Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ADDISABABA1783
2006-06-29 16:36:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

MELES/FRAZER REVIEW APPROACH TO SOMALIA

Tags:  PGOV PREL PTER 
pdf how-to read a cable
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ADDIS ABABA 001783 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER
SUBJECT: MELES/FRAZER REVIEW APPROACH TO SOMALIA


Classified By: A/S Jendayi Frazer for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ADDIS ABABA 001783

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV PREL PTER
SUBJECT: MELES/FRAZER REVIEW APPROACH TO SOMALIA


Classified By: A/S Jendayi Frazer for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Assistant Secretary Frazer opened the
meeting by telling Prime Minister Meles that we appreciate
Ethiopia's restraint and contacts warning the Union of
Islamic
Courts (ICU) that Ethiopia would not tolerate an attack on
Baidoa as the seat of the Transitional Federal Government
(TFG) nor countenance armed insurgents on its border.
After Frazer laid out the results and rationale of the
international
Somalia Contact Group, Meles urged the USG to play a
leading role in supporting the TFG with public statements
and by supporting the lifting of the arms embargo so that
the TFG could protect itself and the people of Somalia. He
said that the best plan would be the formation of an IGAD
peace force, but a fall back would be UNSC acceptance of
the TFG support plan. Frazer said that the USG recognizes
the TFG but that a consensus had not been reached on
partially lifting the arms embargo. Meles underlined the
fact that if the TFG crumbles or is attacked and flees,
there will be no government entity around which moderate
Somalis can rally. The ICU is not monolithic but made up
of different interests that could result in division within
the ICU. There are the economic and political interests of
clans and sub-clans of which the Ayr are the strongest;
there are the insurgents who hope to destabilize Ethiopia;
and Islamists with a Fundamentalist ideology. Meles went
on to point out that US and Ethiopian interests converge
because the USG wants to stop Somalia from becoming a
global threat and Ethiopia must stop Somalia from being
used as a base to destabilize it. Ethiopia has reached out
to the ICU and there have been some positive signs that the
ICU will not attack Baidoa, however, should the ICU do so;
Ethiopia will respond. Our meeting followed the seemingly
successful conclusion of an agreement between the ICU and
the TFG. Consequently, Meles was hopefully that a
Somalia-Ethiopia conflict could be avoided. The subsequent
reports that a Fundamentalist has taken over the ICU
leadership will heighten the possibility of continued ICU
expansion and conflict. End Summary



2. (C) Dr. Jendayi Frazer, Assistant Secretary for
African Affairs, Charge Vicki Huddleston, Admiral Rick
Hunt, and Special Assistants Kendra Gaither and Commander
Sowa, and Somalia desk officer Nole Garey met with Prime
Minister Meles, Ms. Almaz Chief of the European and North
American Division of the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs on June 23. Ms. Almaz Ameha and Mr.
Gerbretensai, Special Assistant to the Prime Minister
accompanied the Prime Minister. Dr. Frazer extended
greeting from President Bush and Secretary Rice to the
Prime Minister. She then turned to the issue of the
current turmoil in Somalia,pointing out that the Secretary
is reconfiguring US policy on Somalia. In that context the
USG had formed, at the suggestion of Norway, an international
Somalia
Contact Group to share ideas and information among a small
group of interested
governments; its purpose was not decision making. The Arab
League and IGAD
will be observers at future meetings.


3. (C) Frazer said that the Contact Group and the USG
support the Transitional Federal Government (TFG) as the
legitimate government. Some in the contact Group would
like the arms embargo on Somalia to be lifted, others were
unsure. For this reason it is especially important for the
international community to understand IGAD's concept for
assisting militarily the TFG. The USG understands
Ethiopia's position that there cannot be an extremist
government in Somalia. But Ethiopia should not go into
Somalia as it would be seen as support for TFG President
Yusuf and could be used to whip up support for the Union of
Islamic
Courts (ICU). Frazer said that Ethiopia's strategy of
preventing the ICU from attacking through deterrence is a
good one, but warned, "Don't move preemptively." You have
given the ICU your red lines and we've seen some positive
impact of this on the ICU. Frazer pointed out that the
copy cat Islamic Courts that are popping up in places such
as Beledweyne on Ethiopia's border may not be the same as
the ICU itself, but opportunist attempting to get on the
right side of the ICU. The USG agrees with the region that
we cannot permit a radical Islamic state to succeed in
Somalia,
but the moderates within the ICU must be given a chance.
Frazer said that although the USG reserves judgment on the
ICU, we continued to be greatly concerned about the three
Al Qaida linked terrorists in Mogadishu. She

ADDIS ABAB 00001783 002 OF 004


pointed out that we will still go after these individuals
but in a different manner.


4. (C) Prime Minister Meles responded that the silver
lining in all this is that the USG is taking a direct
interest in Somalia
and in the region, "not
burying its head in the sand," he said. Meles commended
the USG initiatives: Frazer's visit to the region; and the
US initiative in forming the Somalia Contact Group. He
then laid out his view of the ICU and why Ethiopia believes
its security and the region's is threatened. In Meles' view
the ICU is composed of the following factions:

-- A variety of Clan and Sub-Clan based
groups and individuals with a variety of ideas and
self-interests; some are ideologically driven
some want union. The Hawiye Clan is the backbone of
support for the ICU;

-- Armed groups such as the OLF (Oromiya
Liberation Front) and the ONLF (Ogaden National Liberation
Front) that are conducting insurgencies in Ethiopia and
along with the ICU are receiving training and arms from
Eritrea;

-- The Islamists who support a Jihad and
have foreign fighters as well as Al Qaida operatives in
Mogadishu.


5. Each of these three groups, according to Meles, pursues
their own interests. The clans and sub-clans are driven by
politics and economic gain. The Hawiye Clan over recent
years had expropriated much of the property in Mogadishu
that once belonged to other clans and sub clans.
Ethiopia's strategy is to encourage the Hawiye Clan --
especially the base of ICU support -- the Ayr -- to break
from the Islamists. However, this can only be successful
if the Ayr do not fear that they will lose the economic and
political gains they have acquired in Mogadishu. The
Islamists for their part are not driven by clan politics
but by ideology. (Comment: Ethiopia's contacts with the
Ayr are likely
also designed to convince the Ayr that their interests can
be just as successfully met by the TFG ((and Ethiopia)) as
by the Islamists. End comment.)


6. (C) The USG and Ethiopia have parallel interests in
Somalia, Meles said because of the confluence of regional
and global interests. The US is driven by the global threat
posed by the Islamists. Ethiopia while also concerned
about the larger global terrorist threat, has specific
national security interests because its territorial
integrity is threatened by Ethiopian fighters allied to the
ICU who are members of local insurgencies. Ethiopia's
security requirements make it imperative that Ethiopia
never allow an armed group in Somalia to have a base of
operations near its borders. Meles said that to avoid this
Ethiopia has twice entered and removed armed groups that
threatened it from Somalia. The "Taliban" (the ICU) in
Mogadishu poses a threat to Ethiopia, to the TFG, and to
regional stability in Puntland and Somaliland.
Although the TFG and Puntland are close -- the President of
the TFG is from Puntland -- the TFG and Somaliland are not
close. Both Puntland and Somaliand are concerned about the
threat from the ICU. (Comment: Ethiopia is encouraging
them to unite with Ethiopia against ICU further expansion.
end
comment.)


7. (C) Meles explained the rationale for Ethiopia's
decision to respond to an ICU attack on Baidoa the TFG
capital. In his view neither Ethiopia nor the
international community can allow the TFG to be
destroyed. If the TFG were destroyed there would be no
rallying point around which the moderate elements could
coalesce and confront the ICU and the Islamists. Therefore
what Ethiopia is trying to do, "Is steady the ship so that
the rats will not scramble to get off the sinking ship. Our
going in is a risk we would take to prevent them (the ICU)
from achieving their objective. But we prefer to warn them
off," Meles explained. If Ethiopia can successfully
warn-off the ICU from attacking Baidoa then the TFG can be
strengthened militarily by the region. Currently the TFG
needs protection from the outside because it lacks
capacity. This can be resolved if TFG forces are trained
and equipped by the region, Meles argued. (Comment: Meles
and Foreign Minister Seyoum both pointed out that time is
of the essence in getting international community support
for the partial lifting of the arms embargo so that the TFG

ADDIS ABAB 00001783 003 OF 004


could defend itself. end Comment.)


8. (C) Ethiopia's strategy that has so far been effective
has been and continues to be to demonstrate to the ICU and
the Fundamentalists that it is prepared to intervene
militarily. Ethiopia has done this by being in touch with
all parties in Somalia, especially the Ayr sub-clan of the
Hawiye that are the real ICU force. The Ayr, according to
Meles have told Ethiopia's interlocutors that they will not
cross Ethiopia's red line by attacking Baidoa or by
supporting armed insurgents in the border town of Beledweyne
. "The risk of fighting has diminished; They are not
life threatening at this point," Meles said. Still it is
critical to get an agreement between the TFG and the ICU.
He praised the USG support for the TFG and for the TFG -
ICU dialogue, but he said more needs to be urgently done.
The arms embargo must be lifted because it is a farce.
Everyone can arm the Islamists and the UN has not lifted a
finger. As a result the arms embargo favors the Islamists.
The TFG needs to have proper arms and training so that the
balance of forces will be tilted toward it not the ICU.
Fortunately, with the Ethiopian contacts with the Ayr and
the agreement of sorts between the TFG and the ICU under
the auspices of the Arab League, there is now a breathing
space for the TFG to build up its force. But, Meles warned
the TFG will have to do the fighting and to do so they will
need training and arms.


9. (C) The IGAD Peace Keeping Force is one method of
keeping the peace that can stabilize the situation, Meles
said. However, if this is unworkable or is delayed the TFG
can be reinforced by direct support -- assuming the lifting
of the embargo - by its regional IGAD partners. If IGAD
provides a Peace Keeping Force it could provide the legal
frame work for the TFG to train and prepare. On the other
hand if this is not possible the TFG can be directly beefed
up. Ethiopia could violate the arms embargo to arm the TFG
like Eritrea has done with the ICU but, "This is not a good
way to go," Meles said. It would be much better for the
TFG to be able to arm itself and acquire training legally
whether via a Peace Support effort or directly from
interested governments once the arms embargo on the TFG is
lifted. In Meles' view the Islamists tide can be stemmed
by strengthening the TFG and stopping ICU expansion. If
the ICU is bottled up in Mogadishu, the differences in
ideology and interests will divide the ICU, allowing the
TFG to incorporate the healthy elements -- not Islamists
-- within the ICU. (Comment: Meles understands the risks
of Ethiopia going into Somalia and even the risks of
Ethiopia arming/training the TFG, therefore it prefers a
regional and legal approach. The bottom line remains that
Ethiopia will not
permit Somalia to turn into an Islamist state and to
prevent this it will support and defend the TFG. end
comment.)


10. (C) Meles said that if the USG takes the lead and
announces a clear policy of support for the TFG then it can
help stabilize Somalia. The region is willing, once it has
a clear sign from the USG, to take on the requirements of
assisting the TFG. The USG position is critical, for
example when the USG was against lifting the arms embargo
the region was paralyzed. Now that the USG is engaged,
its leadership in Somalia can bring about positive change.
The EU can also assist by providing the resources for
development. The region itself will train and equip the
TFG troops. Ethiopia would very much appreciate it if the
USG would share, its plans with Ethiopia, Meles said.
Ethiopia
has kept the former and current American Ambassadors
apprised of its activities. "We need to know what you are
doing. We always let you know what we are doing," Meles
argued.


11. (C) Assistant Secretary Frazer said she would take
Meles' request back to Washington. She also promised that
Washington would look at the arms embargo. At the Contact
Group there was no agreement, she said. In the interim,
the UK has proposed that the UN Security Council make a
statement
on Somalia. The UK-proposed statement says the UNSC will
look forward to a
detailed plan on the proposed IGAD force, and consider the
arms embargo in that context, Frazer said. She went on to
say that she will have to make recommendations, and "We
don't have forever." Frazer asked if the IGAD force would
hold to the original concept which was for IGAD to provide
protection for the TFG officials to go into Mogadishu? She
summed up
by saying that she looks forward to considering Meles'

ADDIS ABAB 00001783 004 OF 004


recommendations and underlined that the international
community prefers to support AU and IGAD positions.


12. (C) Before taking up the border questions, Meles
returned again to Somalia saying that while the idea of IGAD
peace keepers was good, it was not the essential condition.
The fall back would be the TFG security plan. If the UNSC
would back up the TFG security plan then that would be
sufficient. While the best case was IGAD peace
support force, Meles doubted that it would fly, possibly
because of the urgency of reinforcing the capability of the
TFG.


13. (C) Comment: Although the situation in Somalia
continues to evolve the feeling in Ethiopia and at the AU
is that there is an increasing urgency to provide - either
through IGAD peace keepers or directly -- military / police
capacity to the TFG. If the ICU does not move on Baidoa
there is still time to get this process started if the UN
will lift the arms embargo on the TFG, as the AU and IGAD
have requested. Ethiopia is ready to repel the ICU should
it attack Baidoa but would prefer to deter future ICU
advances and look to militarily strengthening TFG. PM Meles
and FM Seyoum made it clear -- and AU Chairperson Konare in
separate meetings concurred -- that Ethiopia must respond
before an Islamist state is established next door. Dr.
Frazer cleared this message.
HUDDLESTON