Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ABUJA3227
2006-12-18 12:46:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:
PDP PRIMARY: YAR'ADUA / JONATHAN TICKET
how-toVZCZCXRO7683 PP RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN DE RUEHUJA #3227 3521246 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 181246Z DEC 06 FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8096 INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 0021 RUEHCD/AMCONSUL CIUDAD JUAREZ 0025 RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 5761 RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 003227
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: PDP PRIMARY: YAR'ADUA / JONATHAN TICKET
REF: A. ABUJA 3216
B. ABUJA 3186
C. ABUJA 3182
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Thomas Furey for Reasons 1.4 (b and d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 003227
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: PDP PRIMARY: YAR'ADUA / JONATHAN TICKET
REF: A. ABUJA 3216
B. ABUJA 3186
C. ABUJA 3182
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Thomas Furey for Reasons 1.4 (b and d)
1. (C) SUMMARY. The December 17 announcement of the
landslide victory of Obasanjo's pick as presidential
candidate, Umaru Yar'Adua, in the PDP convention seemed
inevitable; however, Yar'Adua's announcement on December 18
of Bayelsa Governor Goodluck Jonathan, who has never declared
aspirations to the villa, as his running mate was generally
unexpected. In his acceptance speech, Yar'Adua pledged to
continue the economic reform program begun by Obasanjo,
stressing the need to continue to fight corruption and demand
good governance. Convention delegates also passed amendments
to the PDP Convention which require the Chairman to be a
formerly elected president from the PDP Party -- thereby
guaranteeing the chairmanship to Obasanjo. END SUMMARY.
2. (C) The December 16 PDP convention was quiet -- delegates
seemed resolved from the outset to the inevitability of
Yar'Adua's nomination. As of the start of the convention,
the field of 19 candidates who had successfully passed the
party's screening exercise and remained in the race as of
December 15 (Ref. A) had narrowed to only twelve candidates.
Speculation was circulating during the convention that Rivers
Governor Peter Odili and Cross Rivers Governor Donald Duke
may have withdrawn their candidacy in hopes of being selected
as the vice presidential running mate.
3. (C) Yar'Adua's inevitable selection was obvious upon
entering the Eagle Square venue. Yar'Adua's campaign posters
along the inside of the front fence and mini blimps around
the perimeter were the only campaign materials within the
arena which were visible to all. Pol Counselor found a
couple of other posters out of line-of-sight of the crowds
along the side of the bleachers. Mrs. Sarah Jibril asked
that each of the candidates be allowed to address the
delegates before the elections, but was told to sit down and
be quiet. Seemingly resolved to the outcome, the
overwhelming majority of delegates left, some before voting
and most just after, despite the need for a run-off vote if
no candidate received more than fifty percent of the delegate
votes.
43. (U) Final vote counts were as follows: Yar'Adua - 3,024,
Rochas - 372, Gusau - 271, Gana - 165, Marwa - 127, Ukiwe -
17, Akhigbe - 13, Horsefall - 8, Jibril - 4, Sawa - 3,
Uwechue - 3, and Kontagora - 0. Ninety-four votes were
invalid.
5. (C) Prior to the election of a candidate, delegates voted
to adopt amendments to the party constitution which would
require the party be chaired by an elected former president
originating within the party (successfully guaranteeing the
chairmanship to Obasanjo as the only individual fitting that
description). The vote was taken by voice vote, with the
unenthusiastic and hardly resounding "aye" vote announced as
successful without ever asking for a "nay" vote.
6. (C) COMMENT: While the selection of Yar'Adua was a
foregone conclusion, the Yar'Adua/Jonathan ticket presents
unique difficulties for the PDP. Yar'Adua has almost no
support base throughout the north and rumors of his history
of mental health will alienate most Nigerians. While he
shares a name with his famous elder brother, that will not
entice many Northerners to back him. As well, his political
history has been at odds with that of his brother and Vice
President Atiku Abubakar and he is unlikely to pick up
significant support among Atiku's People's Democratic
Movement (PDM) political machine (Ref. C). Jonathan brings
his own difficulties to the table. While he has some respect
among some Ijaws, the support of largely discredited Ijaw
elders such as E.K. Clark will not go far in bringing the
ongoing youth violence under control or ensuring support of
the militant activists either in his own state or throughout
the region. Post will relay further analysis of the ticket
and biographical information septel. END COMMENT.
FUREY
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: PDP PRIMARY: YAR'ADUA / JONATHAN TICKET
REF: A. ABUJA 3216
B. ABUJA 3186
C. ABUJA 3182
Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Thomas Furey for Reasons 1.4 (b and d)
1. (C) SUMMARY. The December 17 announcement of the
landslide victory of Obasanjo's pick as presidential
candidate, Umaru Yar'Adua, in the PDP convention seemed
inevitable; however, Yar'Adua's announcement on December 18
of Bayelsa Governor Goodluck Jonathan, who has never declared
aspirations to the villa, as his running mate was generally
unexpected. In his acceptance speech, Yar'Adua pledged to
continue the economic reform program begun by Obasanjo,
stressing the need to continue to fight corruption and demand
good governance. Convention delegates also passed amendments
to the PDP Convention which require the Chairman to be a
formerly elected president from the PDP Party -- thereby
guaranteeing the chairmanship to Obasanjo. END SUMMARY.
2. (C) The December 16 PDP convention was quiet -- delegates
seemed resolved from the outset to the inevitability of
Yar'Adua's nomination. As of the start of the convention,
the field of 19 candidates who had successfully passed the
party's screening exercise and remained in the race as of
December 15 (Ref. A) had narrowed to only twelve candidates.
Speculation was circulating during the convention that Rivers
Governor Peter Odili and Cross Rivers Governor Donald Duke
may have withdrawn their candidacy in hopes of being selected
as the vice presidential running mate.
3. (C) Yar'Adua's inevitable selection was obvious upon
entering the Eagle Square venue. Yar'Adua's campaign posters
along the inside of the front fence and mini blimps around
the perimeter were the only campaign materials within the
arena which were visible to all. Pol Counselor found a
couple of other posters out of line-of-sight of the crowds
along the side of the bleachers. Mrs. Sarah Jibril asked
that each of the candidates be allowed to address the
delegates before the elections, but was told to sit down and
be quiet. Seemingly resolved to the outcome, the
overwhelming majority of delegates left, some before voting
and most just after, despite the need for a run-off vote if
no candidate received more than fifty percent of the delegate
votes.
43. (U) Final vote counts were as follows: Yar'Adua - 3,024,
Rochas - 372, Gusau - 271, Gana - 165, Marwa - 127, Ukiwe -
17, Akhigbe - 13, Horsefall - 8, Jibril - 4, Sawa - 3,
Uwechue - 3, and Kontagora - 0. Ninety-four votes were
invalid.
5. (C) Prior to the election of a candidate, delegates voted
to adopt amendments to the party constitution which would
require the party be chaired by an elected former president
originating within the party (successfully guaranteeing the
chairmanship to Obasanjo as the only individual fitting that
description). The vote was taken by voice vote, with the
unenthusiastic and hardly resounding "aye" vote announced as
successful without ever asking for a "nay" vote.
6. (C) COMMENT: While the selection of Yar'Adua was a
foregone conclusion, the Yar'Adua/Jonathan ticket presents
unique difficulties for the PDP. Yar'Adua has almost no
support base throughout the north and rumors of his history
of mental health will alienate most Nigerians. While he
shares a name with his famous elder brother, that will not
entice many Northerners to back him. As well, his political
history has been at odds with that of his brother and Vice
President Atiku Abubakar and he is unlikely to pick up
significant support among Atiku's People's Democratic
Movement (PDM) political machine (Ref. C). Jonathan brings
his own difficulties to the table. While he has some respect
among some Ijaws, the support of largely discredited Ijaw
elders such as E.K. Clark will not go far in bringing the
ongoing youth violence under control or ensuring support of
the militant activists either in his own state or throughout
the region. Post will relay further analysis of the ticket
and biographical information septel. END COMMENT.
FUREY