ATIKU TO SEEK AC NOMINATION: WORRIED ABOUT REACTION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003247

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ATIKU TO SEEK AC NOMINATION: WORRIED ABOUT REACTION

REF: ABUJA 3217

ABUJA 00003247 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Thomas Furey for reasons 1.4 (b) and (
d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. The Vice President will actively seek the
nomination of the Action Congress (AC) on December 20 in
Lagos, according to one of his closest advisers. But Atiku is
also deeply concerned that President Obasanjo will react
swiftly by declaring his seat vacant and replacing him with
current PDP presidential candidate Umaru Yar'Adua. Atiku has
been emboldened by the findings of a team of his lawyers, who
unanimously agree the constitution does not provide a change
in parties as grounds for removing the vice president.
Following Atiku's AC nomination, a joint committee of the AC
and ANPP will begin deliberations to agree on a consensus
candidate to oppose PDP's Yar'Adua. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) In a conversation on December 19 with Poloff in
Abuja before departing on the last flight to Lagos for the AC
convention, vice-presidential advisor, and Chairman of the
House Foreign Relations Committee, Usman Bugaje said that
the political contest between the Vice President and the
President had reached "scary" dimensions. With less than 24
hours to go before the AC convention Atiku was deeply
concerned about the reaction of President Obasanjo who has
signaled that his goal is to permanently sideline the
vice-president.


3. (C) In preparation for leaving the party, Bugaje said,
the VP had sought out the legal opinion of more than a dozen
leading lawyers in Nigeria about whether switching parties
was a legal justification for declaring his seat vacant.
Bugaje said that the lawyers unanimously agreed that the law
does not support this view. The lawyers made a variety of
arguments about what the law said, but pointed out that the
constitution stipulated that a vacancy as a result of party
change is applicable to National Assembly and State House
Assembly members, but not the president, vice-president,
deputy governors or governors. Bugaje said this explained why
the current governors of Jigawa and Sokoto states, who had
both switched parties, had not had their seats declared
vacant. The unanimous reading of the law by a diverse group
of lawyers has emboldened the VP to proceed and seek the
nomination, Bugaje said.


4. (C) Despite the VP's public resolve, privately, Bugaje
said, Atiku was concerned with the president's reaction.
Bugaje said that the VP's camp had heard that the President
Obasanjo planned to declare the VP seat vacant and replace
him with Yar'Adua immediately at the end of the convention.
The VP had beefed up his personal security and also had his
legal team on stand-by. Bugaje said the stakes were raised
this week when the VP accused the President of misusing the
Petroleum Technology Development Fund (PTDF). The allegations
of corruption made headlines and had further raised tensions,
Bugaje said. As a result, Bugaje said, the VP remained
concerned that the president might seek to have him arrested
after the convention.


5. (C) In making the case for a strong Atiku candidacy,
Bugaje said that the VP was a more attractive candidate than
all the other opposition contenders. He said that Buhari's
record as a former president, and his military background
worked against him. Atiku, he said, also had strong support
in southern Nigeria, something Buhari lacked. This would be
Atiku's bargaining position after he won the AC nomination
and discussion aimed at naming a consensus opposition
candidate commenced between the AC and the All Nigerian
People's Party (ANPP) (Reftel).


6. (C) Bugaje said that an 18-member committee composed of
nine members from each party would hammer out a consensus
candidate. The committee would weigh the electoral strength
of each candidate and seek to position itself to contest the
north-south ticket of the PDP. Consensus must be reached
within 30 days to allow each party the opportunity to
substitute names for the presidential nomination. While
Bugaje made a strong case for the vice-president being the
ultimate consensus candidate, he said that the ultimate
objective, is to defeat PDP at the polls in April 2007.

7 (C) Comment: The AC convention is the point of no return
for Vice President Atiku. While his advisors say he remains

ABUJA 00003247 002.2 OF 002


resolved in the face of rumors about his seat being declared
vacant and the subsequent potential for his arrest and
prosecution, he is clearly concerned. His strategy on all
fronts, political and public relations, (as is the case with
many Nigerian politicians) is that the best defense is a good
offense. The consequences of that strategy, both for Atiku
and for Nigeria, are likely to become apparent soon after the
conclusion of the AC convention.
FUREY