NIGERIA: CIVIL SOCIETY ON ELECTION SCENARIOS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003032

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W SILSKI AND SANNEH, INR/AA
NSC FOR CHUDSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/19/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: CIVIL SOCIETY ON ELECTION SCENARIOS

Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. At a November 20 luncheon for civil society
elections-related organizations, participants discussed
possible scenarios for Nigeria's presidential transition and
the status of elections preparations. Participants
maintained Obasanjo hopes to continue his rule of Nigeria --
either through an extension of his term or de facto from his
position as head of the PDP party. Should an
Obasanjo-favored candidate win through a flawed and corrupt
election, participants predicted a speedy end to the new
administration and a popular outcry for a new round of
elections. Participants pointed to recent violence within
PDP party congresses as an indication of a larger trend of
violence to be expected in the upcoming elections. They
requested the Ambassador publicly support passage of the
Freedom of Information Act bill by President Obasanjo, noting
the necessity for accountability within the GON.
Participants described recent encounters with INEC Chairman
Maurice Iwu as hostile and maintained that the dismal
performance of the registration process is both purposeful
and malicious. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) On November 20, the Ambassador hosted a luncheon for
USAID civil society partners involved with the upcoming April
2007 elections. Participants included representatives of
PACT Nigeria, Zero Corruption Coalition, Civil Society
Legislative Advocacy Center, Alliance for Credible Elections,
Media Rights Agenda, and Women, Trafficking and Child Labor
Eradication Foundation. USAID Director, PolOff and Staff
Aide also attended.

POSSIBLE SUCCESSION SCENARIOS
--------------


3. (C) Civil society participants were in agreement that
Obasanjo would prefer to stay in power beyond the scheduled
May handover and the extension of his tenure was the first
scenario discussed. Emma Ezeazu of the Alliance for Credible
Elections noted that INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu could use
unrest in the Delta or tensions in several of the states with
recent impeachment processes as a reason to call for a
postponement of the April elections based on the 2006
Elections Law. Barring extension of Obasanjo's tenure,
participants felt Obasanjo's chosen successor would likely
win through a flawed and corrupt procedure. (They maintained
that Obasanjo is so widely unpopular that a majority will
automatically vote against his chosen successor.) Obasanjo,
they maintained, would continue to rule de facto through his
position as head of the PDP. Should Obasanjo's favored
candidate win, Ezeazu predicted the administration would not
last long, with the Nigerian people demanding another
election. A final scenario, which Ezeazu put forward as a
possible way forward for Nigeria, is the emergence of a
coalition opposition candidate. Ezeazu and Auwul Ibrahim
Musa of Civil Society Legislative Advocacy Center maintained
this would have to be an as yet undeclared candidate. For
personality and prestige reasons, Vice President Atiku,
General Babangida, General Buhari, and others would not drop
out for one among them to run as the opposition candidate. A
new opposition candidate (presumably one without strong ties
to any of the current candidates) would have to emerge upon
which everyone could agree.

POTENTIAL FOR VIOLENCE
--------------


4. (C) Most participants said they expect violence to
continue, noting that incidents of violence in several recent
ward and state PDP Congresses are indicative of the trend.
Ezeazu was singularly optimistic and maintained violence will
not continue through the elections process. Rather, he
believes Nigerians will express their frustrations at
election shortcomings through a call for another election.
(Note: He did not elaborate on how the public might call for
such an election without inciting violence. End Note.)

ACCOUNTABILITY IS THE NAME OF THE GAME
--------------


5. (C) The discussion turned several times to the issue of
accountability. Among this group working to improve voter
education, enhance legislative involvement and educate media
the necessity to insert accountability into the system at all
levels is a key to strengthening Nigerian democracy. Elected
officials, both in the Executive and Legislative branches and

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at all levels, need to be held accountable to the Nigerian
people. In addition, participants stressed the need for
Executive branch accountability to the Judiciary. The
federal government, they maintained, can no longer ignore the
decisions of the Judiciary. Ezeazu indicated the Supreme
Court decision on the constitutionality of the impeachment of
Oyo Governor Ladoje, expected November 21, would be a
watershed. He maintained that consensus is growing against
the Executive branch's blatant flaunting of the constitution
and that he sees the Oyo decision as a turning point. Ekanem
Bassey of PACT Nigeria (and a member of the Nigerian Bar
Association) said she expects the NBA to continue to increase
its public role in calling for accountability and citing the
unconstitutional methods of the Executive.


6. (C) Participants noted the importance of the Freedom of
Information Act (FOIA) bill, passed by both the House and the
Senate and currently being reconciled. They voiced concern
that the bill would be "pocket vetoed" by President Obasanjo.
Musa said Obasanjo became angry in a recent meeting when
asked about the bill. Despite inclusion of the FOIA bill in
the National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy
(NEEDS),Musa maintained Obasanjo will not support FOIA
because it institutionalizes transparency and removes
Presidential authority over the decision of what information
to release. Participants asked the Ambassador to support
publicly the FOIA bill. The Ambassador said he would look
for opportunities publicly to comment on the significant,
positive impact of FOIA on U.S. government transparency and
accountability.

INEC AND VOTER REGISTRATION -- IWU INSULAR AND COMBATIVE
-------------- --------------


7. (C) Participants believe the failure of the electronic
registration process is both purposeful and malicious on the
part of INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu. They maintain that Iwu is
becoming more insular and even combative in his dealings with
civil society. PACT's Bossey said his hostility is the
result of civil society calling him on his public lies. She
pointed to early statements that INEC had sent upwards of
10,000 registration machines to the registration sites and
that Iwu had become combative when civil society
organizations challenged him. Bossey and Musa pointed to
Iwu's repeated public statements that the registration
process is on track. They noted that even by the most
gracious calculations less than one twentieth of voters has
been registered in a month.


8. (SBU) COMMENT: Among the eight Nigerian participants in
the lunch, none had been able successfully to register to
vote. Several commented they had been unable to obtain
information on registration sites and two maintained they had
physically searched for sites with no success. Ezeazu
reported that the Alliance for Credible Elections obtained a
schedule of registration sites from the Abuja INEC office and
was announcing the open sites daily on an Abuja radio
station. The radio station received calls daily, however,
from listeners who reported that the information was
incorrect or the sites were not open. One participant said
she saw an electronic registration machine near her house the
week before but did not have time to register that day. When
she returned the next day the site was closed and no one
could tell her where to go to register. Participants said
NGO colleagues have reported that registration sites in some
rural areas are up to one and a half hours travel from some
villages. Individuals must vote where they register;
however, travel is restricted during the elections for
security reasons.


9. (SBU) COMMENT CONTINUED: These representatives of civil
society are disaffected from INEC and highly suspicious of
the Obasanjo administration. Their attitude is broadly
representative of civil organizations involved with election
mobilization and preparation. END COMMENT.
CAMPBELL