IWU ENDORSES USG STATEMENTS ON ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002890

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: IWU ENDORSES USG STATEMENTS ON ELECTIONS

REF: A. ABUJA 2077


B. ABUJA 2842

Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Chairman of INEC Maurice Iwu painted a rosy
picture of preparations for Nigeria's 2007 elections,
singling out statements from the Embassy as helpful to the
process. He said that the earlier registration practice runs
had been successful and that the main registration process
was now "on track" with no problems ahead. Iwu also told the
Ambassador that the lack of public relations activity was by
choice, but that citizens did not appear to have an interest
in the process. He complained about the current crop of
politicians, commenting on previous irregularities and saying
that many, "especially in the National Assembly," needed to
be changed.

GENERAL COOPERATION
--------------


2. (U) In an October 30 meeting with the Ambassador,
Chairman of the Independent National Election Commission
(INEC) Maurice Iwu struck a rosy tone in spite of the many
criticisms of INEC. He said that the complaints that there
was "not enough time to finish all its tasks" were not new
and that in fact, "the same thing happened to my
predecessor." He also assessed the support provided by NGOs
as very useful and said that IFES is "fully engaged in the
process." That said, he continued that NDI and IRI "need to
coordinate their activites more closely with INEC." He was
effusive in describing the statements of the USG as "very
helpful" and encouraged the Ambassador to continue talking
publicly about the process. "Nigerians should understand
that elections are not merely internal, but concern the
international community." Iwu also expressed his concern
about the recent airline disaster and the loss of the Sultan
of Sokoto. He said that the "Sultan was a friend and gave a
lot of support to INEC."

REGISTRATION PROCESS
--------------


3. (SBU) Iwu said that the July pilot registration went
well and provided the basis for a successful open
registration period (ref A). A "special registration" period
that began on October 7 was also "very successful" and Iwu
showed two sample ward voters lists to the Ambasador. He
highlighted the advantage of the electronic machines ,
pointing out that "there is no time lag" for processing.
Iwu claimed that INEC had deployed 2000 machines for the
kickoff of the "main registration" period on October 25. "We
expect the full complement of 33000 machines in place by
Novemeber 15," he said. Iwu promised that the final list
will be out by February 14.



4. (SBU) As a backup, Iwu continued, registrars are also
filling out a paper registration at the same time that the
electronic registration was going and that copies of the
paper form are left at the polling station. Iwu said that
INEC had decided that the registration machines were "no
longer necessary" for each polling place during elections.
"They are ony needed for validating the register," he said.
He said that double registration would be eliminated before
election day and that they are "adapting the software" from
the machines to run on "normal laptops" to further augment
the expensive handheld equipment. Iwu said INEC hoped to
move to a continuous registry after the 2007 elections. He
reminded the Ambassador that it was to have happened after
2003, "but the database was corrupted."



5. (C) Iwu said that even though the GON project office
(the due process office) blocked payment to the companies
supplying the registration machines, INEC has "enough money
and machines" to complete the electoral process. "INEC is
committed to the project," Iwu averred, because "if we go
back we would have the same thing as Rivers State in 2003,"
i.e., more voters than registrants.

PROBLEMS?
--------------


6. (SBU) Iwu said that the "little publicity" that INEC has
put out has "had a great impact." Still, he said, it was a
difficult thing for now but INEC had chosen to "start slowly"

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and planned to intensify "in the next couple of weeks."
Sometime after the November 8 formal notice of the polls, "we
will launch the "public kick-off."


7. (C) Discussing other aspects of the elections, Iwu chose
not to discuss potential problems raised by the release of
the National Census close to election day. He assured the
Ambassador that "the census will present no particular
problem because it won't affect the registration and there
will be no redistricting before elections." He then
explained that one of INEC's principle jobs, monitoring
campaign finance, was done "primarily through the newspapers"
and did not suggest that plans exist to augment this.


8. (C) Iwu then turned to the political climate throughout
Nigeria. He said he was concerned about the electoral
climate in Plateau state where "we should have held a
by-election this weekend." Iwu explained that a by-election
was necessary "to replace the State Assembly members who
changed parties." "If they decamp, they give up their
seats," he said. When asked about the politicians in Jigawa
state that switched parties, he said that "nobody complained,
so INEC doesn't have a role there."


9. (C) Iwu then went on to state that people currently in
government "did not come in in the normal way." The
commitment to democracy is not there among them. "We need a
new crop of politicians, especially in the National
Assembly," he said For the current politicians, "election
time is harvest time," a time to make money. Iwu said he had
been under a lot of (unspecified) pressure to "bias the
process." "The murders now are a result of the 2003
experience," he said. He blamed most of the killings in
Rivers State and throughout the delta region on gangs of the
governors' and other politcians' "own thugs" attacking their
former masters and the general public. "This is what makes
our program on electoral violence important," he stated.


10. (C) Still, Iwu said that there is "no threat to
successful elections." Everything is on track and there is
nothing more that INEC needs to complete the process. "We
have the budget and the equipment. The only thing left is
ordering ballot boxes and papers." Still, he said it is
troubling that "citizen involvement is low and the public is
not participating."


11. (C) COMMENT: Iwu's take on the upcoming elections and
INEC's performance to date conflicts directly with that of
the NGOs which we support financially (ref B). His rosy
description of the process and the respect INEC receives can
only be explained by one of two things: either he is
uninformed as to the true situation or he is playing a role
as scripted by the highest levels of Nigeria's government.
In either case, the outcome of the registration exercise is
an enormous hurdle for him and for INEC. The continued
apparent lack of coordination and effort to ensure timely
elections in 2007 is already causing a lack of faith in the
electoral system throughout Nigeria. If this lack of faith
continues, INEC as an institution could very well have sown
the seeds of its own doom whether or not election results in
April turn out to be acceptable.
CAMPBELL