ETHIOPIA: FOREIGN MINISTER TELLS ABIZAID

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ADDIS ABABA 001719

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF DAS YAMAMOTO AND AF/E
DJIBOUTI FOR A/S DR. FRAZER
LONDON, PARIS, ROME FOR AFRICA WATCHER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2016
TAGS: PREL PTER MOPS ET SO
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: FOREIGN MINISTER TELLS ABIZAID
ETHIOPIA'S PREPARED RESPOND TO UIC PROVOCATION


Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES VICKI HUDDLESTON FOR REASONS
1.4 (B,D)



1. (C) Summary. Foreign Minister Seyoum Mesfin met with
Commander, U.S. Central Command General John Abizaid and the
Charge June 19 to discuss the GOE's growing military force
along the Somali border and its warning to the UIC that any
perceived threat will be met with military action. Seyoum
stressed the need to stop the momentum of the UIC and protect
the TFG. He said Ethiopia has national security interests on
the border and it will respond if provoked by the UIC. He
continued by saying that if fighting occurs and if Ethiopia
intervenes, then nothing will stop Ethiopia from going to
Mogadishu. End Summary.


WILL NOT ALLOW A FUNDAMENTALIST GOVERNMENT TO THREATEN
ETHIOPIA
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2. (C) When asked by General Abizaid about the dynamics of
the Union of Islamic Courts (UIC),the Foreign Minister said
we need to keep strong lines of communication between the
United States and Ethiopia. He said Ethiopia is frustrated
that there was no strategic consultation with Ethiopia on
Somalia. He stressed that at least consultation should
occur. Seyoum added that there does not necessarily need to
be agreement, but we should at least talk. Seyoum said the
situation in Somalia has backfired. The UIC, he noted, rely
on sub-clan militias. The Foreign Minister added that,
"there are only a few who follow the radical Islamic ideology
and Ethiopia knows who they are. These are people who have
been in Afghanistan and trained there. These individuals are
fully exploiting the current situation in Somalia. They are
taking advantage of the total collapse of the state
structure. The UIC now provide minimal services such as
schools, food, and security. The UIC is now winning at
gaining hearts and minds in Somalia."


3. (C) Concerning Ethiopian intentions in Somalia, Seyoum
stated he had brought some "hardliner" UIC representatives to
Addis Ababa for discussions on at least two occasions (the
last time being June 17-18). He explained how Ethiopia
communicated a clear message to stop military expansion, and
told the hardliners the forces in Beledweyne need to pack and
go back to Mogadishu. If the TFG is attacked, Seyoum said,
Ethiopia will intervene regardless of the response from the
international community. Seyoum told the General that the
UIC response was they would pull back and they would not go
to Baidoa. Seyoum said Ethiopia is not over estimating or
over exaggerating the threat, however. According to the
Minister, Ethiopia has under estimated the threat. He added
that Somalia is in absolute chaos with between 50,000 to
80,000 armed militia, even if the estimate is only having
this figure there is problem. Additionally, the Somalia
coast is open thus giving free access to extremists.


4. (C) Abizaid asked Seyoum if Ethiopia is concerned that an
Ethiopian military intervention could strengthen the UIC.
Seyoum responded Ethiopia could not allow a fundamentalist
government that threats the Ogaden. He commented the
"useless" warlords are out and this could be a blessing in
disguise. He stressed the need to stop the momentum of the
UIC as it is moving region to region and especially if it
targets the TFG. He noted the UIC is not monolithic and that
fractures will likely emerge. He said Ethiopia has national
security interests on the border. General Abizaid asked who
is helping the UIC. Seyoum replied Eritrea has no money to
provide. Seyoum surmised that it is difficult to know, but
Libyan and Egyptian support would not be logical. Seyoum
thought that wealthy Islamic NGOs out of religious obligation
would provide support.

TFG 'LAME DUCK,' NEEDS ARMS EMBARGO LIFTED
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5. (C) The Foreign Minister said the Transitional Federal
Government (TFG) is a lame duck government because it lacks
international support and this support is not coming. He
said the TFG has tried its level best to divide the groups

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comprising the UIC. According to Seyoum, the TFG sees
Somalia under the rule of law, a secular society, and
fighting terrorism. But, Seyoum noted, it was unilaterally
disarmed due to the UN Security Council arms embargo. Seyoum
commented that the TFG must have the ability to establish its
own security forces assisted and armed by foreign countries.
Seyoum said the UN Security Council report stated the UIC get
arms from foreigners. Seyoum stressed the U.S. and Ethiopia
need to coordinate efforts to assist institutions and defend
them and not allow them to collapse again.


6. (C) The Charge commented there is slow movement on
strategic issues and noted differences on how to protect the
TFG: an IGAD force, African Union declaration, and/or
neighboring countries to send troops. Seyoum responded by
saying there is a problem if IGAD is not there and the
militants move toward Baidoa. This would result in the
dismantling of the TFG, and then there would be no choice but
to intervene and fight the UIC. He said Ethiopia is doing
the best thing: closely monitoring the situation and
reinforcing the border. Having the UIC is okay, says Seyoum,
though it is not comfortable. He added that having the UIC
in Beledweyne and Baidoa is unacceptable, however. He
continued by saying that if fighting occurs and if Ethiopia
intervenes, then nothing will stop Ethiopia from going to
Mogadishu.


7. (C) The Minister said the problem currently is the timing,
capability and desire of various countries to send troops.
Ethiopia has the capability to move quickly. Uganda cannot
move without international funding. A declaratory statement
would be helpful. Ethiopia does not want undermine the UN by
intervening, but it cannot sit back. Washington argues that
foreign troops will unite Somalia, but forces have already
united under the UIC. We cannot allow Somalia to become a
safe haven. Qanyare is negotiating to sell his weapons to
the UIC and transfer the money to banks in Djibouti.
HUDDLESTON