Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ADDISABABA2114
2006-08-01 14:03:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

MELES ON SOMALIA: NEED UNSC ENDORSEMENT OF IGAD

Tags:  KPKO PREL MOPS SO ET 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO7102
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #2114/01 2131403
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 011403Z AUG 06
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1878
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHINGTON DC
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002114 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E - A/S FRAZER AND AMB. YAMAMOTO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2016
TAGS: KPKO PREL MOPS SO ET
SUBJECT: MELES ON SOMALIA: NEED UNSC ENDORSEMENT OF IGAD
PEACE SUPPORT SOON

REF: ADDIS ABABA 2041

Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reasons 1.4 B and D.

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 002114

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF AND AF/E - A/S FRAZER AND AMB. YAMAMOTO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2016
TAGS: KPKO PREL MOPS SO ET
SUBJECT: MELES ON SOMALIA: NEED UNSC ENDORSEMENT OF IGAD
PEACE SUPPORT SOON

REF: ADDIS ABABA 2041

Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reasons 1.4 B and D.


1. (C) Summary and Action Report. Prime Minister Meles told
Charge Huddleston that the Transitional Federal Government
(TFG) in Somalia is unlikely to collapse under pressure from
the Islamic Courts Union (ICU) if the UNSC welcomes a Ugandan
battalion that would stabilize Baidoa. President Museveni
wants the UN blessing and needs transportation for the
deployment. Ethiopia plans to train TFG troops in small
groups but would prefer to train the TFG in Ethiopia once
IGAD deploys to Baidoa. ACTION REQUEST: Post urges action on
a partial lifting of the arms embargo to preclude a possible
collapse of the TFG or a military confrontation between the
Islamic Courts and Ethiopians. USG and international
condemnation of the arms build-up of the Islamic Courts would
slow down the Islamic Courts ability to expand further south
and north. Ethiopian troops are no longer in Somalia. End
summary.


2. (C) During a call on Prime Minister Meles to introduce
the new USAID Ethiopia Director, and accompanied by CJTF-HOA
Commander Rear Admiral Hunt and DCM, Charge Huddleston
commended the PM on Ethiopian restraint in implementing the
strategy to contain the ICU and build up the TFG. However,
the situation remains critical, she said, and there is need
to move forward quickly in assisting the TFG.


3. (C) PM Meles stated that although TFG was weakened by
recent in-fighting over the Prime Minister due to its clan
structure, it is not about to collapse. Nevertheless, he
said, Baidoa has been infiltrated by islamist extremists,
including foreign jihadists, although some of these have now
been apprehended. Foreign intervention in Somalia is
worrying, Meles said, which includes support for the ICU from
the Sudanese, Djiboutians, Eritreans, Libyans, Egyptians.
There are unconfirmed reports of old U.S. equipment arriving
in Somalia, transported by Eritrea, possibly, Meles
speculated, coming from Egypt. The ICU will continue to try

extend its influence, particularly in the south, Meles said.
It is doing a particularly good job of publicity and is
trying to turn the current conflict into a proxy
Eritrean-Ethiopian war, a dangerous prospect for Ethiopia.
While there are limits on what Eritrea can do, even with
strong foreign backing, the more serious impact is
psychological and resonates throughout the region.


4. (C) There are weaknesses within both the TFG and the ICU,
Meles said, and it is important to keep the ICU from gaining
momentum, as internal divisions will soon appear. The
question, he said, is, which group will crack internally
first. RADM Hunt stated that according to reports he has
received, the ICU has more intellectual and leadership weight
than the TFG. Meles responded that Ethiopia is putting three
teams of trainers in Somalia, one in Puntland and two in the
Baidoa region, in order to assist the TFG. Uganda under IGAD
should provide the support to the TFG in Baidoa. President
Museveni, however wants a UN blessing. Perhaps, Meles
speculated, this blessing could be in the form of a UNSC
statement welcoming the Uganda-IGAD assistance, in order to
avoid the UN bureaucracy. This is needed within weeks, Meles
stressed. Some help with lift of the batallion would also be
needed, but in priciple President Museveni is prepared to
send troops.


5. (C) Meles also raised the problem of arms shipments into
Somalia. In addition to the two airplanes that landed in
Mogadishu (widely reported in the press),there are three
ships that departed Eritrea and have or will land along the
coast north and south of Mogadishu. Meles asked for CJTF-HOA
assistance to interdict such traffic. RADM Hunt responded
that currently his assets are redeployed to the Middle East
but that future patrols off the coast of Somalia and further
south are planned. Meles asked if the US could put more
pressure on those that openly supply arms to the ICU. Public
condemnation of the illegal arms flows would at least slow
the arms build up, Meles said.


6. (C) Ambassador Huddleston said that it would be necessary
to get IGAD, which is meeting in Nairobi August 1, to move
quickly and get UNSC approval for a peace support contingent.

ADDIS ABAB 00002114 002 OF 002


Meles stated that Uganda is ready to help; that he had
spoken with President Museveni, but that a UN decision is
needed quickly for a limited mandate to provide a secure
environment. Assistance would be needed from international
partners as well, such as lift for IGASOM.


7. (C) Comment. It is critical to reinforce the governance
capacity of the TFG as well as its ability to protect itself.
The UNSC welcoming Uganda and lifting the arms embargo for
IGASOM could stop the trend toward creation of an Ismalic
State in southern Somalia. In addition, lifting the arms
embargo will stop the false justification of those who claim
that arming the Islamic Courts is on par with defending the
legitimate government. End comment.


HUDDLESTON