chose not to send representatives to
the August 24 EEBC meeting in London, Secretary Rice is
asking both partners to restart talks on demarcation and open
separate discussions on related issues. For now, however,
the GOE remains deeply skeptical that Isaias wants peace or
normalization. In fact, the Eritrean government is providing
money, weapons, and other support to a number of the GOE's
internal and external enemies. Meles, for his part, appears

ADDIS ABAB 00002609 002 OF 004


sincere in his desire to end the Cold War with Eritrea,
though he is unwilling to agree to demarcation without
discussions on the border. The PM says he is not concerned
about further down-sizing or even the disappearance of UNMEE.
He claims that neither UNMEE nor the EEBC is ultimately
necessary or important in bringing peace; what matters is
continuing USG engagement, albeit with less intensity, in
order to provide Isaias with "a ladder to climb down" when he
is ready.

COUNTERTERRORISM/CJTF-HOA
--------------

5.(C) Ethiopia is committed to the war on terrorism and is
cognizant of its strategic role in the Horn of Africa. The
Ethiopian National Defense Forces (ENDF) has been a solid
partner with the U.S. in the war on terrorism. However,
relations between the ENDF and CJTF-HOA have been complicated
beginning in May by the ENDF offensive to eliminate the
insurgent group Ogaden National Liberation Front (ONLF) in
Ethiopia's Somali region. These operations have prompted the
ENDF to request a temporary curtailment of CJTF-HOA civil
affairs activities in the Ogaden. ENDF Chief of General
Staff Lt. General Samora Yonus suggested that HOA civil
affairs activities are inadvertently "helping" the ONLF.
Somora requested that CJTF-HOA temporarily leave the Ogaden
region while the ENDF continues its counter-offensive.
CJTF-HOA's work in response to the recent humanitarian
disaster in Dire Dawa, however, serves as an excellent
example of how it can work in concert with the ENDF to
achieve mutual goals. The Prime Minister has told the Charge
and RADM Hunt that he continues to value the work of CJTF-HOA
and wants to expand it when current military operations in
the Somali region are curtailed.

SOMALIA
--------------


6. (C) PM Meles has conveyed to the Charge his concerns over
the recent victories of the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) in
Somalia. Meles views the ICU as extremist and a significant
threat to Ethiopia; most informed observers in Addis agree
with this assessment. Meles believes that if the ICU cannot
continue to expand its control in Somalia, internal divisions
will split and eventually weaken it. If the ICU attacks
Baidoa, Ethiopia will respond militarily and attempt to keep
the ICU bottled up in Mogadishu. There are widespread
reports that the ENDF has already placed several hundred
troops into Somalia to support the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) in Baidoa. The PM believes that an IGAD
peace support mission with proposed contingents from Uganda
could shore up the fragile TFG. The PM and other EPRDF
officials will be eager to discuss U.S. policy on Somalia;
they, like their regional partners, want the arms embargo
lifted so the TFG can defend itself. Ethiopia has a strong
desire to cooperate with the international community to stop
the expansion of the ICU.

AFRICAN UNION: PUSHING FOR UN PKO IN DARFUR
--------------


7. (U) Heads of state representing the 15-member African
Union Peace and Security Council (PSC) met September 20 on
the margins of the UN General Assembly in New York, and
agreed to extend the current mandate of the AU Mission in
Sudan (AMIS) to the end of December 2006. The AU had
previously threatened to withdraw AMIS upon the expiration of
its mandate on September 30. The PSC also adopted a new AMIS
concept of operations (CONOPS),which calls for strengthening
AMIS through the addition of two battalions from Nigeria and
Rwanda.


8. (SBU) On September 19, the White House announced the
appointment of former USAID Administrator Andrew Natsios as
the President's Special Envoy for Sudan, covering both Darfur
and the North-South conflict. Continued engagement with the
GOS, by senior AU officials and others, will be necessary to
effect transition from an AU-led to a UN peacekeeping
operation in Darfur, in accordance with UN Security Council
Resolution 1706.


9. (C) AU officials report deteriorating security in Darfur,

ADDIS ABAB 00002609 003 OF 004


as the GOS continues aerial attacks on areas controlled by
non-signatories to the Darfur Peace Agreement, in an ongoing
offensive involving the deployment of an estimated
6,000-10,000 additional GOS troops in Darfur. AMIS continues
to be plagued by logistical and security challenges: e.g.,
AMIS aerial operations were recently grounded due to the AU's
inability to pay its sole aviation fuel contractor, who also
provides fuel to the GOS. The recent appointment of MG Luke
Aprezi, former Chief of Operations of the Nigerian Armed
Forces, to replace MG Cru Ihekire as AMIS Force Commander,
should help address serious command and control issues
hampering AMIS.


10. (SBU) The USG is currently contributing 8 military
observers to AMIS, out of an authorized U.S. total of 32.
Two USG advisor/experts (J-2 and J-9) seconded to the AMIS
Forward Joint Mission Headquarters (FJMHQ) have completed
their rotation and are due to be replaced; a third U.S.
military officer serves as the USG representative to the
Ceasefire Commission. In addition, two US billets at the
AMIS Joint Logistics Operations Center (JLOC) remain
unfilled. Outstanding AU requests for partner experts to
conduct "lessons learned" analysis and to provide training on
disarmament, demobilization, reintegration and rehabilitation
(DDRR) will likely be addressed by NATO and the UK
respectively.


11. (SBU) In addition to supporting AMIS, the USG is
providing a contract logistics advisor to AU Commission
headquarters, participating in ongoing harmonization efforts
for the African Standby Force, and will provide
communications upgrades (e.g., EUCOM Coalition Chat Line) to
the AU's Situation Room.


12. (SBU) USG engagement with the African Union will likely
increase with the September 21 confirmation of Dr. Cindy
Courville as U.S. PermRep to the African Union, to lead a
separate U.S. Mission to the African Union (USAU),in Addis
Ababa. Current USAU staffing does not include any military
liaison officer to the AU. The National Defense University's
African Center for Strategic Studies (ACSS) is expected to
establish a two-person office in Addis Ababa in October.

ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
--------------


13. (U) Ethiopia remains one of the poorest countries in the
world. Ethiopia's GDP for 2005 is estimated at USD 8.5
billion, with an annual per capita GDP of USD 100. Since the
early 1990's, Ethiopia has pursued a development strategy
based on a mixed economy of both state and private
enterprises. While the private sector role is expanding, the
state remains heavily involved in most economic sectors, and
parastatal and party affiliated companies continue to
dominate trade and industry, hampering full and free
competition. In addition, increasingly frequent cycles of
drought, high population growth, and inefficient agricultural
markets all act as a drag on Ethiopia's economic development.
Agriculture contributes 42 percent to the GDP and employs 80
percent of Ethiopia's 74 million people. Nearly all
agricultural production is rain-fed and small-scale, and thus
vulnerable to drought. Though GOE economic policies have
been improving gradually, greater economic liberalization and
reduction of population growth are critical to reducing
poverty and increasing food security.


14. (SBU) The economy grew by 7.3 percent in 2005, and the
inflation rate was 6.8 percent. In 2005, Ethiopia's exports
grew by over 30 percent, in part due to higher world coffee
prices. Major exports include coffee, oil seeds and pulses,
and hides and skins, though non-traditional exports such as
flowers have increased significantly over the past few years.
Imports increased even faster than exports however,
resulting in a growing trade deficit and increased risk of a
balance of payments crisis. The private sector has
experienced some difficulty in securing hard currency for
imports in recent months. Ethiopia currently has no IMF
program, but the USG has urged that it establish one.
Ethiopia formally applied for WTO membership in January of
2003, but has since moved slowly on the accession process.
The USG, through USAID, is providing technical assistance on
WTO accession and strongly supports the process as a tool to

ADDIS ABAB 00002609 004 OF 004


promote reforms and enhance food security. Ethiopia
participated in the enhanced Highly Indebted Poor Countries
(HIPC) initiative and G8 Multilateral Debt Relief Initiative.
The U.S. and Ethiopia signed a bilateral debt agreement in
2004 that provided 100 percent cancellation of Ethiopia's
debt to the United States.

DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE
--------------


15. (U) In coordination with donors, the GOE is finalizing
its 2006-2010 Plan for Accelerated and Sustainable
Development to End Poverty in Ethiopia (PASDEP). In addition
to continuing poverty reduction strategies in areas such as
human development, rural development, capacity building, and
food security, the new development plan will increase
commercialized agriculture, promote greater private sector
participation in the economy, and scale-up efforts to achieve
the Millennium Development Goals. Ethiopia has increased
primary education to over 70 percent coverage over the last
decade and has also adopted more effective policies to
promote family planning and combat HIV/AIDS.


16. (SBU) The United States provides both developmental and
humanitarian assistance to Ethiopia, though we do not provide
direct budget support (DBS). In 2005, we provided USD 465
million in food aid, roughly 200 million for health,
education and governance projects, as well as 75 million
through the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief
(PEPFAR). Our objective is to help the Ethiopian government
and people construct safety nets so that they will be less
vulnerable to drought, disease and famine. In 2006 USAID
developed a new initiative meant to protect the livelihoods
of pastoralists in the Somali region. As a result of
post-election events in Ethiopia, donors providing direct
budget support, including, among others, the World Bank,
European Commission, the UK, and Canada, agreed to suspend
DBS. These funds have been reprogrammed through a new
program, the Protection of Basic Services Grant, which
includes more targeted, tightly monitored aid at the regional
and district level. The re-initiation of donor support,
including a 600 million dollar World Bank program, has been a
tremendous relief to the GOE and has eased some of the
financial crunch it was facing.


17. (U) The USG is cooperating closely with other donors to
strengthen democratic institutions such as Parliament, the
National Electoral Board, the media and civil society.
Current USG resources for this purpose total approximately
USD 4 million. Restoring public confidence in these
institutions will be essential to deepening democracy and
maintaining peace and stability at the heart of the Horn of
Africa.
HUDDLESTON