Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ABUJA3061
2006-11-28 14:31:00
UNCLASSIFIED
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOTS #2

Tags:  PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS 
pdf how-to read a cable
VZCZCXRO0247
PP RUEHMA RUEHPA
DE RUEHUJA #3061/01 3321431
ZNR UUUUU ZZH
P 281431Z NOV 06
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7891
INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE
RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 5608
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003061 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W SILSKI AND SANNEH, INR/AA
NSC FOR CHUDSON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOTS #2

REF: ABUJA 2917

THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET
DISTRIBUTION.

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003061

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W SILSKI AND SANNEH, INR/AA
NSC FOR CHUDSON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOTS #2

REF: ABUJA 2917

THIS CABLE IS SENSITIVE BUT UNCLASSIFIED. NOT FOR INTERNET
DISTRIBUTION.


1. (SBU) This cable is the second in a series of elections
snapshots intended to provide a sense of the local
environment in the lead up to the 2007 elections. More
in-depth information and analysis will be reported in
septels, with the snapshot format being used to convey
interesting and pertinent anecdotes or facts. Post welcomes
any comments or suggestions.

VOTER REGISTRATION EXERCISE UPDATE
--------------


2. (U) Maurice Iwu, Chairman of the Independent National
Electoral Commission (INEC) testified before the National
Assembly on November 22 that INEC has registered
approximately 2 million Nigerians for the 2007 election.
INEC estimates that around 70 million citizens are eligible
to vote, meaning that 96% of the electorate has not yet
registered. He also complained that INEC does not have
sufficient funds to run the 2007 elections.


3. (U) On November 27, Maurice Iwu told a gathering of
political party leaders that INEC recently received 13,000
additional direct data capture machines. Iwu also said that
although the preliminary registration period ends December
14, the Electoral Act does not require publication of the
final voters role until February 14, 2007. Iwu indicated
that INEC would use the statutory "revision and amendment"
period to continue adding eligible voters to the roll so that
no Nigerian is disenfranchised by technical difficulties with
the registration exercise.


4. (U) At a November 20 meeting with civil society election
organizations, none of the eight Nigerian citizens present
had succeeded in registering. Two indicated that they had
actively sought information on the location of their local
INEC registration station and had been unable to find any
information. A third reported she had seen a registration
station one afternoon but did not have time to stop and
register. She returned the next day to find the station gone
and no information on where to register.


5. (U) President of the Nigerian Labor Congress and Edo State
gubernatorial candidate Adams Oshiomhole alleged on November
23 that a leading political party (presumably the PDP) was
colluding with INEC officers in the state to register party

members at night. Oshiomhole claims to know as many as three
party members who were approached to register at night. He
maintained that INEC is purposefully sabotaging registration
during the day and registering party members at night in
order to influence the outcome of the elections.



CANDIDATES
--------------


6. (U) Vice President Atiku Abubakar on November 25 formally
declared his intention to run for the Presidency in 2007. He
however did not disclose the platform on which he would run.
Atiku is currently under suspension from the PDP and is not
eligible to collect a PDP nomination form.


7. (U) Twenty seven candidates have collected nomination
forms to run for President under the PDP flag as of November

28. The aspirants include Governor Victor Attah (Akwa Ibom),
General Ibrahim Babangida, Governor Donald Duke (Cross
Rivers),Governor Sam Egwu (Ebonyi),Professor Jerry Gana,
Lt. General Aliyu Gusau (former National Security Advisor),
Governor Ahmed Makarfi (Kaduna),General Buba Marwa, Governor
Chimaroke Nnamani (Enugu),Governor Peter Odili (Rivers),
Governor Saminu Turaki (Jigawa),and Governor Umaru Yar'Adua
(Katsina).


8. (SBU) In spite of rumors that he will pick up PDP
nomination forms, 2003 ANPP flagbearer Muhammadu Buhari plans
to pick up the ANPP nomination forms. His staff expects a
"respectable" turnout at the ANPP National Headquarters for
the event, and if it goes as others have, it has the
potential to garner significant media interest. He has also
inaugurated a campaign committee headed by Prince Tony Momoh,
a Lagos-based indigene of Edo State and long-time political

ABUJA 00003061 002 OF 002


activist.


9. (U) A coalition of seven political parties has adopted
General Buhari as their presidential candidate for 2007. The
Coalition for a New Nigeria (CNN) is made up of the Movement
for Democracy and Justice (MDJ) headed by former Inspector
General of Police M.D. Yusufu, National Conscience Party
(NCP) led by Chief Gani Fawehinimi, People's Redemption Party
(PRP) headed by former Kaduna Governor Balarabe Musa, African
Renaissance Party (ARP) led by Alhaji Yahya Ndu, the People's
Salvation Party (PSP) and the People's Action Congress (PAC).



10. (U) Police disrupted a meeting of opposition politicians
and activists in Kaduna November 27. Several hundred people
gathered at a multi-purpose hall in Kaduna city to listen to
speakers including former Governor Alhaji Balarabe Musa.
While Musa was addressing the crowd, armed police entered the
building and arrested the meeting organizers, who were told
at police headquarters that the summit was "confrontational"
and should be disbanded peacefully or the police would have
to halt it by force.


POLITICAL VIOLENCE
--------------


11. (U) Violence marred PDP local government congresses in
several states on November 18. Fourteen people are believed
to have been killed in Rivers State, while at least five PDP
members were wounded during gun battles in Akwa Ibom after
armed police were brought to PDP headquarters to quell
protests over alleged doctored lists of delegates for the
state Assembly primary election.


12. (U) Members of the Delta and Bayelsa chapters of the PDP
stormed the party's national secretariat in Abuja on November
27 to protest the cancellation and rescheduling of ward
congresses in the states. A detachment of police was sent to
restore order. The police eventually used teargas on the PDP
members.


13. (U) The Catholic Diocese of Nsukka (Enugu State) is
alarmed about ritual killings in the area and says that
similar killings occurred prior to the 2003 elections. A
priest from the Nsukka diocese alleges that at least five
persons from the area have been murdered for ritual purposes
in the past few weeks and that the killers are believed to be
working for local politicians. The priest named at least two
of the victims and described the mutilation they suffered.

ELECTION FACTOIDS
--------------


14. (U) In order to join the race for President on the PDP
ticket, candidates must collect an official nomination form
at PDP headquarters in Abuja. The cost of a PDP presidential
nomination form is 5 million naira (approximately USD 39,060)
and the fee is non-refundable. The PDP offers forms at a
greatly reduced cost to women candidates as an affirmative
action scheme. Women candidates only have to pay an
"expression fee" of 10,000 naira (USD 78) for the nomination
form. At least two women have entered the PDP race: Dr.
Sarah Jibril and Ambassador Elizabeth Ogbon-day. However,
neither is considered a serious contender.

UPCOMING DATES/DEADLINES
--------------

DECEMBER 14 INEC scheduled end of voter registration exercise

DECEMBER 16 PDP National Convention at Eagle's Square in
Abuja
FUREY