ETHIOPIA: DEPUTY MINISTER TEKEDA TALKS SOMALIA,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 002526

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

AF FOR A/S FRAZER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/16/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER ASEC MOPS AU ET ER SO
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: DEPUTY MINISTER TEKEDA TALKS SOMALIA,
REGIONAL ISSUES WITH DAS YAMAMOTO

Classified By: Charge Janet Wilgus for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Deputy Foreign Minister Tekeda Alemu told AF
DAS Yamamoto Sept. 16 that although the GOE does not see
increased risk of conflict with Eritrea, it nevertheless
would prefer a six-month extension of UNMEE. In Somalia, the
GOE now hopes only to contain the Council of Islamic Courts
(CIC) in Southern Somalia through an alliance with Somaliland
and Puntland, bolstered by the deployment of Ugandan forces
in IGASOM. Tekeda said that the GOE's major concern was that
tensions between Somaliland and Puntland could weaken the
alliance. The Deputy Minister remarked that the Puntland
government was strong because of its firm base of clan
loyalty. The Somali TFG, while more representative of
Somalia as a whole, was weakened precisely by its multi-clan
formula. Nonetheless, the GOE still regarded the Somalia's
transitional federal institutions and charter as the only
basis from which the international community could work. PM
Meles has provided assurances to Ugandan President Museveni
that Ethiopian troops would provide support to Uganda IGASOM
troops in case of emergency. Tekeda expressed concern about
increasing Eritrean influence over Djibouti as well as CIC
contacts with President Guelleh. He encouraged the USG to
speak frankly with Djibouti about the risks of its behavior,
and thanked Yamamoto for the USG's assistance in bolstering
Kenyan resolve in dealing with Somalia. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) AF DAS Don Yamamoto met with Deputy Foreign Minister
Tekeda Alemu Sept. 16. Charge Wilgus and Pol/Econ Counselor
joined Yamamoto, while Tekeda was accompanied by Director
General for Europe and the Americas Almaz Amaha and Deputy
Alayew Mamo.

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UNMEE RENEWAL: GOE PREFERS SIX-MONTH ROLLOVER
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3. (C) DAS Yamamoto asked what the GOE hoped to see happen to
the mandate of the UN Mission in Ethiopia and Eritrea (UNMEE)
at the late September UN Security Council meeting on this
subject. Tekeda replied that although "it doesn't matter
much," the GOE would prefer to see a six-month rollover of
the mission in its current form. He denied that possible
armed conflict with the Council of Islamic Courts in Somalia
heightened the risk of an outbreak of hostilities with
Eritrea, arguing that the current balance of forces along the
Ethio-Eritrean border would continue to deter any attack by
Asmara.


4. (C) Tekeda also confirmed that the GOE would be
represented at the Sept. 18 UNSC session on Darfur by MFA
Director for African Affairs Amb. Sahliework. He noted that
he, PM Meles and Foreign Minister Seyoum would all be tied up
in annual party meetings during that period. Tekeda, who is
not officially a member of the ruling party, noted that he
had been invited for the first time to the Amhara National
Democratic Movement (ANDM) meeting. (NOTE: Meles and Seyoum
will be attending the Tigrayan People's Liberation Front
(TPFL) meeting at the same time. END NOTE.) The Deputy
Minister added that if Minister Seyoum travels to the UNGA at
all this year, it will be in late September.

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GOE SEEKING TO CONTAIN CIC
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5. (C) Tekeda implied that thanks to U.S. support for the
warlord alliance against terrorism in Mogadishu, the CIC was
ensconced as "part of the landscape" in Somalia. The most
the GOE could now hope for, he said, was to contain the CIC,
taking advantage of the CIC's narrow base in the Hawiye clan.
He claimed that most ordinary Somalis had evolved in their
attitudes and no longer felt enmity towards Ethiopia. He
pointed to relatively low turnout at CIC-organized rallies
against Ethiopian intervention in Somalia, as well as the
lack of problems encountered by Ethiopian troops who were now
conducting training of TFG and Puntland militia. Tekeda said
that the GOE could live with an "Islamic Republic of Somalia"
so long as it did not have broader regional ambitions. The
GOE's main objective was to sideline extremists in the CIC
like Sheik Hassan Dahir Aweys.

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REGIONAL DYNAMICS ON IGASOM

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6. (C) The Deputy Foreign Minister argued that deployment of
IGASOM in Somalia would show moderate forces within the CIC
that there was "another show in town" apart from extremists.
He claimed that Kenyan Foreign Minister Tuju had told the GOE
in Nairobi that during Tuju's separate meeting with Sheik
Sharif Ahmed, the latter eventually admitted that IGASOM
deployment would be valuable, but had no mandate to agree
with Kenya on this issue. Tekeda urged that the USG hold his
information extremely closely. Tekeda said the GOE
understood that there was no purely military solution to
Somalia, but argued that it was necessary to display strength
and credibility to bolster the position of moderates and
counter the intimidation of extremist elements.


7. (C) Tekeda maintained that Ugandan troops operating under
an IGASOM mandate would be able to manage the difficult
situation in Somalia -- with strong backing from Ethiopia.
Tekeda revealed that both he and PM Meles had provided
assurances to the Ugandan government during separate trips to
Kampala that Ethiopian troops would provide any support
necessary to Ugandan troops under pressure from CIC forces.
Ethiopian troops would be at the ready on the Ethiopian side
of the border to respond to any emergency. The recent
flare-up in tensions between Somaliland and Puntland
constituted the "weakest flank" of the alliance that the GOE
was constructing to counter the CIC, Tekeda said.


8. (C) Tekeda thanked DAS Yamamoto for the USG's role in
firming up Kenya's resolve to counter the CIC threat in
Somalia. Kenya, Uganda and Ethiopia were now unified in
their commitment to support the TFG, he said. He indicated
that the government of Sudan probably did not truly support
IGASOM deployment, but did not dare go against the common
position of IGAD, which also had support from the
international community. DAS Yamamoto suggested to Tekeda
that Arab League support for the deployment would be very
helpful. Tekeda replied that Foreign Minister Seyoum could
use his good relationship with Egypt to push for at least
Egyptian acquiescence, if not outright support, for IGASOM.


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DJIBOUTI: INTIMIDATED BY ISAIAS, COURTED BY COURTS
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9. (C) The Government of Djibouti's opposition to IGAD
actions in Somalia are the result of its fear of Eritrean
President Isaias, Tekeda said, as well as President Guelleh's
personal business interests with Eritrea. The Deputy Foreign
Minister speculated that the Djiboutian leadership was
worried that Eritrea would support Afari separatist
movements, as Isaias had done successfully in Sudan, if
Djibouti did not follow Eritrea's lead in Somalia. Tekeda
also told Yamamoto that Aweys and other CIC leaders had
stopped in Djibouti to meet with President Guelleh on their
way back from Libya the week before. Tekeda maintained that
the GOD was "on the wrong path," and added that Djibouti was
not strong enough to take Ethiopia's continued friendship and
forbearance for granted. He criticized President Guelleh's
recent visit to Tehran as well as his comments on a recent
BBC Somali Service broadcast, in which he had called on
Somalis to be vigilant in defense of their homeland against
the Ethiopian threat.

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TEKEDA: MORE USG ENGAGEMENT NEEDED
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10. (C) Tekeda urged that the USG speak frankly with Djibouti
about its role in the region. He said that President Guelleh
would pay attention to U.S. concerns given the importance to
him of the U.S. military base in Djibouti. "He must be told
to choose" whose side he wanted to take. Tekeda also
encouraged DAS Yamamoto to increase engagement with
Somaliland leaders. He suggested that the GOE, USG and UK
consult on how to reduce tensions and increase cooperation
among the governments of Somaliland, Puntland and the TFG.


11. (C) Speaking broadly, Tekeda told Yamamoto that due to
developments in Iraq, Afghanistan and elsewhere, "there is a
perception (in the region) that the extremists are winning,
and that the Western World is facing a setback. This

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perception is emboldening extremists everywhere, including
President Isaias and the CIC." Tekeda argued that strong
action was need to brake this momentum and convince moderate
forces that they will receive international support against
extremists.
WILGUS