Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ADDISABABA1870
2006-07-07 15:34:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

ETHIOPIA: MELES ENGAGES PARLIAMENT IN FINAL

Tags:  PGOV PREL ECON ER ET 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO2224
PP RUEHROV
DE RUEHDS #1870/01 1881534
ZNY CCCCC ZZH
P 071534Z JUL 06
FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1476
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RHMFISS/CJTF HOA PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USCENTCOM MACDILL AFB FL PRIORITY
RUEKJCS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 001870 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ER ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: MELES ENGAGES PARLIAMENT IN FINAL
SESSION BEFORE RECESS

REF: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES VICKI HUDDLESTON. REASON: 1.4(D)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 001870

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF/E
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/06/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON ER ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: MELES ENGAGES PARLIAMENT IN FINAL
SESSION BEFORE RECESS

REF: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES VICKI HUDDLESTON. REASON: 1.4(D)


1. (SBU) SUMMARY. In his final address to parliamentarians
prior to their summer recess, Prime Minister Meles Zenawi
gave a wide-ranging overview of his governmentQs
accomplishments and the political and economic progress in
Ethiopia over the last year. He highlighted that the recent
multi-party dialogue that took place between the GoE and the
primary opposition parties on parliamentary procedural reform
was a significant step toward strengthening inter-party
working relationships. Meles promised to continue the
dialogue on the media environment and reform of the National
Electoral Board (NEB) during the recess with a view toward
presenting legislation to Parliament when it resumes in
October. In response to parliamentariansQ requests that the
detained Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD) leadership
be released, the PM declined to intervene in legal matters
and recalled the GOE's efforts to negotiate with the CUD
prior to the outbreak of violence. Meles reassured
parliamentarians that although Eritrean subversion and the
Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) represented threats to
Ethiopia, the Ethiopian military was prepared to handle them.
Speaking on economic issues, Meles reported that over the
last year the Ethiopian economy had grown by 8.55 percent and
exports had increased by 20 percent. He acknowledged that
inflation had risen to 12.4 percent, which many
parliamentarians claimed was hurting their constituents.
Comment: Opposition MPs are not yet offering a strong,
coherent challenge to the ruling party on economic issues,
but the frank exchanges in the chamber and successful
revision of procedures demonstrate that Ethiopia's Parliament
has made great strides in the past year. END SUMMARY.

--------------
INTER-PARTY DIALOGUE BEARS FRUIT
--------------


2. (U) Meles highlighted the achievements to date of the
dialogue that the ruling Ethiopian Peoples Revolutionary

Democratic Front (EPRDF) had maintained with parliamentary
opposition parties on reforms to parliamentary procedures
recommended by international experts. He claimed that in
these talks, his government had agreed to changes even beyond
those requested by the opposition. (Note: Parliament
approved the package of changes on July 5 (septel) End
Note.) The Prime Minister also stated that further
inter-party discussions on reforms to the National Election
Board (NEB) and the media law would take place during the
ParliamentQs recess with a view toward presenting legislation
to Parliament when it resumes in October. Meles praised
parties for their willingness to engage in dialogue and he
stressed that this cooperation forms the basis of the
democratic system. The GOE also received parliamentary
approval for an extension of the mandate of the current NEB
through November of 2006, by which time Meles said he
expected to consult opposition leaders on the appointment of
a new board. Some opposition MPs expressed frustration that
inter-party dialogues had not yet dealt with the media and
the NEB, and some voted against the renewal of the current
mandate.


3. (U) Several opposition party leaders expressed
appreciation for the EPRDFQs willingness to engage in
dialogue and indicated that it marked a significant step in
the right direction. They reaffirmed a willingness to
further engage with the GoE to discuss reforms to the NEB and
media law in the fall. At the same time, other MPs
complained that repression of opposition activists and
supporters continued in the countryside and complained that
agreed-upon inquiries into these problems had not yet
materialized.

--------------
CUD TRIAL REMAINS POINT OF CONTENTION
--------------


4. (U) Meles noted that the previous year had been marked by
political difficulty and that certain individual politicians
(meaning the jailed CUD leadership) had Qresorted to violence
and rebellion.Q He pointed out that prior to the outbreak of
violence, the government went out of its way to solve the
matter through dialogue, but ultimately, in order to maintain

ADDIS ABAB 00001870 002 OF 003


law and order, had to take legal action against these
individuals.


5. (U) Many opposition MPs denounced the continuing detention
of leadership of the Coalition for Unity and Democracy (CUD)
and asked the government to set them free. CUDP whip
Temesgen Zewdie argued that by the CUDPQs joining parliament
and engaging in dialogue with the EPRDF, it had Qinvested in
peace and is now waiting for a dividend.Q Meles responded
that the GoE had learned lessons as a result of the actions
of Qviolent leadership of the CUDQ last year and that it not
permit such unrest to happen again. He claimed the Diaspora
CUD (which he said was in league with the jailed CUD members)
had Qclosed ranksQ with the Eritrean government -- a very
serious issue. The PM stated that he would not intervene in
the trial of the CUD leadership and that the judicial process
must be allowed to run its course. Charges against the CUD
leaders Qdemonstrate that those who cause damage will be
punishedQ and that Qno political leaders are above the law.Q
He further pointed out that the GoE tried to negotiate with
the CUD, but then the violence of last year happened, and Qas
the Americans say, QYou break it, you bought it.QQ

--------------
ETHIOPIA PREPARED TO HANDLE BORDER THREATS
--------------


6. (U) On foreign affairs, Meles stressed that the good
relations that Ethiopia enjoys with neighbors Sudan, Djibouti
and Kenya, were essential. He pointed out that though there
were occasional disputes between local villages on the
Ethiopian/Kenyan border, this was not an issue that disrupted
the good relations between the two governments. He offered a
much less positive assessment of EthiopiaQs relations with
its other two neighbors, Eritrea and Somalia. He praised the
USG efforts in attempting to broker peace and stability
between Ethiopia and Eritrea, but complained that the process
has been shut down because the Eritrean government has not
shown an interest in peace. He further pointed out a recent
United Nations report which accuses Eritrea of supplying arms
to the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC) in Somalia, as well as
other dissident groups within Ethiopia, He called the GSE a Q
mentor to radicals and terrorists.Q He also reiterated the
GOEQs claim that the bombs that exploded in Addis Ababa in
early 2006 were due to the alliance between Eritrea and rebel
groups within Ethiopia. Regarding Somalia, Meles said that
not all supporters of the UIC were fundamentalists, and that
Ethiopia supports the internationally-recognized Transitional
Federal Government (TFG) as well as the African Union and
IGAD proposal to deploy a peace support mission in Somalia.
CUDP MP Mulualem Tarekegn suggested that continuing domestic
discontent in Ethiopia would wear down the countryQs ability
to defend itself against external threats. Meles answered
that there was nothing to worry about on this score.

-------------- -
ECONOMY STRENGTHENS BUT INFLATION HURTING POOR
-------------- -


7. (U) Meles was upbeat in highlighting EthiopiaQs economic
performance, pointing out that over the prior 11 months the
GDP had grown 8.5 percent and that the GOE was targeting 7-10
percent growth over the next few years. He also reported 20
percent growth in exports over the same period, which was
above expectations. On the downside, Ethiopia had registered
a 12.4 percent inflation rate; the Prime Minister also
forecasted a budget deficit of approximately $850 million.


8. (U) Many opposition members expressed approval of the
countryQs overall economic performance but complained about
high commodity prices, particularly those of grain and
cement. They pointed out that rising prices of these basic
products made life very difficult for average Ethiopians and
hampered further economic growth. The CUDP's Temesgen Zewde
asked Meles why the GoE had not intervened to fight
inflation. Meles explained that rapid growth of the economy
had simply increased demand for these products Q a normal
market reaction Q and that the market would respond
eventually by producing more. Meles wryly noted that CUDP
MPs, supposedly the defenders of orthodox economic policy,
were less than coherent in their arguments. Opposition
members asked why the GoE had not helped the 3,000 business
owners that had gone bankrupt in the last 4 years, to which

ADDIS ABAB 00001870 003 OF 003


Meles responded that there is nothing that a government can
do short of paying off their debts, which he said his
government would not do.

--------------
AUDITOR'S REPORT SPARKS DEBATE ON FEDERALISM
--------------


9. (C) CUDP MP Mulualem Tarekegne and other MPs raised the
report offered to Parliament several weeks earlier by
Ethiopia's independent Auditor General. They claimed that
the report showed that there had been no accountability for
over $600 million in transfers from the federal government to
Ethiopia's regional governments. Opposition parliamentarians
questioned why no report had been made on how this money had
been spent. PM Meles reacted with particular vehemence to
these criticisms, claiming that the Auditor General had
exceeded his constitutional mandate in calling for accounting
of these funds. Regions enjoyed complete autonomy and
entitlement concerning this money -- they could burn it if
they so chose -- and the federal government had no role in
its oversight. Jalal Abdul Latiff (protect),a senior
Ethiopian World Bank expert, told the Charge later that this
debate was a manifestation of the continuing tension between
the ruling party's vision of ethnic federalism and the CUDP's
concept of a strong, unitary Ethiopian state.

-------------- --------------
COMMENT: Parliament Progressing, Opposition Needs Help
-------------- --------------


10. (C) It is both remarkable and encouraging to see the
evolution of the Ethiopian House of People's Representatives
over the past year. It has gone from an institution
boycotted and de-legitimized by the jailed CUD leadership to
a functioning and lively forum for debate populated by over
150 of the 172 opposition MPs elected to serve there. The
adoption of a package of reforms to parliamentary structures
and procedures (septel) in the Parliament's last week, while
not as ambitious as some parties hoped, nonetheless provided
an encouraging ending to the legislative session. Also
encouraging was the increasing level of media and public
attention to parliamentary debates.


11. (C) A dozen different opposition MPs challenged different
aspects of the PM's year-end presentation. Though some
questions posed were well conceived, many reflected the
limited understanding of economics and other policy issues,
as well as a lack of political focus, among opposition MPs
generally. (No doubt the same is true of most backbench
EPRDF MPs as well.) A group of knowledgeable civil society
leaders gathered July 6 at the Charge's residence agreed that
while MPs were able to speak freely, no opposition leader had
effectively challenged the well-informed and articulate Meles
on issues where the PM was vulnerable. One journalist noted
that for many Ethiopians, it had become obvious that the
opposition's most able leaders were not in Parliament, but
rather in jail.


12. (C) The sometimes disappointing performance of opposition
MPs points to the need for increased capacity-building, both
in terms of hiring staff and improving party organizations,
as well as in terms of increased training and briefings on
substantive issues. Current opposition MPs have both the
inclination and potential to engage in serious debate;
international donors are already developing programs to help
them. Of course, freeing and reincorporating detained CUD
MPS into the democratic system eventually would provide the
ultimate boost to parliament's legitimacy.
HUDDLESTON