Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ABUJA3031
2006-11-22 16:42:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:
YAR'ADUA: THE LATEST ANOINTED SUCCESSOR?
how-toVZCZCXRO6789 PP RUEHPA DE RUEHUJA #3031/01 3261642 ZNY CCCCC ZZH P 221642Z NOV 06 FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7861 INFO RUEHZK/ECOWAS COLLECTIVE RHEHNSC/NSC WASHINGTON DC RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003031
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: YAR'ADUA: THE LATEST ANOINTED SUCCESSOR?
Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reasons 1.4 (b
and d).
---------
SUMMARY
---------
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003031
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: YAR'ADUA: THE LATEST ANOINTED SUCCESSOR?
Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reasons 1.4 (b
and d).
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) As the race for the presidency in the 2007 elections
intensifies, there are indications that Katsina Governor
Alhaji Umaru Yar'Adua may be the latest "Crown Prince."
Yar'Adua is the latest on the list of candidates reportedly
"anointed" by the villa to replace President Obasanjo in May
2007. Others talked about as Obasanjo's preferred successor
include former minister of foreign and internal affairs,
Ambassador Babagana Kingibe (also MKO Abiola's running mate
in 1993),Governor Peter Odili of Rivers State, former
minister of information, Jerry Gana and former military
governor of Lagos State, General Buba Marwa. Yar'Adua, who
won the gubernatorial elections in Katsina on the platform of
the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 1999, picked up a PDP
presidential nomination form on November 17. END SUMMARY.
--------------
YAR'ADUA'S BACKGROUND
--------------
2. (C) Umaru Yar'Adua, a brother of late Shehu Musa Yar'Adua
is a Hausa/Fulani Muslim from the royal family of Katsina
Emirate. Yar'Adua comes from the same home state and
birthplace as General Muhammadu Buhari, Obasanjo's challenger
in 2003 who is also seeking election in 2007. Governor
Yar'Adua became governor of Katsina in 1999 largely due to
the popularity of his late brother, who died in prison in
1996 during the Abacha regime. He was born in 1951 and was
educated at Ahmadu Bello University in Zaria. He is soft
spoken and appears crowd-shy. In his first term, Governor
Yar'Adua was well liked for his prudence and populist
posture, but he has been less popular during his second term.
His support for the controversial bid to extend Obasanjo's
tenure caused a decline in his popularity among Northern
elite. Although Yar'Adua has made indelible marks on the
history of the state, he is politically and physically
unknown outside Katsina. He rarely travels out of his
official residence in Katsina. There are concerns about his
medical condition as he appears emaciated and weighed down by
what some term terminal illness.
--------------
STYLE OF GOVERNANCE IN KATSINA STATE
--------------
3. (C) Allegations are rife that Governor Yar'Adua's poor
health provided an opportunity for his wife, Turai Yar'Adua,
to be the de facto governor of the state. Government
business and contract awards were allegedly carried out
through her instructions and without recourse to due process.
Although initially known to be firm and strict in conducting
state's affairs, Yar'Adua no longer exhibits such assertive
behavior.
--------------
WHY WOULD OBASANJO CHOOSE HIM?
--------------
4. (C) A combination of longtime ties with the Yar'Adua
family, the governor's unalloyed support during the Third
Term imbroglio coupled with certain political calculations
must have influenced President Obasanjo to tacitly toy with
the idea of throwing his support to Governor Yar'Adua. The
governor has remained loyal and respectful to President
Obasanjo since coming to office in 1999. He recently played
a major during the controversial plan to extend Obasanjo's
tenure. The loyalty and family connection may have attracted
the sympathy of the president. It is also possible that
Obasanjo will support Yar'Adua as a kind of "Potemkin
candidate" to mask another agenda.
5. (C) Besides being a northern aristocrat, Governor
Yar'Adua is the younger brother of Shehu Yar'Adua, Obasanjo's
longtime friend, associate and political ally. Obasanjo's
deputy in the late seventies, both Shehu Yar'Adua and
Obasanjo were tried and jailed in 1995 for allegedly plotting
a coup against Abacha's military junta. Before his death,
Shehu was the de facto leader of Nigeria's politics. He
founded the most effective political organization in the
country, the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) which
eventually emerged as one of the major groups that formed the
ABUJA 00003031 002 OF 002
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 1999. Obasanjo used the
same political structure to capture power. However, with the
demise of senior Yar'Adua in 1996, Vice President Atiku
Abubakar took over as leader and financier of the group. The
calculation may be that Governor Yar'Adua's entry into the
presidential contest would factionalize or neutralize the
influence of Atiku in the PDM camp, since the brother of the
group's founder is now in the race.
6. (C) Governor Yar'Adua hails from the same state as
General Muhammadu Buhari, who is widely popular among the
grassroots in the region. Yar'Adua's emergence as PDP flag
bearer would likely jeopardize Buhari's chances in the race.
Yar'Adua's participation in the upcoming PDP presidential
primaries may also hurt the chances of General Ibrahim
Babangida and other northerners. Yar'Adua and Babangida are
Muslims and northerners. Yar'Adua's presence in the race
would further split the votes of the region making it
difficult for Babangida to win. The multitude of northern
contestants in the PDP may be an orchestrated plan by
President Obasanjo to control the selection process, so
fracturing the vote to make it impossible for any northern
candidate to win the party primary.
7. (C) Yar'Adua is also one of the few governors that have
not been indicted by the Economic and Financial Crimes
Commission (EFCC). He is likely to pass through the EFCC's
screening before the main election. Obasanjo may support his
bid if only to convince Nigerians and the international
community about his seriousness in fighting corruption.
--------------
COMMENT
--------------
8. (C) Comment: Yar'Adua is merely the latest in a string
of candidates talked about around Abuja as the "hand-picked
successor to Obasanjo." With only a few short weeks before
the PDP National Convention (scheduled for December 16 in
Abuja) when the party's slate of candidates will be
finalized, President Obasanjo will soon have to make up his
mind and publicly signal his support for one of the
contenders if he truly intends leave a successor in his place.
CAMPBELL
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: YAR'ADUA: THE LATEST ANOINTED SUCCESSOR?
Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reasons 1.4 (b
and d).
--------------
SUMMARY
--------------
1. (C) As the race for the presidency in the 2007 elections
intensifies, there are indications that Katsina Governor
Alhaji Umaru Yar'Adua may be the latest "Crown Prince."
Yar'Adua is the latest on the list of candidates reportedly
"anointed" by the villa to replace President Obasanjo in May
2007. Others talked about as Obasanjo's preferred successor
include former minister of foreign and internal affairs,
Ambassador Babagana Kingibe (also MKO Abiola's running mate
in 1993),Governor Peter Odili of Rivers State, former
minister of information, Jerry Gana and former military
governor of Lagos State, General Buba Marwa. Yar'Adua, who
won the gubernatorial elections in Katsina on the platform of
the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 1999, picked up a PDP
presidential nomination form on November 17. END SUMMARY.
--------------
YAR'ADUA'S BACKGROUND
--------------
2. (C) Umaru Yar'Adua, a brother of late Shehu Musa Yar'Adua
is a Hausa/Fulani Muslim from the royal family of Katsina
Emirate. Yar'Adua comes from the same home state and
birthplace as General Muhammadu Buhari, Obasanjo's challenger
in 2003 who is also seeking election in 2007. Governor
Yar'Adua became governor of Katsina in 1999 largely due to
the popularity of his late brother, who died in prison in
1996 during the Abacha regime. He was born in 1951 and was
educated at Ahmadu Bello University in Zaria. He is soft
spoken and appears crowd-shy. In his first term, Governor
Yar'Adua was well liked for his prudence and populist
posture, but he has been less popular during his second term.
His support for the controversial bid to extend Obasanjo's
tenure caused a decline in his popularity among Northern
elite. Although Yar'Adua has made indelible marks on the
history of the state, he is politically and physically
unknown outside Katsina. He rarely travels out of his
official residence in Katsina. There are concerns about his
medical condition as he appears emaciated and weighed down by
what some term terminal illness.
--------------
STYLE OF GOVERNANCE IN KATSINA STATE
--------------
3. (C) Allegations are rife that Governor Yar'Adua's poor
health provided an opportunity for his wife, Turai Yar'Adua,
to be the de facto governor of the state. Government
business and contract awards were allegedly carried out
through her instructions and without recourse to due process.
Although initially known to be firm and strict in conducting
state's affairs, Yar'Adua no longer exhibits such assertive
behavior.
--------------
WHY WOULD OBASANJO CHOOSE HIM?
--------------
4. (C) A combination of longtime ties with the Yar'Adua
family, the governor's unalloyed support during the Third
Term imbroglio coupled with certain political calculations
must have influenced President Obasanjo to tacitly toy with
the idea of throwing his support to Governor Yar'Adua. The
governor has remained loyal and respectful to President
Obasanjo since coming to office in 1999. He recently played
a major during the controversial plan to extend Obasanjo's
tenure. The loyalty and family connection may have attracted
the sympathy of the president. It is also possible that
Obasanjo will support Yar'Adua as a kind of "Potemkin
candidate" to mask another agenda.
5. (C) Besides being a northern aristocrat, Governor
Yar'Adua is the younger brother of Shehu Yar'Adua, Obasanjo's
longtime friend, associate and political ally. Obasanjo's
deputy in the late seventies, both Shehu Yar'Adua and
Obasanjo were tried and jailed in 1995 for allegedly plotting
a coup against Abacha's military junta. Before his death,
Shehu was the de facto leader of Nigeria's politics. He
founded the most effective political organization in the
country, the Peoples Democratic Movement (PDM) which
eventually emerged as one of the major groups that formed the
ABUJA 00003031 002 OF 002
Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in 1999. Obasanjo used the
same political structure to capture power. However, with the
demise of senior Yar'Adua in 1996, Vice President Atiku
Abubakar took over as leader and financier of the group. The
calculation may be that Governor Yar'Adua's entry into the
presidential contest would factionalize or neutralize the
influence of Atiku in the PDM camp, since the brother of the
group's founder is now in the race.
6. (C) Governor Yar'Adua hails from the same state as
General Muhammadu Buhari, who is widely popular among the
grassroots in the region. Yar'Adua's emergence as PDP flag
bearer would likely jeopardize Buhari's chances in the race.
Yar'Adua's participation in the upcoming PDP presidential
primaries may also hurt the chances of General Ibrahim
Babangida and other northerners. Yar'Adua and Babangida are
Muslims and northerners. Yar'Adua's presence in the race
would further split the votes of the region making it
difficult for Babangida to win. The multitude of northern
contestants in the PDP may be an orchestrated plan by
President Obasanjo to control the selection process, so
fracturing the vote to make it impossible for any northern
candidate to win the party primary.
7. (C) Yar'Adua is also one of the few governors that have
not been indicted by the Economic and Financial Crimes
Commission (EFCC). He is likely to pass through the EFCC's
screening before the main election. Obasanjo may support his
bid if only to convince Nigerians and the international
community about his seriousness in fighting corruption.
--------------
COMMENT
--------------
8. (C) Comment: Yar'Adua is merely the latest in a string
of candidates talked about around Abuja as the "hand-picked
successor to Obasanjo." With only a few short weeks before
the PDP National Convention (scheduled for December 16 in
Abuja) when the party's slate of candidates will be
finalized, President Obasanjo will soon have to make up his
mind and publicly signal his support for one of the
contenders if he truly intends leave a successor in his place.
CAMPBELL