NATIONAL ASSEMBLY MEMBERS SEEK SUPPORT AFTER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000944

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI THIRDTERM
SUBJECT: NATIONAL ASSEMBLY MEMBERS SEEK SUPPORT AFTER
CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IS DEFEATED


Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reason 1.4 (b)
and (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: A group of National Assembly members
opposed to a third term for President Obasanjo argued that
the constitutional review process now underway has been
characterized by manipulation and irregularities but
predicted efforts to amend the constitution would ultimately
fail. They worried that President Obasanjo would attempt to
hang on in spite of the defeat and said that international
support would be critical to ensure democratic elections in

2007. The group visited the U.S. Embassy as part of its
outreach efforts to visit the G-8 embassies in Abuja as well
as influence local opinion through the coverage of their
efforts. As other Embassy interlocutors claim, this group
remains fairly confident that the Constitution cannot be
amended through legal measures but worry about the potential
for unrest in the aftermath. END SUMMARY.


2. (U) A group of National Assembly members opposed to a
third term for President Obasanjo met on April 24 with
PolCouns at the request of the group. The members, part of
the "2007 Movement," argued that the constitutional review
process has been characterized by manipulation and
irregularities. They listed their reasons for opposing a
third term for President Obasanjo, including their concern
about rising instability, deteriorating living conditions for
the average Nigerian and manipulation of government's levers
by "Obasanjo and his cronies." The Members represented at
least three of Nigeria's political zones (Southwest,
Southeast and Northwest) and the four largest political
parties (AD, APGA, PDP, ANPP). In attendance were: Senators
Saidu Dansadau, Olorunnibe Mamora, Yari Gandi and
Representatives Aminu Tambuwal, Francis Amadiegwu, Cyril
Maduabum, Uche Onyeagocha and Femi Gbajabiamila.


3. (C) The Assembly members predicted that efforts to
lengthen the tenure of President Obasanjo will ultimately be
defeated despite the manipulation of the process. "The
entire nation is against it," one of the representatives from
Lagos claimed. They claimed that 46 Senators opposed the
amendments (with 38 needed to block the bills) and that 153
representatives also opposed the term extension efforts (with
120 needed to block the measure). The group requested USG
understanding and support in the period following the vote on
constitutional change, becasue, they predicted, the Obasanjo
government will be unwilling to accept defeat.


4. (C) Senator Dansadu said that after the vote the
political environment would heat up because President
Obasanjo would employ alternate strategies to extend his stay
in office. One strategy, he said, included fomenting more
instability and declaring a state of emergency to extend his
term. Another potential strategy could be the continued
withholding of funds to the Independent Nigerian Election
Commission (INEC),thereby preventing the logistical
preparation for free and fair elections. Already evident, he
said, is a clampdown on political opposition and intimidation
of members opposed to his extension. He said that members of
the National Assembly had been promised a "free ticket" for
re-election if they support the third term. Another member
pointed out that this implies a less-than free-and-fair
election in 2007.


5. (C) The group argued that any blame for political
shortcomings should rest squarely on the President. "Part of
effective leadership requires an orderly succession plan,"
Dansadau said. Senator Gandi pointed out as well that the
reforms now underway would continue and could be spearheaded
by a similarly young and talented group of technocrats.
"These reforms do not depend on one person," said Senator
Gandi.


6. (U) Responding to a question, PolCouns explained that the
USG supported the concept of executive term limits in the
interest of institutionalizing democracy and opening
political space. He pointed out that this allows for new
leaders to be groomed, it supports the rule of law, and that
a regular turnover of power ingrains and institutionalizes a
democratic process. Press coverage of the visit the
following day mistakenly attributed the comments to the
Ambassador (who was in Washington at the time) and said that
the Ambasador and the USG had called for "regime change."
Otherwise, the event was covered widely but not prominently.


8. (C) COMMENT: The visit by the group of anti-third term
National Assembly members was part of an outreach and
advocacy campaign but was also aimed at confirming the USG
position on the third term. The anti-third term elements in
the National Assembly are increasingly confident that they
have the numbers needed to block third term legislation in
both the House and the Senate. Like many Nigerians, though,
these senior politicians were seeking diplomatic support
should the third term measure fail since they expect turmoil
to increase in the absence of a clear alternative course of
action from the President. And like many other Nigerians,
they are concerned that that turmoil could provide an excuse
to delay elections or worse.
FUREY