AFRICAN UNION: KONARE URGES US SUPPORT FOR SOMALI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 001782

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/29/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PTER KPKO MOPS AU SO ET
SUBJECT: AFRICAN UNION: KONARE URGES US SUPPORT FOR SOMALI
TFG THROUGH IGASOM

Classified By: A/S Jendayi Frazer for reasons 1.4 (B) and (D).



1. (C) SUMMARY: African Union (AU) Chairperson Konare told
A/S Frazer in a June 25 meeting that the Union of Islamic
Courts was currently probing to see how far it could expand,
but intended to take over all of Somalia if possible. An
expanding UIC would inevitably provoke war with Ethiopia, he
remarked. Konare predicted that the UIC rhetoric would focus
on three themes: 1) Islamic justice; 2) a Greater Somalia
that transcended current international borders; and 3)
Anti-Americanism. The AU Chairperson complained that the
Arab League had seized control of diplomacy on Somalia
through the agreement it brokered recently in Khartoum
between the UIC and Somali Transitional Federal Government
(TFG). He indicated he would talk to the Arab League to
"harmonize" positions. The Chairperson told A/S Frazer that
Yemen was playing a negative role in Somalia, as was
Eritrea. Increasing fundamentalism in Comoros also posed a
threat, particularly in combination with the UIC in Somalia.
He urged that the international community take steps urgently
to deploy an AU/IGAD IGASOM mission to Somalia as soon as
possible in order to support and protect the TFG; lifting the
UNSC arms embargo would be necessary. Konare said that the
June 28-29 AU/IGAD meeting with partner countries in Nairobi
could move this initiative forward. He cautioned against
pursuing earlier plans to include Sudanese troops in IGASOM.
Konare also expressed strong support for Somaliland
independence, though he cautioned that now was not the time
to press this issue. The Chairperson told A/S Frazer that
Yemen was playing a negative role in Somalia, as was
Eritrea. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) A/S Frazer called on AU Chairperson Alpha Omar
Konare June 25. Frazer was accompanied by Charge, CJTF-HOA
Commander RADM Rick Hunt, Lt. Commander Mike Sowa, AF Special
Assistant Kendra Gaither, AF Somalia/Djibouti deskoff Nole
Garey and Pol/Econ Counselor. Konare's special assistant,
Amb. Toure, joined the Chairperson. Discussions on Sudan and
the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) will be reported
via septel. This message focuses on Somalia.

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ISLAMIC COURTS POSE THREAT TO ETHIOPIA AND THE REGION
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3. (C) A/S Frazer said that the USG was concerned about
developments in Somalia. Reports indicated that the
relatively moderate chairman of the UIC had just been
replaced by extremist Sheikh Hassan Dahir Aweys, who appeard
on the USG's list of terrorists linked to Al Qaeda. Frazer
briefed Konare on the process of convening the International
Somalia Contact Group (SCG),which the U.S. envisioned as a
coordination, not an executive, body. Convenors had invited
the AU to participate and would now invite both IGAD and the
Arab League as well. The A/S said the USG had urged the SCG
to offer strong public support to the Somali TFG, while
reserving judgment on lifting the UN arms embargo on Somalia
and deployment of IGASOM. The USG had been afraid that such
steps would simply rally popular support in favor of the UIC
and harm the TFG. Frazer said the current situation was
dangerous and complex, and asked Konare's views.


4. (C) Konare told A/S Frazer that the Union of Islamic
Courts was currently probing to see how far it could expand,
but intended to take over all of Somalia if possible. An
expanding UIC would inevitably provoke war with Ethiopia, he
remarked. Konare predicted that the UIC rhetoric would focus
on three themes: 1) Islamic justice; 2) a Greater Somalia
that transcended current international borders; and 3)
Anti-Americanism. He reminded Frazer that the AU had been
asking for stronger USG support for the TFG for the previous
two years because it appreciated the threat that
fundamentalists in Somalia could pose, including a potential
attack against the U.S. military base in Djibouti. Konare
claimed the AU had also warned against using one militia
against another in Somalia. Now the UIC, who were clearly
not good people, had gained the upper hand. Increasing
fundamentalism in Comoros also posed a threat, particularly
in combination with the UIC in Somalia.


5. (C) Konare recalled that the formation of the TFG was the
fruit of regionally-supported efforts to build compromise
among Somalia's clans. In spite of this international

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legitimacy, the TFG remained weak. If the TFG and UIC were
to clash militarily today, the Chairperson said, the TFG
would lose and Ethiopia would intervene in Somalia. It was
essential, he said, to avoid leaving this problem to
Ethiopia, since the UIC would utilize rhetoric about "Greater
Somalia" to cause unrest in the Ogaden and further
destabilize the whole region. The best course would be to
preserve and strengthen the TFG, as well as the regional
consensus on Somalia that the TFG embodied.

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ARAB LEAGUE SEEKS TO MAKE SOMALIA AN ARAB PROBLEM
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6. (C) The AU Chairperson complained that the Arab League
(AL) had seized control of diplomacy on Somalia through the
agreement it brokered recently in Khartoum between the UIC
and TFG. Konare said that he had protested against the AU's
exclusion from the Arab League initiative, including to TFG
President Yusuf. Konare suggested that the Arab League had
its own agenda for the initiative: make Somalia an Arab
problem, rather than an African one. This path led
ultimately to the issue of "Greater Somalia" and a major
problem with Ethiopia. It also reflected the ambitions of
Sudanese President Al-Bashir to consolidate his leadership
both in the Arab League and eventually in the AU too. Bashir
will make a bid to take over as AU Chairman from President
Sassou-Nguesso in 2007. The Chairperson told A/S Frazer that
Yemen was also playing a negative role in Somalia, as was
Eritrea; he asked that the USG talk to these countries and
try to modify their behavior, and said he would travel
himself to Yemen, where the next Arab League meeting would
likely be held. He indicated he would talk to the Arab
League to "harmonize" positions.

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KONARE: SUPPORT TFG THROUGH IGASOM
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7. (C) Konare urged that the international community take
steps urgently to deploy an AU/IGAD IGASOM mission to Somalia
as soon as possible in order to support and protect the TFG,
even if the UIC opposed such a mission. Konare said that the
June 28-29 AU/IGAD meeting with partner countries in Nairobi
could move this initiative forward. If the international
community did not move quickly, the UIC would rapidly occupy
all of Somalia, exile the TFG and provoke a military response
from Ethiopia. Lifting the UNSC arms embargo would be
necessary for IGASOM deployment. "We can't be hypocrites,"
the Chairperson said. "The UIC already has the weapons it
needs!" He added that lifting the embargo would have to be
handled correctly so as not to help the UIC. Konare
cautioned against pursuing earlier plans to include Sudanese
troops in IGASOM; their participation would complicate the
mission. Another alternative would have to be found, he
said.

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KONARE SUPPORTS SOMALILAND INDEPENDENCE, REGIONAL
INTEGRATION
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8. (C) The Chairperson told A/S Frazer that in addition to
the TFG, Somaliland also deserved the support of the
international community. He recalled that as recently as a
year ago, he had opposed Somaliland's desire for
independence; now it seemed inevitable. Somaliland's
advancement would be good for democracy in the region, Konare
added. The reality of Somaliland should be respected, he
said, though there was no rush to do so. Moving too quickly
might help the UIC. The Chairperson noted that his position
prevented him from supporting Somaliland publicly in any
case; he was not ready to lay his cards on the table. He
lamented that Somaliland's president believed that the AU was
"wasting its time" with the TFG. The president did not
understand that without the TFG, there would never be a
Somaliland. He Konare remarked that Somalis throughout the
region would eventually return to their dream of unity, not
as a Greater Somali state, but rather through broader
regional integration.

This cable has been cleared by AF Assistant Secretary Jendayi
Frazer.
HUDDLESTON