NIGERIA: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOTS

UNCLAS ABUJA 002917

SIPDIS
CORRECTED COPY - CAPTION ADDED
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W SILSKI AND SANNEH, INR/AA
NSC FOR CHUDSON

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: PGOV KDEM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ELECTIONS SNAPSHOTS

REF: A. ABUJA 2890

B. ABUJA 2842


1. (SBU) In an attempt to convey the local environment in the
lead up to 2007 elections, Post plans to submit a series of
elections snapshots. More in-depth information and analysis
will be reported in septels, with the snapshot format being
used to convey interesting and pertinent anecdotes or facts.
This cable is the first in this series. Post welcomes any
comments or suggestions.

VOTER REGISTRATION EXERCISE UPDATE
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2. (SBU) Numerous sources have reported problems with the
INEC voter registration exercise, including inadequate
numbers of electronic registration machines, non-functioning
machines, only small numbers of registration stations open
(or none at all),untrained staff, insufficient public
information and long delays. Voter registration officially
started October 25 in all 36 states.

-- On October 26, Vanguard and The Guardian reported that
Vice President Atiku Abubakar went to Ajiya Ward, Adamawa
state to register. According to reports, it took almost 40
minutes and 15 attempts to capture the Vice President's
picture for the voter registration card. The Vice President
declined to comment on the registration exercise, stating he
preferred for Nigerians to go through the process and come to
their own conclusions.

-- PolOff traveled to Plateau State October 29-31 and met
with various individuals, including the Resident Electoral
Commissioner, local government officials, party
representatives, and a gubernatorial candidate.
Interestingly, none of these individuals knew the location of
ward registration sites and none had yet registered.

-- PolSpecialist attempted (unsuccessfully) to register in
his home ward in Sabon Gari Zaria, Kaduna State on November
4-5. He was unable to find a registration site, nor anyone
who had seen or heard of a registration site or INEC official
in the area since the beginning of the registration exercise.
PolSpecialist reports that most people he spoke to believe
the registration exercise exists only in the media.
PolAssistant also reports that she has not found a
registration site in her local ward.

-- At a November 6 meeting of local and international NGOs on
civil society involvement and voter registration, only one of
the approximately 40 local NGO employees present reported she
had successfully registered.

-- PACT Nigeria's local Civil Society Program Coordinator,
who has been working on voter education, reports she has been
unable to locate her ward registration site.


3. (SBU) Politicians across party lines in Kano State have
expressed displeasure with the voter registration exercise.
A local politician speaking on the BBC Hausa Service
maintained registration is being conducted currently in only
6 of the 44 local wards and wondered how it would be possible
to complete the registry in time for the December 14
deadline.


4. (SBU) Nigerian radio stations are now playing "Register to
Vote" public service announcements. The INEC-sponsored
commercials encourage Nigerians to "be patriotic" and
"register near your home or office in all 36 states and the
FCT." No specifics are given regarding how or where to
register, but the advertisements do feature a snappy jingle.

SEARCHING FOR A FEW GOOD CANDIDATES...
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5. (SBU) Governor Donald Duke of Cross Rivers State launched
his presidential campaign in Abuja on November 7 at a
well-funded event which drew a crowd of approximately 5,000.
Duke is seeking the nomination of the PDP. One audience
member told PolOff that many attendees were paid 1000 Naira
each (8 USD) to attend.


6. (SBU) At an October 26 PAS-sponsored press event, National
Democratic Institute representatives urged members of the
Nigerian press to look beyond personalities and ethnicity in
covering candidates and to focus attention on issues that
will impact the lives of Nigeria's citizens. NDI
characterized Nigeria's political parties as weak and
fragile, noting the parties themselves are incapable of
educating the public on party platforms. Members of the press
present for the briefing were noticeably negative on the
possibility of free and fair elections in April.


7. (SBU) A senior officer of the Economic and Financial
Crimes Commission (EFCC) recently told PolOff that it would
be a "significant accomplishment" if 2007 elections could be
60 percent free and fair. He added that even 15 "good"
(meaning not significantly corrupt) governors would be an
overwhelming success.

ELECTION FACTOIDS
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8. (SBU) Women make up the single largest segment of voters
in Nigeria.


9. (SBU) As of the October 14 application deadline for
political party registration, 45 parties have requested
registration.

UPCOMING DEADLINES
--------------


10. (SBU) Presidential and National Assembly Elections

-- December 22: Political parties submit list of candidates
for President and National Assembly.

-- February 10: Last date to withdraw candidate.

-- February 20: Deadline to replace withdrawn candidate.

-- April 21: Presidential and National Assembly Elections.


11. (SBU) Gubernatorial and State Assembly Elections

-- December 15: Political parties submit list of candidates
for Governors and State Assemblies.

-- February 3: Last date to withdraw candidate.

-- February 13: Deadline to replace withdrawn candidate.

-- April 14: Gubernatorial and State House Assembly Elections.


CAMPBELL