Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ABUJA3193
2006-12-13 17:00:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:
VICE PRESIDENT PREDICTS SUPPORT FROM IBB, BUHARI
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C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 003193
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: VICE PRESIDENT PREDICTS SUPPORT FROM IBB, BUHARI
Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (b and d)
C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 003193
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: VICE PRESIDENT PREDICTS SUPPORT FROM IBB, BUHARI
Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (b and d)
1. (C) In a meeting with Ambassador on December 8, Vice
President Atiku Abubakar continued his discussion of his
Presidential prospects. Much of his discussion centered on
well-worn topics and provided little insight into any
evolution in the Vice President's thinking. Atiku appeared
relatively composed, but never settled down and cut the
meeting much shorter than on previous occasions. He also
never broached a subject that would indicate what the
"emergency" that initiated the last minute meeting might be.
2. (C) The Vice President described the current political
climate as "frightening times." He worried that the efforts
of President Obasanjo to extend his tenure had not yet played
out. He credited Obasanjo's Chief of Staff with the
observation that "Mr. President says he is going but his body
language is different." When asked about the military, Atiku
ventured that they would show restraint "as much as they are
able."
3. (C) Atiku correctly predicted the withdrawal of former
head of state Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) and said that a plan
would soon be announced for IBB to back his own candidacy
against the PDP. He claimed that Aliyu Mohammed Gusau,
former National Security Adviser and IBB acolyte, would
continue his efforts to win the PDP nomination but that Gusau
expected merely to "throw some confusion" into the nominating
convention. He claimed that Yar'Adua remained the choice of
the President but that most of the PDP governors viewed their
colleague as a weak and unsuitable candidate.
4. (C) COMMENT: While Atiku seemed much more at ease than
just after the security incident that preceded the last
meeting, he appeared to be less focused on the political and
security issues than on his upcoming travel to the U.S. His
prediction on IBB's withdrawal, which came true this week,
was spot on. The question remains as to whether his analysis
that IBB would back him was accurate or self-serving (or
both). As the political conventions kick off, there is still
no word on Atiku's preferred vehicle for his Presidential bid
and questions remain as to whether the Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC) will allow him to contest at all.
CAMPBELL
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/12/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: VICE PRESIDENT PREDICTS SUPPORT FROM IBB, BUHARI
Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (b and d)
1. (C) In a meeting with Ambassador on December 8, Vice
President Atiku Abubakar continued his discussion of his
Presidential prospects. Much of his discussion centered on
well-worn topics and provided little insight into any
evolution in the Vice President's thinking. Atiku appeared
relatively composed, but never settled down and cut the
meeting much shorter than on previous occasions. He also
never broached a subject that would indicate what the
"emergency" that initiated the last minute meeting might be.
2. (C) The Vice President described the current political
climate as "frightening times." He worried that the efforts
of President Obasanjo to extend his tenure had not yet played
out. He credited Obasanjo's Chief of Staff with the
observation that "Mr. President says he is going but his body
language is different." When asked about the military, Atiku
ventured that they would show restraint "as much as they are
able."
3. (C) Atiku correctly predicted the withdrawal of former
head of state Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) and said that a plan
would soon be announced for IBB to back his own candidacy
against the PDP. He claimed that Aliyu Mohammed Gusau,
former National Security Adviser and IBB acolyte, would
continue his efforts to win the PDP nomination but that Gusau
expected merely to "throw some confusion" into the nominating
convention. He claimed that Yar'Adua remained the choice of
the President but that most of the PDP governors viewed their
colleague as a weak and unsuitable candidate.
4. (C) COMMENT: While Atiku seemed much more at ease than
just after the security incident that preceded the last
meeting, he appeared to be less focused on the political and
security issues than on his upcoming travel to the U.S. His
prediction on IBB's withdrawal, which came true this week,
was spot on. The question remains as to whether his analysis
that IBB would back him was accurate or self-serving (or
both). As the political conventions kick off, there is still
no word on Atiku's preferred vehicle for his Presidential bid
and questions remain as to whether the Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC) will allow him to contest at all.
CAMPBELL