GHANA AND THE 2008 ELECTION: PROSPECTS FOR THE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ACCRA 002270

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2016
TAGS: GH PGOV PINR
SUBJECT: GHANA AND THE 2008 ELECTION: PROSPECTS FOR THE
RULING NPP


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Classified By: PolChief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.5 d and e.


1. (C) Summary: Ghana,s 2008 presidential election is
still far away and the ruling New Patriotic Party will not
choose its presidential candidate until its scheduled
December 2007 convention. Nonetheless, there are already at
least twelve contenders for the NPP flag-bearer position,
including a number of sitting ministers and the Vice
President. This is creating friction within the party, which
will only intensify over the coming year. At this point,
Vice President Aliu Mahama and Foreign Minister Akufo-Addo
are front-runners. The party,s choice of a candidate and
its success in managing its internal tensions will be key to
its success in 2008. End Summary


2. (U) There are currently eight declared NPP aspirants:
Nana Addo Dankwa Akufo-Addo (Minister for Foreign Affairs,
Regional Cooperation and NEPAD),Dr. Kofi Konadu Apraku
(former Minister for Regional Cooperation),Kwame Addo Kufuor
(Minister of Defense),Hackman Owusu Agyeman (Minister for
Water Resources, Works and Housing),Yaw Osafo-Maafo (former
Minister for Education, Youth and Sports),Professor Frimpong
Boateng (a renowned heart surgeon),Dr. Arthur Kennedy (a
medical practitioner and a party activist based in the United
States),Effah Dartey (former Chairman of the Narcotics
Control Board and Deputy Interior Minister until he was
removed in April, 2006),and Kwabena Agyepong (former
Presidential spokesperson). Boateng, Kennedy, Dartey and
Agyepong have very little following in the party.


3. (SBU) Likely aspirants yet to formally declare their
interest include Vice President Aliu Mahama, Communication
Minister Professor Mike Ocquaye, and Minister for Trade,
Industries, Private Sector Development and Presidential
Special Initiatives (PSI) Allan Kyerematen.

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Profiles of the Main Aspirants
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4. (C) The most prominent aspirants are profiled below:

Nana Akufo-Addo: An ethnic Akyem from the Eastern Region,
Akufo-Addo is a formidable contender for the NPP slot. He is
respected for his intelligence, political family background,
and broad government experience, which includes tenures as
Minister of Justice and Minister of Foreign Affairs. He is
reportedly backed by NPP youth and Akyem businessmen. On the
other hand, he has poor organizational skills and often comes
across as arrogant and formal, which may not play well with
many party activists and Ghanaian voters. His reputation as
a womanizer and occasional marijuana smoker may also damage
him politically.

Aliu Mahama: As Vice President, he has the advantage of
national name recognition. He is generally seen as likable
and has become more visible in the past months, projecting
himself as presidential. The fact that he is Muslim on
balance will probably hurt his presidential ambitions. (Some
contacts doubt that the majority Christian population is
prepared to select a Muslim candidate, and Aliu is unpopular
even within some elements of the Muslim community.) Although
a northerner, his support in the northern heartland remains
weak because of discontent among unemployed youth, persistent
poverty in the north, and a perception that he did little to
resolve the long-standing Dagbon chieftaincy dispute. Aliu
is isolated within his party and is seen by some as unable to
control senior presidential staff. He is not identifiably
linked to any major achievement in the NPP and so far lacks
the requisite handlers and core advisors to manage a
presidential campaign. Aliu flirts with Iran and hopes
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia will help generate campaign
resources.

Dr. Kofi Konadu Apraku: A Ph.D. economist, Apraku was an
economic spokesman while in opposition but was seen as a weak
Trade and Industry Minister and later Regional Cooperation
and NEPAD Minister in Kufuor,s cabinet. Kufuor dropped him
in the April/May Cabinet reshuffle. He is an NPP loyalist
but lacks substantial support within the party.

Kwame Addo Kufuor: Defense Minister and younger brother of
President Kufuor, he has abundant resources, broad technical
experience, and the support of key Ashanti businesses. His

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sponsors hope for a coalition with a northerner or Ewe as a
running mate. However, many in the NPP are concerned that
selection of the president's brother and another Ashanti
would leave the party vulnerable to accusations of cronyism
and ethnic bias.

Yaw Osafo-Maafo: A former Minister for Education, Youth and
Sports and a former Finance Minister, he has a reputation for
leadership. He is credited with helping revive the economy
and restoring macroeconomic stability soon after succeeding
the NDC. He gained kudos when as Education and Sports
Minister the national soccer team, the Black Stars, qualified
for the World Cup. He has substantial wealth to support a
presidential campaign. Nonetheless, his involvement in
corruption and his open ambitions cost him his position in
the April 2006 cabinet re-shuffle and could hurt his race for
the party ticket. His campaign seems to have lost some steam
in recent weeks.

Hackman Owusu Agyeman: a tough party operator with a power
base in the Eastern Region, he is a founding member of the
NPP party and has held several important party positions. He
entered parliament in 1997 and served as the party,s Ranking
Member for Foreign Affairs. His biggest strength is his
extensive experience. He has been in cabinet since the
beginning of the Kufuor era, first as Foreign Minister, later
as Interior Minister, and currently as Minister of Water
Resources, Works and Housing. Working against his candidacy
are his Ashanti roots (his supporters refer to him as a
Juaben, but he is technically Ashanti) and his prickly,
sometimes belligerent and elitist personality.

Allan Kyerematen: A respected, popular technocrat and Trade
Minister, he is seen as a moderate and a rising star of the
party. He gained respect as former Ambassador to the United
States and as the originator of the President's Special
Initiatives (PSI) concept. He is gradually building a base
within the Central and Western regions and is a close ally of
party chairman, Peter Mac Manu, Education, Science and Sports
Minister, Papa Owusu Ankomah, and Attorney General Joe
Ghartey. He may have difficulty because of his Ashanti ties
(his mother is Ashanti and his father Fanti). He also lacks
electoral experience and has faced criticism for the
lackluster performance of the PSI.

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Main Factors Influencing the Decision
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5. (SBU) Personal Traits: the NPP will want a candidate
with broad popular appeal. This may favor Aliu and
Kyerematen. To a lesser extent, it may also help Akufo-Addo
because of his polished, intellectual image.


6. (C) Kufuor,s Role: President Kufuor publicly remains
impartial among the various contenders, conscious that any
favoritism at this time (especially toward an Ashanti) would
undermine party unity. Although some in the NPP resented
Kufuor's attempts to impact the selection of party chairman
last year, Kufuor will eventually have an important, low-key
influence on the party's choice of presidential candidate.
Some contacts are convinced that Kufuor privately favors Alan
Kyerematen. PNC leader Edward Mahama agrees with this,
recently telling Ambassador that the Asantahene (an important
power broker in the NPP and close to Kufuor) dislikes
Akufo-Addo because of his ties to a rival traditional leader.



7. (C) Ethnic and Regional Balance: The NPP will probably
seek a shift from its main power base in the Ashanti and
Brong Ahafo Regions to the Eastern Region, its second
traditional support base. Rivalry between Ashantis and
Akyems have undermined unity in the NPP and its predecessors,
costing them victory in the 1979 election. The party may
therefore favor Akyems to counterbalance its current Ashanti
leanings. This may benefit Nana Akufo Addo, Yaw Osafo Maafo
and Hackman Owusu Agyeman ) all from the Eastern Region (the
first two are Akyems). Some observers, however, believe that
the NPP will focus on appealing to the key swing Central,
Greater Accra and Western regions. This may favor Kyerematen
or a possible dark horse of the likes of Minister of
Education Papa Owusu-Ankomah (who reportedly is exploring a
candidacy).


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Comment
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8. (SBU) The NPP,s success in influencing upcoming
District Assembly elections and in winning parliamentary
by-elections will also impact its decision about a
presidential candidate. NPP leaders will also weigh the
nature of the opposition (reported septel) and the national
mood. The party,s ultimate electoral success will depend on
many factors, including the GOG,s ability to translate
economic success into poverty reduction and to manage
perceptions of growing corruption.


9. (C) We can expect heightened friction within the NPP and
the government over the coming year, with the likelihood that
some NPP candidates will eventually break from the party to
form their own parties, join the nascent Democratic Freedom
Party, or run as independents. How this plays out will be a
major factor in the NDC,s prospects. As one media contact,
told PolChief, the NDC,s chances in 2008 depend to a
significant extent on &the level of NPP self-destruction8.
BRIDGEWATER