FORMER PRESIDENT RAWLINGS PREDICTS GHANA READY TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 002578

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/26/2016
TAGS: GH PGOV PREL
SUBJECT: FORMER PRESIDENT RAWLINGS PREDICTS GHANA READY TO
EXPLODE


Classified By: PolChief Scott B. Ticknor for reasons 1.5 d and e.


1. (C) Summary: On October 12, DCM (as Charge) paid an
initial courtesy call on former President Jerry John
Rawlings, his wife and other NDC leaders at Rawlings'
residence. Rawlings and his colleagues attacked the Kufuor
government as ethnically biased, corrupt and autocratic. He
likened Ghana to a room filled with gas, ready to explode in
frustration with the light of a match. He said the 2008
election may be violent, raising the possibility the NPP may
kill him. He thought the U.S. had "wised up" to Kufuor's
problems but that hatred toward the NPP in Ghana was turning
into hatred toward the United States. This was vintage
Rawlings: booming, erratic and fiercely anti-NPP. His
portents of violence are not new, but remain disturbing
because -- as bizarre and out-of-touch as he seems at times
-- Rawlings still commands a significant following in Ghana.
End summary.

Kufuor as Brutal Dictator
--------------


2. (C) The Kufuor government is consumed with depicting
Rawlings as "a living nemesis", using "fear and terror" to
stay in power, according to former Foreign Minister Victor
Gbeho. Corruption is pervasive, justice is selective,
politics is ethnically-biased, and the GOG is blinded by a
sense of "divine right" typical of Ashantis, he said. Former
Deputy Defense Minister Tony Aidoo criticized the Kufuor
government as driven by "vindictive policies" and damaged by
the current narcotics scandal. J.J. Rawlings described the
Kufuor government as "brutal" and "dictatorial", criticizing
his colleagues for not standing up to fight the Kufuor
government.


3. (C) The NPP stole the 2004 presidential and parliamentary
elections, according to Gbeho. Similarly, the NPP will rig
the 2008 elections based on "trumped up violence", either by
spreading false rumors of a coup attempt or by fueling crime,
he said. Rawlings agreed that the NPP manipulated the 2004
results, stating "killings will take place" in 2008,
including possibly his own death, because the NPP is
desperate to stay in power.

A Room About to Explode
--------------


4. (C) According to Rawlings, Ghana is like a room filled
with gas, ready to explode, but so far no one has wanted to
throw the match. Between 2000 and 2004, he counted thirteen
occasions when he believes a "lit match" would have exploded
the country. Ghanaians across the spectrum, from the man on
the street to military officers want vengeance, he said.
Ghana is held together by a strong belief in God; otherwise,
"people would go berserk". The situation today is worse than
before his coup in 1979 he said -- "I can see in officers'
eyes they are ready to blow -- why can't you see it?"

Views of the U.S.
--------------


5. (C) While Tony Aidoo sharply criticized the U.S. for its
"honeymoon" with the NPP, Rawlings interjected that the U.S.
has "wised up to reality". President Bush was being friendly
with Kufuor to "buy time", although his remarks about good
governance in Ghana have cost the United States good will in
Ghana. Washington doesn't understand the "capacity for
trouble" in Ghana, he said. He was concerned that hatred
toward the NPP was being transferred to hatred toward Western
countries, including the United States.

Comment
--------------


6. (C) Rawlings may have some medical problems -- he
trembles slightly and loses his thoughts frequently. He
called on his colleagues for opinions and then insulted them
in front of us. His raw outbursts and scattered ideas are
typical, and as bizarre as ever. His views of Ghana on the
precipice of a violent convulsion are vintage Rawlings, but
contrast with the much more moderate, democratic views of
many others in the NDC party. Rawlings retains strong
influence within Ghana's major opposition party and as such
can still whip up his own people to cause trouble if he
chooses. The GOG is paranoid about Rawlings and at times
dismissive. In a recent meeting with PolChief, National
Security Minister Francis Poku downplayed Rawlings' bellicose
rhetoric and style, saying it was necessary to tolerate the
outbursts of the former President and not to overreact.

ACCRA 00002578 002 OF 002


While a meeting with Rawlings leaves one feeling unsettled
and somewhat blown away (we got in very few words in this two
hour meeting),we concur that it is important not to
overreact. He is open and friendly to the Embassy, if often
suspicious and critical of the United States, and we will
continue to monitor his role, and that of the NDC, in
Ghanaian politics.


BRIDGEWATER