NIGERIA: DRAFT PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION PLAN LEAKED

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 002896

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W SILSKI AND SANNEH, INR/AA
NSC FOR CHUDSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV ECON KCOR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: DRAFT PRESIDENTIAL SUCCESSION PLAN LEAKED


Classified By: Classified by Political Counselor Russell Hanks for reas
ons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. A leaked Presidential succession strategy
from within the Villa outlines a strategy for PDP political
domination in Nigeria over the next 24 years. The strategy
calls for President Obasanjo to name the next six candidates,
who will govern in a North-South swap of the presidency and
vice-presidency. The document also recommends establishment
of a concurrent party structure within the PDP, as there is
insufficient time to reform the party before elections.
While on the surface the objectives seem perfectly
legitimate, such as continuation of Obasanjo's reform agenda
and the attraction of credible political officials, the
strategies for achieving these objectives include coordinated
use of security forces and influence over voter turnout in
opposition-dominated areas. With dire warnings for the fate
of the nation if PDP does not emerge victorious, the document
provides a troubling insight into the possible mindset of
Obasanjo's inner circle. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) PolOff, PAOff and PolFSN met with Editor-in-Chief Sam
Nda-Isaiah (strictly protect) of Leadership newspaper on
October 31 to discuss a draft Presidential succession plan
which was leaked and included as an insert in the Leadership
Sunday edition on October 29. The document, titled "Nigeria
20-2020 from 2006 to 2020: Sustainability and Succession Plan
(Draft for Discussion)" and dated August 2006, was written by
a six-member Presidential Advisory Team identified only as
T6. Nda-Isaiah opined that the document is proof that
internal democracy has failed within the PDP, with the party
wholly reliant on Obasanjo. Nda-Isaiah said Obasanjo
believes the country and the PDP will fall apart without his
leadership. He maintained Obasanjo prefers to remain in
office, but that barring this possibility he will accept a
position as permanent PDP chairman. In either case,
Nda-Isaiah said Obasanjo will protect Presidential Advisor
Andy Uba, placing him in a position that confers immunity in
order to protect both Obasanjo and Uba.


3. (C) According to Nda-Isaiah, the document was leaked by
someone within the Villa security. He considers the source
to be credible and believes the document authentic.
Nda-Isaiah told EmbOffs he sees Abuja Federal Capital
Territory Minister Mallam Nasir el-Rufai's style in the
writing of the document. Other sources have told Pol
Counselor that the six member team is composed of: el-Rufai,
Minister of Education Obiageli Ezekwesili, Economic and
Financial Crimes Commission Chairman Mallam Nuhu Ribadu,
former Presidential Spokesman and newly-appointed Aviation
Minister Femi Fani-Kayode, Presidential Political Advisor
Akin Oshuntokun, and Presidential Senior Special Assistant on
Domestic Affairs Andy Uba.

Succession Plans and PDP Domination
--------------


4. (C) The document outlines a plan to provide for PDP
domination of Nigerian politics at a national and state level
for the next twenty-four years (six full terms). The
objective is to preserve Obasanjo's reform programs and
address upheavals in the Delta. On a positive note, the Team
calls for free and fair elections in 2007 and a national
campaign for good governance. It recommends identifying
credible individuals and encouraging them to participate in
the 2007 elections. In the same breath, however, the Team
envisions using the SSS, Police, EFCC, ICPC and other state
organs to secure a victory. The document also calls for
"defensive measures to be put in place where the opposition
is stronger to minimize voter turn out."


5. (C) As far as selection of presidential and vice
presidential candidates, the document is explicit in
reserving this decision for Obasanjo. The Team recommends
selecting three strong candidates from the North and three
from the South. All six individuals must be "highly
marketable and patient enough to take their turns as future
presidents or vice presidents." Whomever Obasanjo chooses as
Vice President in 2007 (on a ticket including one Northerner
and one Southerner),then becomes the Presidential candidate
for the next round of elections. This process would
continue, with Vice President becoming President and
alternating between North and South, through all six
individuals. The Team envisions these six future presidents
maintaining positions as Ministers, Special Advisers and
Assistants, State Governors, Deputy Governors, Speakers of
State Houses of Assembly or members of the National Assembly,
or leading key government departments such as the Central
Bank, while they await their turn in the Villa. (NOTE:
Interestingly, the only time in the document that the
gender-neutral construction was used was in referring to
potential future presidents from among the Ministers and
Special Advisors or Assistants categories. END NOTE.) The
Team rejects the possibility of a dark horse candidate,
noting that a winning presidential candidate must be a
"popular, well-packaged, consumable product."

Reforming the PDP - A Call for Concurrent Structures
-------------- --------------


6. (C) The document also calls for reform of the PDP, noting
that reliance on the current PDP structure to win the
elections is "very risky." The Team calls for free and fair
election of party executives and "appropriate" funding to
prevent being ruled by godfathers. The Team concludes,
however, that this cannot be done in time for the April
elections as it requires a change in party leadership.
Instead, the Team recommends the establishment of a
concurrent party structure to manage the elections. The Team
notes that extra funding will be necessary, but offers no
potential sources.


7. (C) This concurrent structure consists of the Team and a
President's Core Group (no more than ten, with the President
as Chairman and the PDP candidate as Vice Chair). The Core
Group coordinates six Zonal Facilitators and 36 State
Enhancers, both performing and directing local and state
election activities. As well, the Core Group is responsible
for "systematically coordinating the use of Police, SSS,
EFCC, ICPC and other state organs as per their respective
roles before and during elections based on new approaches...
which will be detailed out subsequently."


8. (C) The Core Group will also work to reconcile and resolve
intra-party disputes. The document warns that corrupt
Governors and Vice President Atiku may unify against the
President. Apart from what the report terms the "very bad
states of Abia, Adamawa, Benue and Plateau," it envisions
offering the following package deal to corrupt officials: (1)
voluntarily return looted funds, (2) agree to support
reform-minded candidates in 2007, (3) quietly retire from
politics, and (4) accept an appointed position within the
Federal government, at home or overseas. The Team maintains
that most of what it terms the "coalition of corruption"
would accept this deal if they feel "the next President and
his core team can be trusted to keep their words." (COMMENT.
This is likely an implicit promise of protection against
prosecution. END COMMENT.)

Dire Warnings if No PDP Victory
--------------


9. (C) The Team maintains that should the opposition win,
"the reform will be destroyed, its initiator and implementers
humiliated, jailed and possibly killed." The Team also warns
of the possibility of stalemated elections undermining the
legitimacy of the presidency and leading to political
conflict. It accuses the international news services of
being the source of rumors and calls for stringers to be
"identified for engagement, neutralizaiton or deployment
against the enemy." The release of the census data is seen
as a potential problem, with the Team noting it could be used
by anyone for "mischief."

A Troubling Look Inside the Villa
--------------


10. (C) The plan reads in large sections as a typical
strategy document from an incumbent political party hoping to
stay in power to see its policies fully implemented. What is
disturbing, however, is the insight that other sections give
into the possible mindset of Obasanjo's inner circle of
advisors. The document frequently refers to the elections as
a "war," talks of "neutralizing" the opposition, and refers
to opponents of the third-term as the "coalition of evil."
The document's references to the use of the SSS, Police,
EFCC, ICPC and other state organs to ensure PDP victory and
accusation of foreign press outlets as being the sources of
political rumors are particularly troubling given Nigeria's
history. While the objective of continuing Obasanjo's reform
agenda may be perfectly legitimate, it is clear the authors
feel the end justifies the means and are willing to pursue
authoritarian strategies and undermine the rule of law to
achieve an election-day victory.



CAMPBELL