Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ABUJA3216
2006-12-15 11:56:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:
NIGERIA ELECTIONS SNAPSHOTS #3
how-toVZCZCXRO6283 PP RUEHBZ RUEHDU RUEHGI RUEHJO RUEHMA RUEHMR RUEHPA RUEHRN DE RUEHUJA #3216/01 3491156 ZNR UUUUU ZZH P 151156Z DEC 06 FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 8082 INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE RUEHWR/AMEMBASSY WARSAW 0016 RUEHCD/AMCONSUL CIUDAD JUAREZ 0020 RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 5751 RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003216
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/W SILSKI AND SANNEH, INR/AA NSC FOR CHUDSON
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: NIGERIA ELECTIONS SNAPSHOTS #3
REF: A. ABUJA 3061
B. ABUJA 2917
ABUJA 00003216 001.2 OF 002
THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET
DISTRIBUTION.
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003216
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/W SILSKI AND SANNEH, INR/AA NSC FOR CHUDSON
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: NIGERIA ELECTIONS SNAPSHOTS #3
REF: A. ABUJA 3061
B. ABUJA 2917
ABUJA 00003216 001.2 OF 002
THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET
DISTRIBUTION.
1. (SBU) This cable is the third in a series of elections
snapshots designed to provide a sense of the local
environment in the run up to the elections planned for 2007.
In-depth information will continue to be reported in septels,
with the snapshot format being used to convey interesting and
pertinent anecdotes or facts. Post welcomes any comments or
suggestions.
--------------
CONVENTIONS AND CANDIDATES
--------------
2. (SBU) Former Head of State Major-General Muhammadu Buhari
launched his presidential campaign on December 8. Buhari is
drawing on his previous time in office, billing himself as a
"clean" government candidate. Most of those attending his
campaign launch were Muslims from northern Nigeria, although
there was a contingent from Bayelsa and Rivers states, and
there was a significant presence of police and State Security
Service (SSS) agents. Supporters complained that problems
with permits forced the venue to a smaller facility than
originally planned and busloads of supporters were prevented
from entering Abuja to attend the launch.
3. (SBU) The ANPP, a possible platform for General Buhari,
has had difficulty setting a venue for it's nominating
convention. The convention was originally scheduled for
December 16-17 in Eagle Square, but ANPP was forced to change
because of the December 16 PDP convention at the same
location. Over the span of a few days, the convention moved
to Jos, to Kano, then back to Eagle Square but on December
18-19. A well placed observer tells us the move from Kano
was precipitated by a call from President Obasanjo to the
governor of Kano State to say he "could not guarantee the
security" of the convention in Kano.
4. (SBU) A faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance
(APGA) held its convention in Enugu on December 2 and
selected Chief Odimegwu Ojukwu as its Presidential candidate.
At present, the APGA has two distinct factions, the first
being the "official" faction recognized by INEC and led by
Chief Umeh, a loyalist to Ojukwu, and the second led by
Chekwas Okorie, the first chairman of APGA, who is believed
to currently be at loggerheads with both President Obasanjo
and Ojukwu. While the first faction selected Chief Ojukwu as
it's candidate, members of the second faction are reportedly
seeking an alliance with other parties and will likely back
either Buhari or Vice President Atiku. (NOTE: In the 2003
elections, the APGA became the fourth party in Nigeria --
behind the PDP, ANPP, and AD. Although APGA was unable to
produce a governor at in the 2003 elections, it finally won
Anambra State in March 2006.) (See also Lagos Septel.)
5. (SBU) One day ahead of the December 16 PDP Convention,
"This Day" newspaper reports Katsina State Governor Umar
Yar'Adua and former National Security Advisor General Aliyu
Gusau are the strongest contenders for the PDP nomination,
calling Yar'Adua the "clear frontrunner." The PDP Screening
Committee announced on December 14 that it has cleared the
following candidates for the PDP Convention: Yar'Adua, Gusau,
former Chief of Staff Mike Akhigbe, Mrs. Sarah Jibril,
Professor Jerry Gana, Ambassador Ralph Uweche, Senator A.P.
Sawa, Major General Mamman Kotangora, Chief A.K. Horsefall,
Owelle Rochas Okorocha, Brigadere-General Buba Marwa,
Governor Sam Egwu, Governor Achike Udenwa, Governor Adamu
Muazu, Governor Donald Duke, Governor Victor Attah, Governor
Peter Odili, Governor Adamu Abdullahi, and Commodore Ebitu
Ukiwe.
--------------
PARTY NEWS
--------------
6. (SBU) The People's Salvation Party (PSP) elected Dr.
Junnaidu Mohammed, a Russian trained neuroseurgeon and
Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee in the Second
Republic, as party chairman. PSP is seen as an alternative
platform for General Buhari in the event that things do not
ABUJA 00003216 002.2 OF 002
work out with the ANPP. (NOTE: Given Dr. Junnaidu's
experience, it is generally expected that he will be a strong
organizer of the progressive community. The party is mostly
comprised of northern radicals and a few conservatives who
have been marginalized by the present administration.)
7. (SBU) The Action Congress (AC) has emerged as an
amalgamation of splinter groups from the AD, PDP, and other
parties, with Atiku as it's likely presidential candidate.
Its recent party congress selected a former Governor, Bisi
Akande, as its chairman and former Steel Minister under
Abacha Bashiru Dalhatu as its National Secretary. (NOTE: The
driving forces behind the AC are Vice President Atiku
Abubakar, former North-Central PDP stalwarts such as Chief
Solomon Lar and Audu Ogbeh, and South-West big men such as
Governor Tinubu of Lagos State. Also involved in the AC are
former Alliance for Democracy (AD) governors of Oyo, Ogun,
Ondo, and Osun states who feel betrayed over a deal with
Obasanjo in which AD governors reportedly agreed to support
Obasanjo's presidency in 2003 in return for assurance they
would retain their gubernatorial posts.)
--------------
STATE POLITICS
--------------
8. (SBU) For the third time in three weeks, the Secretariat
of the Delta State PDP was hit by a bomb blast in the early
morning hours of December 12. Two police officers were
critically injured and there was reportedly significant fire
damage to the complex before the blaze was brought under
control. Several other explosions have occurred in the state
as well.
--------------
VOTER REGISTRATION
--------------
9. (SBU) The December 14 deadline for completion of the
voter registration has officially passed. INEC has announced
plans to allow voters holding a registration card from the
2003 elections to "revalidate" their ergistration. This
revalidation exercise is expected to continue until late
January, allowing a couple of weeks for compilation of the
lists before mandated publication on February 14. The
process of "revalidation" of 2003 voter registration cards
remains unclear and no information has been provided to the
public.
10. (SBU) This Day reported on December 13 that 10 million
of 58 million eligible voters have been registered under the
new electronic registration system; however, most post
contacts believe this number is inflated.
11. (SBU) On December 14, the House of Representatives
passed amendments to the 2006 Electoral Law. Specifically,
the amendments extend the period for conducting voter
registration to 45 days prior to the general election and
explicitly outlaw the use of direct data capture machine
registration, mandating instead that INEC begin the process
of registration via manual registration. The Bill, which
passed quicky after a vote to suspend requirements for a
first and second reading, was passed to the Senate for
consideration.
CAMPBELL
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR AF/W SILSKI AND SANNEH, INR/AA NSC FOR CHUDSON
E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: NIGERIA ELECTIONS SNAPSHOTS #3
REF: A. ABUJA 3061
B. ABUJA 2917
ABUJA 00003216 001.2 OF 002
THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET
DISTRIBUTION.
1. (SBU) This cable is the third in a series of elections
snapshots designed to provide a sense of the local
environment in the run up to the elections planned for 2007.
In-depth information will continue to be reported in septels,
with the snapshot format being used to convey interesting and
pertinent anecdotes or facts. Post welcomes any comments or
suggestions.
--------------
CONVENTIONS AND CANDIDATES
--------------
2. (SBU) Former Head of State Major-General Muhammadu Buhari
launched his presidential campaign on December 8. Buhari is
drawing on his previous time in office, billing himself as a
"clean" government candidate. Most of those attending his
campaign launch were Muslims from northern Nigeria, although
there was a contingent from Bayelsa and Rivers states, and
there was a significant presence of police and State Security
Service (SSS) agents. Supporters complained that problems
with permits forced the venue to a smaller facility than
originally planned and busloads of supporters were prevented
from entering Abuja to attend the launch.
3. (SBU) The ANPP, a possible platform for General Buhari,
has had difficulty setting a venue for it's nominating
convention. The convention was originally scheduled for
December 16-17 in Eagle Square, but ANPP was forced to change
because of the December 16 PDP convention at the same
location. Over the span of a few days, the convention moved
to Jos, to Kano, then back to Eagle Square but on December
18-19. A well placed observer tells us the move from Kano
was precipitated by a call from President Obasanjo to the
governor of Kano State to say he "could not guarantee the
security" of the convention in Kano.
4. (SBU) A faction of the All Progressives Grand Alliance
(APGA) held its convention in Enugu on December 2 and
selected Chief Odimegwu Ojukwu as its Presidential candidate.
At present, the APGA has two distinct factions, the first
being the "official" faction recognized by INEC and led by
Chief Umeh, a loyalist to Ojukwu, and the second led by
Chekwas Okorie, the first chairman of APGA, who is believed
to currently be at loggerheads with both President Obasanjo
and Ojukwu. While the first faction selected Chief Ojukwu as
it's candidate, members of the second faction are reportedly
seeking an alliance with other parties and will likely back
either Buhari or Vice President Atiku. (NOTE: In the 2003
elections, the APGA became the fourth party in Nigeria --
behind the PDP, ANPP, and AD. Although APGA was unable to
produce a governor at in the 2003 elections, it finally won
Anambra State in March 2006.) (See also Lagos Septel.)
5. (SBU) One day ahead of the December 16 PDP Convention,
"This Day" newspaper reports Katsina State Governor Umar
Yar'Adua and former National Security Advisor General Aliyu
Gusau are the strongest contenders for the PDP nomination,
calling Yar'Adua the "clear frontrunner." The PDP Screening
Committee announced on December 14 that it has cleared the
following candidates for the PDP Convention: Yar'Adua, Gusau,
former Chief of Staff Mike Akhigbe, Mrs. Sarah Jibril,
Professor Jerry Gana, Ambassador Ralph Uweche, Senator A.P.
Sawa, Major General Mamman Kotangora, Chief A.K. Horsefall,
Owelle Rochas Okorocha, Brigadere-General Buba Marwa,
Governor Sam Egwu, Governor Achike Udenwa, Governor Adamu
Muazu, Governor Donald Duke, Governor Victor Attah, Governor
Peter Odili, Governor Adamu Abdullahi, and Commodore Ebitu
Ukiwe.
--------------
PARTY NEWS
--------------
6. (SBU) The People's Salvation Party (PSP) elected Dr.
Junnaidu Mohammed, a Russian trained neuroseurgeon and
Chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee in the Second
Republic, as party chairman. PSP is seen as an alternative
platform for General Buhari in the event that things do not
ABUJA 00003216 002.2 OF 002
work out with the ANPP. (NOTE: Given Dr. Junnaidu's
experience, it is generally expected that he will be a strong
organizer of the progressive community. The party is mostly
comprised of northern radicals and a few conservatives who
have been marginalized by the present administration.)
7. (SBU) The Action Congress (AC) has emerged as an
amalgamation of splinter groups from the AD, PDP, and other
parties, with Atiku as it's likely presidential candidate.
Its recent party congress selected a former Governor, Bisi
Akande, as its chairman and former Steel Minister under
Abacha Bashiru Dalhatu as its National Secretary. (NOTE: The
driving forces behind the AC are Vice President Atiku
Abubakar, former North-Central PDP stalwarts such as Chief
Solomon Lar and Audu Ogbeh, and South-West big men such as
Governor Tinubu of Lagos State. Also involved in the AC are
former Alliance for Democracy (AD) governors of Oyo, Ogun,
Ondo, and Osun states who feel betrayed over a deal with
Obasanjo in which AD governors reportedly agreed to support
Obasanjo's presidency in 2003 in return for assurance they
would retain their gubernatorial posts.)
--------------
STATE POLITICS
--------------
8. (SBU) For the third time in three weeks, the Secretariat
of the Delta State PDP was hit by a bomb blast in the early
morning hours of December 12. Two police officers were
critically injured and there was reportedly significant fire
damage to the complex before the blaze was brought under
control. Several other explosions have occurred in the state
as well.
--------------
VOTER REGISTRATION
--------------
9. (SBU) The December 14 deadline for completion of the
voter registration has officially passed. INEC has announced
plans to allow voters holding a registration card from the
2003 elections to "revalidate" their ergistration. This
revalidation exercise is expected to continue until late
January, allowing a couple of weeks for compilation of the
lists before mandated publication on February 14. The
process of "revalidation" of 2003 voter registration cards
remains unclear and no information has been provided to the
public.
10. (SBU) This Day reported on December 13 that 10 million
of 58 million eligible voters have been registered under the
new electronic registration system; however, most post
contacts believe this number is inflated.
11. (SBU) On December 14, the House of Representatives
passed amendments to the 2006 Electoral Law. Specifically,
the amendments extend the period for conducting voter
registration to 45 days prior to the general election and
explicitly outlaw the use of direct data capture machine
registration, mandating instead that INEC begin the process
of registration via manual registration. The Bill, which
passed quicky after a vote to suspend requirements for a
first and second reading, was passed to the Senate for
consideration.
CAMPBELL