Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ADDISABABA169
2006-01-22 09:04:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Addis Ababa
Cable title:  

ETHIOPIA: OPPOSITION LEADERS EXPRESS FRUSTRATIONS

Tags:  PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM ET 
pdf how-to read a cable
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FM AMEMBASSY ADDIS ABABA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8702
INFO RUCNIAD/IGAD COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000169 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF DAS YAMAMOTO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: OPPOSITION LEADERS EXPRESS FRUSTRATIONS
TO A/S FRAZER


Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b) and (d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ADDIS ABABA 000169

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPARTMENT FOR AF DAS YAMAMOTO

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/21/2016
TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM ET
SUBJECT: ETHIOPIA: OPPOSITION LEADERS EXPRESS FRUSTRATIONS
TO A/S FRAZER


Classified By: Charge Vicki Huddleston for reason 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Leaders of Ethiopia's principal opposition
parties told A/S Frazer that the GOE continued to arrest and
harass their supporters, particularly in the Oromiya region.
They also demanded a larger voice in Parliament. Opposition
representatives asked that the USG apply more leverage on the
GOE to respect human rights, free detained CUD leaders and
engage in meaningful political dialogue. Ethiopia's former
president cautioned that mid-January unrest suggested that
people would resort to armed struggle eventually if PM Meles
did not engage all parties, including the CUD and OLF.
Participants in the Parliamentary opposition's ongoing
dialogue with the Prime Minister questioned the latter's
commitment to making real progress. Several suggested that
while PM Meles fully controlled his Tigrayan base, he may
face constraints from other ethnic parties within the ruling
coalition. A/S Frazer said that the USG was focused on
building democracy, rather than on protecting its security
interests through support for the current regime. She agreed
that external pressure for reform was part of the equation,
but that progress would ultimately depend on political actors
like them changing democratic institutions from within.
(Comment: the next several weeks will offer some good
indicators as to whether the GOE is prepared to deliver on
key promises, including a constructive response to an
international study of Ethiopian Parliamentary procedures.)
End Summary.


2. (SBU) A/S Jendayi Frazer met with leaders from Ethiopia's
principal opposition parties January 21, including Beyene
Petros and Merera Gudina of the United Ethiopian Democratic
Forces (UEDF),Temesgen Zewdie of the Coalition for Unity and
Democracy's (CUD) Parliamentary caucus and Bulcha Demeksa of
the Oromo Federalist Democratic Movement (OFDM). AF Special
Assistant Kendra Gaither and AF/RSA's Col. Kevin Kenny joined
the A/S, along with Charge Huddleston, DCM, Pol/Econ

Counselor and USAID's governance specialist.

More Parliamentary Seats, But a Lesser Voice
--------------


3. (C) A/S Frazer told opposition leaders that she was
encouraged by their strong showing in the 2005 elections,
which had dramatically increased their strength in
Parliament. Strong opposition parties were essential to
strong democracies, she said. It was unfortunate that the
situation in Ethiopia had turned violent; governments bore a
special responsibility to ensure that politics remained
peaceful, but the maturity of opposition movements was also a
key factor in building democracy across Africa. A/S Frazer
reiterated that democracy was one of the pillars of the Bush
Administration's foreign policy. Independent and effective
electoral boards played a key role in this process, she added.


4. (C) UEDF Chairman Beyene Petros and CUD whip Temesgen
Zewdie agreed that while opposition numbers in Parliament had
increased dramatically (note: rising from 12 to 170 out of
547 total seats),the opposition's voice in Parliament had
actually decreased. Beyene recalled that as one of only 12
opposition MPs in the previous Parliament, he had been
accorded more opportunity to speak than the opposition is
now. He and other participants in the opposition's ongoing
dialogue with the GOE were trying to amend Parliamentary
procedures to allow more room for real debate. "Right now,
we are only warming our chairs," Beyene said. Temesgen
agreed that both UEDF and CUD MPs had taken the politically
costly step of entering Parliament after assurances from the
PM that "everything could be discussed," but had since found
that the GOE was uninterested in serious engagement on their
agenda. Former Ethiopian President and current MP Negasso
Gidada noted that the new Parliament should have held a total
of 27 sessions so far, but had in fact met only 12 times; the
Speaker had also refused opposition requests to discuss
ongoing violence in Oromiya.

Opposition Supporters Still Jailed, Harassed
--------------


5. (C) Temesgen told the A/S that the GOE continued putting
CUD supporters and election observers in jail. Some
supporters had even had their homes burned down. Party
offices had been shut down and CUD leaders remained in
prison. There was no free press to speak of, he added. OFDM
president Bulcha Demeksa spoke passionately about arrests and
physical abuse of thousands of OFDM and UEDF/ONC supporters

ADDIS ABAB 00000169 002 OF 003


in rural western Oromiya, which he said were "just like
November riots in Addis, but on a much larger scale." Those
detained were being held without access to food or medical
attention. The GOE justified the crackdown by claiming that
those arrested were supporters of the outlawed Oromo
Liberation Front (OLF),but Bulcha argued that the OLF was
not even present. (Note: the OLF has issued at least two
calls for insurrection. End note.) Independent MP Negasso
Gidada noted that most schools in the region had been closed
for over two months, and Oromo university students were now
preparing a nation-wide hunger strike. Bulcha said that at
the PM's insistence, he had made several attempts to discuss
the violence in Oromiya with the Regional President, but to
no avail. He hailed the recent news that PM Meles had told
visiting UK aid official Hillary Benn that the GOE would
establish and independent commission to look into the
situation in Oromiya.


6. (C) Negasso argued that civil unrest in recent days
(reftel) was further evidence that the ruling coalition's
current political strategy was not working. He said that
Ethiopia would eventually see a return to armed struggle if
the ruling coalition did not engage in a broad dialogue with
other political forces. Negasso said that the level of
unrest in Oromiya demonstrated the continuing strength of the
OLF, contrary to what many had believed previously. He
recalled that the PM had promised talks with the OLF without
pre-conditions, but had not followed through. Negasso argued
that popular disappointment with the failed talks was a major
factor in Oromiya violence.

Stalled Dialogue Should be Broadened and Energized
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Negasso argued that in order to turn around the
current political dynamic, the EPRDF would have to engage in
a broad national dialogue that included all major political
forces (Note: presumably to include both the OLF and detained
CUD leaders. End note.) International community support for
such talks would also be essential. Beyene of the UEDF also
supported this recommendation. He recalled that a similar
effort had been initiated in 1995 with support from the
Carter Center, but Beyene said that the opposition was not
prepared or unified enough at that time to capitalize on the
opportunity. Now the opposition was far better prepared.
Other opposition reps present agreed on the desirability of
such an effort.


8. (C) The Charge noted that several of those present were
participating in an ongoing political dialogue with the Prime
Minister. She hoped that discussion would lead eventually to
a broader forum. Beyene said that the talks were "not
achieving much." Bulcha, another participant, remarked that
the discussions had not progressed beyond haggling over the
agenda itself despite several meetings. He remarked that the
PM appeared to be using the dialogue merely for "propaganda
purposes."

Opposition Wants More U.S. Pressure on GOE
--------------


9. (C) All opposition reps pleaded for the USG to "use your
leverage" with the GOE to insist on greater political space
for the opposition and respect for human rights. Merera
Gudina implied that the U.S. should join others in cutting
aid to the GOE, while Beyene, also of the UEDF, argued that
such pressure tactics typically only hardened the position of
the EPRDF. Merera, a professor of political science,
commented that regimes like the Mobotu government in Zaire
had destroyed their countries with the support of the USG,
whose only concern had been fight the Cold War in Africa. He
said that some would argue that the same phenomenon was now
occurring in Ethiopia, with the Global War on Terrorism
replacing the Cold War as justification. Merera charged that
what Ethiopia had was a "donors' democracy" in which the GOE
maintained only the appearance of pluralism in order to
appease the international community.


10. (C) A/S Frazer replied that it was wrong to conclude the
USG was "sustaining Meles"; the U.S. could best promote its
interests in the region not by backing a specific regime, but
rather by promoting democracy. She noted that one of the
pillars of President Bush's foreign policy was that deepening
democracy was the best way to combat terrorism. A/S Frazer
went on to say that the U.S. can't impose democracy. Even in
Iraq, the U.S. is not imposing democracy, but rather ended a

ADDIS ABAB 00000169 003 OF 003


regime and is encouraging Iraqis to build their own
democracy.

Frazer: Change Comes Mostly from Within
--------------


11. (C) While A/S Frazer acknowledged that a "donors'
democracy" was unacceptable and the external pressure was
often important in promoting change, she argued that it was
ultimately internal political processes that usually drove
progress. It was essential that opposition parties push for
reform from within the political system. External actors
could help create conditions to make such political activity
possible, she added. She congratulated Bulcha and his party
for maintaining their commitment to peaceful change even in
the face of government harassment, noting that in adhering to
non-violence he "stood with giants."

Meles Constrained by Coalition Partners?
--------------


12. (C) Frazer asked participants to what degree PM Meles was
constrained by resistance to democratization from within his
own party. Opposition representatives generally agreed that
Meles enjoyed clear supremacy within his Tigrayan People's
Liberation Front (TPLF),but both Beyene and Negasso
maintained that Meles had to deal with demands from other
actors within the ruling EPRDF coalition. Beyene pointed to
the veto that former Information Minister Bereket Simon, a
key leader in the Amhara Democratic Movement (ADM),had
exercised on a draft media law in early 2005. Others
suggested that the Oromo People's Democratic Organization
(OPDO) also demanded a free hand in dealing with independent
Oromo-based parties.

Diaspora: Restrictions Make Hard-liners More Influential
-------------- --------------


13. (C) Opposition reps told A/S Frazer that Diaspora leaders
exercised considerable influence, and had a significant local
constituency, for two main reasons: 1) because the GOE did
not provide the resources to support political parties that
were called for in the Constitution; and 2) because domestic
political organizations in Ethiopia faced harassment and
restrictions on their activities. Beyene, whose UEDF party
broke with its Diaspora allies over Beyene's decision to
enter Parliament, indicated that he had raised the issue of
government funding for opposition parties during his dialogue
with the EPRDF. Despite initial encouragement, however, the
PM had ultimately put off the request, claiming that "my
party has no taste for it right now."

Comment: Loyal Opposition Frustrated by Lack of Progress
-------------- --------------


14. (C) Opposition leaders voiced understandable frustration
that PM Meles has not moved more rapidly to reward those
political parties who "play by the rules" with more political
space and an end to harassment. A/S Frazer pressed Meles on
those points during their Jan. 20 meeting (reported septel),
and post will continue to focus on concrete progress on our
democracy promotion agenda. The next several weeks will
offer some good indicators as to whether the GOE is prepared
to deliver on key promises, including a constructive response
to an international study of Ethiopian Parliamentary
procedures. The degree of follow up on Meles' commitment to
UK official Hillary Benn to form an independent commission on
violence in Oromiya will also be an important test.
HUDDLESTON