GHANA AND THE 2008 ELECTION: THE OPPOSITION NDC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ACCRA 002269

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2016
TAGS: GH PGOV PINR
SUBJECT: GHANA AND THE 2008 ELECTION: THE OPPOSITION NDC

REF: ACCRA 2250

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Classified By: PolChief Scott Ticknor for reasons 1.5 d and e.


1. (C) Summary: Ghana's main opposition National
Democratic Congress (NDC) party plans to choose its
presidential candidate for the 2008 election by January 2007,
probably in the scheduled December party congress. The
front-runner is two-time candidate John Atta Mills. Four
others are also in the running: Edward Annan (a private
business executive),Ekwow Spio-Garbrah (Director General of
the Commonwealth Telecommunication Organization),Alban
Bagbin (Minority Leader in Parliament) and Mahama Iddrisu (a
former Defense Minister and advisor on Governmental Affairs).
The party suffers from financial difficulties and
significant internal friction, including the loss of some key
leaders to the new, spin-off Democratic Freedom Party. Once
a candidate is selected, the party campaign will likely
highlight alleged governance and economic failings of the
ruling NPP party. End summary.

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The Aspirants
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2. (C) To date, the five NDC aspirants are:

Professor John Evans Atta Mills: Former Vice President and
the party,s 2000 and 2004 candidate, Mills will give the
contest his third shot. Mills won 44.32% of the popular votes
in the December 2004 presidential elections. He combines
credibility, easy manners, an engaging (though not
particularly charismatic) personality and tested leadership
skills. Mills has strong national name recognition and
appeals to many parts of the party.

Edward (&Eddie8) Annan: Annan is a private business
executive whose interest in the presidency surprised many in
the NDC. The anti-Rawlings media continues to speculate that
he is the choice of Mrs. Rawlings. Annan has been a major
fund-raiser for Mills and the NDC and has the tendency to
play to the base. He has been repeatedly investigated for
business malpractice and has a rocky relationship with the
media, which has heavily criticized him over the past five
years.

Alhaji Mahama Iddrisu: An Ahmaddi Muslim and a former Defense
Minister and advisor on governmental affairs, Iddrisu
continues to show interest for the top spot in the NDC. He is
widely popular in the party (especially in the north). He
has not been active in party politics since the NDC congress
in 2002 and is seen as more conservative than Mills and
other aspirants. As an Ahmaddi Muslim, some in the party are
concerned that he may not appeal to some Christians, as well
as Ahlussuna and Tijanniya Muslims outside the NDC.

Alban Bagbin: Minority Leader in Parliament, Bagbin is a
star from the most impoverished region in Ghana, Upper West.
His leadership of the minority caucus in Parliament has won
him considerable admiration within and outside the NDC. He is
a Catholic but a high-profile extra-marital affair with his
sister-in-law will likely hurt him significantly in his
candidacy for the NDC ticket. Bagbin has been very low
profile for several months.

Ekwow Spio-Garbrah: Spio-Garbrah was a loyal supporter of
Mills in the 2000 and 2004 races and has been very involved
in the NDC. He served as Minister of Education and
Ambassador to the United States under former President
Rawlings. Nonetheless, he appears to have offended some
section of the party, including his peers. Fellow party
supporters cringed when Spio-Garbrah recently claimed that
the NDC lost the 2004 election because of the quality of its
leadership. Some NDC activists also accuse him of abandoning
the party to take up his current appointment as CEO of the
U.K.-based Commonwealth Telecommunications Organization.

Challenges for the NDC
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3. (C) The party leadership seems committed not to
interfere in the smooth selection of a credible standard
bearer. The ND,s main challenges at this point are:

Internal Dvisions: Intra-party competition is stronger than

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in earlier election periods, and other candidates may still
emerge. The NDC had only two presidential contenders in the
run-up to the 2004 election and one (Rawlings) in the 1992
and 1996 elections. The current divisions stem in part from
concerns about Mills, electability, since he has lost two
successive presidential bids.

The Rawlings Factor: A wildcard is the role of former
President Rawlings. He played a significant, visible role in
the NDC,s 2004 campaign, as well as in the 2005 party
congress. He is a polarizing and unpredictable figure.
While still hugely popular among some NDC loyalists, Rawlings
scares away other would-be supporters and could be a net
liability. Aspirants to the presidency will try to gain his
support while distancing themselves from being seen as a
&Rawlings man8. Rawlings, role has already split the
party, leading to the formation of the Democratic Freedom
Party (DFP).

The DFP: Former NDC Chairman Dr. Obed Asamoah, a longtime
nemesis of J.J. Rawlings, recently broke from the NDC to form
a new party, the DFP (reftel). Asamoah has already succeeded
in wooing several prominent, disaffected NDC officials into
his new party and is expected to increase political poaching
efforts in the coming year, including from the NPP. He may
also try to convince some NDC MPs likely to lose at the
primaries to run as independent candidates, further
undermining the NDC. Some anti-NDC media speculate that 22
NDC Members of Parliament may soon resign from the party or
cross the floor of Parliament to join the DFP.

Finances: The NDC has some financial problems which, when
combined with poor media skills, have so far resulted in
lackluster campaigns by NDC aspirants. The party will have
to convince potential financial backers that it can win the
Castle, despite past losses and lingering concerns among many
in the public about a return to NDC days.

Comment
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4. (C) Although the 2008 election is still far away,
electoral politics is already in the air. It is encouraging
to see new NDC leaders emerge and so far Rawlings, role has
been constructively low-key. NDC contacts are quick to point
out that they won 44% of the popular vote in 2004, retain a
base in large parts of the country, and won a string of
recent by-elections, even increasing their margins. They
remain a formidable force in a race which once again will be
essentially two-sided (most smaller opposition parties are
bit players, while the long-discussed merger of the Nkhurmist
CPP and PNC parties appears unlikely).


5. (C) The NDC will focus more than ever on issues and the
NPP,s performance in the run-up to the 2008 campaign. These
will include corruption, narcotics scandals, and other
governance issues. The NDC would vigorously oppose
(possibly with violence) any NPP effort to implement the
controversial Representation of the People Amendment (ROPA)
bill, giving expatriate Ghanaians the right to vote.
However, the NDC's main focus will likely be on
bread-and-butter performance issues like unmet salary
demands, petroleum price hikes, and the rising cost of
living. It promises to be an interesting political year in
Ghana.






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