SOMALI TFG SURVIVES ASSASSINATION, DEFECTIONS, AND

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 002093

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/31/2016
TAGS: PREL PINS PINR KPKO AU SO ER ET
SUBJECT: SOMALI TFG SURVIVES ASSASSINATION, DEFECTIONS, AND
ATTEMPTED NO-CONFIDENCE VOTE

REF: A. ADDIS ABABA 2042

B. ADDIS ABABA 2041

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES VICKI HUDDLESTON. REASON: 1.4 (B),(D)
.


1. (C) SUMMARY. Over the last three days, Somalia's
Transitional Federal Government (TFG) has weathered the
assassination of one government minister, the resignation of
nearly 20 others, and a no-confidence vote by 49 per cent of
its parliamentarians. According to Somalia's PermRep to the
African Union, Eritrea (with Libyan funding) continues to
provide weapons and supplies to Union of Islamic Courts
fighters: at least seven suspected supply flights have
landed over the last three days in Mogadishu, and three ships
(one carrying 500 Eritreans) have reportedly sailed for
Somalia. On the eve of an expected IGAD ministerial-level
meeting in Nairobi, Somalia's PermRep to the African Union
anticipates that IGAD will formally endorse a detailed plan
for an international peacekeeping operation in Somalia, for
consideration by the AU Peace and Security Council and
ultimately the UN Security Council. Farah expressed concern
about Egyptian ambivalence toward the TFG, and about the role
the League of Arab States may be playing in Mogadishu. END
SUMMARY.


2. (U) DCM and deputy pol-econ counselor met July 31 with
Abdulkarim Farah, Ambassador of Somalia's TFG to Ethiopia and
the TFG's Permanent Representative to the African Union.
Farah was accompanied by two Puntland State of Somalia
ministers: Minister of Finance Mohamed Ali Yosuf, and Vice
Minister of Port, Transport and Marine Resources Abdulwali
Abdulrahman Gayre.

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MINISTER'S ASSASSINS REPORT OTHERS AT LARGE
--------------


3. (C) Amb. Farah said that "the TFG has survived," despite
several difficult events over the preceding three days,
including the July 28 killing of Minister of State Affairs
Abdalla Derrow Issak, the resignation of nearly 20 other TFG
ministers, and an attempt by parliament to pass a motion of
no-confidence in Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Ghedi:

-- Authorities had already captured six suspects who had
infiltrated the TFG's base at Baidoa; they reported being
paid for the assassination and alleged that 21 additional
assassins were targeting other officials, Farah said. Prime
Minister Ali Mohamed Ghedi believed that either he or
President Abdullahi Yusuf would be targeted next, Farah
added. He said it was possible that the TFG could relocate
from Baidoa to the relative safety of Puntland, "where the
TFG was born."

-- Politically, the TFG was secure for at least another six
months, Farah said, having defeated recent parliamentary
efforts to pass a vote of no-confidence in PM Ghedi; the
Transitional Charter allowed such a motion only every six
months, he explained. While 139 of 257 parliamentarians
would have been needed to adopt such a vote, only 126 MPs had
voted for the motion. Farah attributed the no-confidence
motion to approximately 20 leaders in Mogadishu who had
previously sought to take power by force, and who had pledged
to reject whomever was nominated to replace PM Ghedi. Farah
said the recent resignation of nearly 20 TFG ministers did
not weaken the TFG: "President Yusuf is a strong man; we
need 30 more to resign," he said. There had been nearly 80
ministers, and all remained members of parliament even if
they resigned their ministerial position.

-- The Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) now had its momentum
broken, and was suffering from a crisis of leadership, he
said. Former interim (i.e., Transitional National
Government) Prime Minister Ali Khalif Galayhd had left
university lecturing in Minnesota to travel to Mogadishu and
negotiate with the UIC, Farah said, adding that Galayhd
wanted to become prime minister again.

-- Farah also asserted that the approximately 120 militia
members who had recently defected to the UIC had subsequently
reversed their decision. Now sheltered in Farah's home town

ADDIS ABAB 00002093 002 OF 003


of Beled Weyne, the militia sought to return to Baidoa.
Their continued allegiance to the TFG resulted from
disillusionment with the ICU: "What they saw, and what they
expected, were different," Farah said.

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ERITREAN SUPPLIES ARRIVE BY AIR AND BY SEA
--------------


4. (C) Amb. Farah appealed for international assistance to
monitor Somali airspace, asserting that Eritrea continued to
supply UIC forces. While there had been only a single
commercial flight from Dubai, from July 29-31 seven chartered
flights suspected of carrying supplies for the ICU had
arrived at Mogadishu; in some cases, the same aircraft had
made two flights in the same day, he said. In addition, Amb.
Farah said, "international intelligence" had reported three
ships leaving the Eritrean port of Asmara: the TFG could
confirm that one ship carrying 500 Eritrean forces had docked
July 29 at Warshiikh (approximately 50 km north of
Mogadishu); the location of the other two ships was unknown.
Eritrea was providing the ICU with logistical support so the
ICU could expand its reach toward Puntland, Farah said, but
President Yusuf had pledged that the TFG "will try our best
to resist." Libya was financing the Eritrean effort, Farah
said.


5. (C) Ethiopian insurgents also continue to enter Somalia,
Farah said, asserting that 13 vehicles carrying Ogaden
National Liberation Front (ONLF) fighters had been sighted
crossing the border toward Beled Weyne.

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IGAD FOREIGN MINISTERS EXPECTED TO ENDORSE PKO
-------------- -


6. (C) Amb. Farah expected the extraordinary
ministerial-level session of the Inter-Governmental Authority
on Development (IGAD),convening August 1 in Nairobi, to
endorse a detailed plan for a peacekeeping operation in
Somalia (IGASOM) as anticipated by the UN Security Council,
which he said had shown tremendous support of the TFG.
According to Farah, a nine-day AU/IGAD/League of Arab States
fact-finding mission to Somalia would conclude that, within
Somalia, only Mogadishu opposed the deployment of
peacekeeping forces. Farah added that even Puntland, which
had its own security forces, would endorse a peacekeeping
mission "out of solidarity" with the TFG. Farah said he was
pushing the AU to convene a meeting of the AU Peace and
Security Council immediately after (i.e., by August 4) the
IGAD ministerial, in order to endorse IGAD's conclusions.


7. (C) Asked about the TFG's relations with Somaliland
authorities, Amb. Farah noted that residents of Somaliland
"are our brothers but Somaliland is a part of Somalia." The
TFG supported Somaliland's effort to promote peace and
reconstruction for its people, but could not accept
secession. Nevertheless, while the TFG opposed Somaliland's
efforts at seeking recognition in international
organizations, the TFG deliberately avoided any provocative
action or statement toward Somaliland, Farah said.


8. (SBU) Farah and Puntland Vice Minister Gayre noted that
while Hargeisa's airport was commonly used by most
expatriates returning to Somalia, Puntland authorities were
developing airports and seaports at Galcayo and Bossaso, in
consultation with Ethiopia and with funding from the EU.
Minister Gayre said that Puntland welcomed all Somalis, and
had even attracted foreign traders from Ethiopia, Yemen, and
Congo. Gayre said he wished the United States were more
active in Puntland, like the EU.

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AMBIVALENCE TOWARD EGYPT, ARAB LEAGUE
--------------


9. (C) According to Farah, Ethiopia (one of 15 PSC members)
would likely not be required to recuse itself from the AU
PSC, particularly as decisions would be taken by consensus.
He expressed concern about the positions of Djibouti and of
Egypt. For eight years, he said, Egypt had been ambivalent
toward the TFG, neither supporting nor opposing PSC actions

ADDIS ABAB 00002093 003 OF 003


on Somalia, and seeking to weaken PSC communiques. Farah
said he would personally advocate Somalia's withdrawal from
the League of Arab States, which he said was not as eager to
play a constructive role as IGAD. The League now had an
office in Mogadishu, but its activities were unclear, he
said. The League had renewed pledges made in 2003 to provide
USD 56 million to Somalia, but had not actually provided any
funds to the TFG, he said.

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ETHIOPIAN PRESS LOBBYING FOR IGASOM INTERVENTION
-------------- ---


10. (U) In the leadup to the IGAD ministerial, Ethiopian and
AU officials have been advocating a peacekeeping operation
and a revision to the UNSC-imposed arms embargo on Somalia.
Consistent with the AU Summit's July 2 Declaration on Somalia
and previous AU PSC communiques, AU Peace and Security
Commissioner Said Djinnit was quoted in local media as
calling for revision of the arms embargo to allow the
expeditious deployment of IGASOM, following a July 25
briefing by Ambassador Farah to the PSC (refs A-B). Over the
last week, Ethiopian state-run media have featured lead
articles highlighting GOE Minister Bereket Simon discussing
the fundamentalist threat posed by the UIC's al-Qaida and
AIAI-affiliated leaders, Harari Islamic Supreme Council
Chairman Hajji Ibrahim Abdurrahman rejecting the UIC's
dismantling of the legitimate TFG, and GOE reports on
Eritrea's active support for the UIC in Somalia. The July 28
edition of the state-run "Ethiopian Herald" featured a lead
story entitled, "International Community Does Not Wish To See
TGS Blown Away by Jihadists: Meles." The article
highlighted remarks by PM Meles that "Ethiopia is sending a
clear message to the international community to get tackling
Islamic Courts in Somalia or 'we will.'" (NOTE: Charge and
CJTF-HOA Commander Rear Admiral Richard Hunt's July 31
meeting with PM Meles will be reported septel.)


11. (SBU) BIO-NOTE: Puntland Vice Minister of Port, Transport
and Marine Resources Abdulwali Abdulrahman Gayre is a U.S.
citizen who studied in Minnesota. He and Minister of Finance
Mohamed Ali Yosuf have been invited to attend a conference on
Puntland in Minnesota. Like many Somali officials, Yosuf
travels on an Ethiopian passport. Amb. Farah (a UK citizen)
noted that many UIC extremists traveled on Ethiopian
passports through Dubai. He noted that Somalia had given two
passports (one regular, one diplomatic) to Ethiopian Prime
Minister Meles, one of which was on public display in a
museum.


12. (C) COMMENT: Assassination in Baidoa, the mass
resignation of ministers, and a nearly successful vote of
no-confidence highlight the political vulnerability of
Somali's Transitional Federal Government, even as it faces
significant security threats from Islamic extremists and the
UIC's suspected foreign backers. It is increasingly urgent
to approve an IGAD mission to support and train the TFG.
Failure to do so could result in further weakening and
defections within the TFG. If IGAD foreign ministers adopt a
peacekeeping plan, they will be giving fruition to an
operation originally proposed two years ago. In addition to
Ambassador Farah's request for international assistance to
monitor its airspace, Post recommends interagency efforts to
monitor Somalia's coastline in order to prevent or interdict
further shipments of troops or supplies to the UIC, which
risk destabilizing not only the TFG but the region. END
COMMENT.
HUDDLESTON