ANPP PRIMARY: BUHARI WINS BY CONSENSUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 003230

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/19/2016
TAGS: KDEM PGOV ELECTIONS NI
SUBJECT: ANPP PRIMARY: BUHARI WINS BY CONSENSUS

REF: A. ABUJA 3227


B. ABUJA 3216

C. ABUJA 3186

D. ABUJA 3182

Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES THOMAS FUREY FOR REASONS 1.4 B & D


1. (C) SUMMARY: At the December 18 All Nigeria Peoples'
Party (ANPP) Convention, General Muhammadu Buhari secured the
Presidential nomination after all other candidates
successively conceded. Throngs of Buhari supporters
surrounded Eagle Square and cheered on as his motorcade
approached, highlighting his immense, unmatched popularity.
END SUMMARY.


2. (C) At the December 18 All Nigeria Peoples' Party (ANPP)
Convention, General Muhammadu Buhari secured the Presidential
nomination following two days of intense negotiations among
the candidates. The Northern Elders Forum and various other
parties exerted pressure on the candidates to ensure that the
ANPP nominated its strongest candidate to challenge the PDP's
nominee, Umaru Yar'Adua.


3. (C) Buhari arrived escorted by more than one thousand of
his supporters on the streets surrounding Eagle Square. His
reception among the delegates was also impressive as the
delegates cheered on his motorcade circuit of the venue. As
the time approached for voting, the other candidates,
one-by-one, conceded to Buhari. After front-runner Zamfara
State Governor Alhaji Sani Ahmed Yerima's announcement to
step down, the audience erupted in pandemonium, taking more
than 15 minutes to restore calm. Then, defunct National
Republican Convention (NRC) candidate, Uthman Bashir Tofa,
conceded followed by Former Minister of Education Mallam
Dauda Birma, Chief Harry Akande, and Borno Governor Madu Ali
Sharif.


4. (C) Yobe Governor Bukar Abba Ibrahim told the ANPP
executive that he was frightened to concede. "Obasanjo told
me he would send the EFCC (the corruption police) after me if
I step down," he pleaded. Other Northern politicians pointed
out to him that if he refused to budge, he faced the
potentially more dangerous "wrath of his own people." The
lone holdout was Pere Ajuwa, who finally, just as voting was
to commence, conceded.


5. (U) In his brief acceptance speech, Buhari welcomed
alliances with other political parties, underscored the need
for "free and fair elections" in 2007, and chided INEC for
pushing for electronic voter registration machines "when
there is no electricity in the country". Unlike the December
16-17 PDP Convention, which closed on a disappointed note the
morning after it began, the ANPP Convention concluded
jubilantly fewer than six hours after it commenced.


6. (C) COMMENT: General Buhari's selection by consensus as
the ANPP candidate clearly shows his popularity and Party
confidence in his capacity to galvanize the ANPP in hopes of
countering the PDP. However, the outcome was anything but
certain since Yerima was looking after the interests of Vice
President Atiku Abubakar and Ibrahim was acting out the
instructions of President Obasanjo.


7. (C) COMMENT, CONT'D: Just as many believe he did in
2003, Buhari can likely muster the votes to win in 2007 -
especially against the obscure Yar'Adua. While we await
Buhari's selection of a running mate, it is clear that he
needs a strong, visible, and widely acceptable candidate from
the southern part of the country to ensure enough support not
only to win the election, but also to defend the ballots come
election day. END COMMENT.
FUREY