SENATOR SARAKI ON TERRORISM, DELTA, 2007 ELECTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 002889

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/03/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR PTER PBTS NI
SUBJECT: SENATOR SARAKI ON TERRORISM, DELTA, 2007 ELECTIONS


Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: PolOff and visiting SFRC staff member paid
an October 31 courtesy call on Senator Gbemi Saraki-Fowora at
her Abuja residence. Saraki insisted that the threat of
terrorism in Northern Nigeria loomed ominously, particularly
given Nigeria's porous borders and the extreme poverty in
much of the North. Moreover, she advanced a military
solution as the "only possible" alternative to resolving the
Delta crisis, solicited increased USG democracy and security
assistance, and warned that the 2007 elections would be
"acceptable, though dirty." END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Senate Foreign Relations Committee (SFRC) Staffer Jay
Branegan explained that the SFRC endeavored to investigate
U.S. security assistance, military-military relations, and
host government cooperation in pursuing activities related to
the Global War on Terror (GWOT) during its tour of Nigeria
and other non-combat African countries. Senator Saraki
conceded that while the USG's efforts have played a
demonstrable role in curbing terrorist activity in Nigeria,
in her view the threat remains both critical and imminent,
due in large measure to permeable, poorly-controlled borders
with Niger and Chad. Saraki solicited USG assistance in
border patrol, claiming that Nigerian military lacks
requisite prowess and equipment to delimit the infiltration
of foreign militants, incendiary, seditious preachers, and
weaponry into Nigeria's most vulnerable Northern areas. She
contended that rampant poverty, desperation, and opportunity
fuel terrorism and that "Nigeria is as much a target of
terrorism as the U.S."


3. (C) While acknowledging Nigerian military incompetence
and obsolescence in the Delta, Saraki proffered that "only a
military solution" can resolve the Delta crisis, adding that
"might makes right" particularly in the face of "terrorist
brutality and greed."


4. (C) Senator Saraki referred to the U.S. as Nigeria's "Big
Brother" who "needs to step in and ensure we're on track."
When asked to elaborate, she admitted that democratization
"needs nudging" in Nigeria and though fully expecting
"acceptable, though dirty" elections to take place in 2007,
Saraki admitted that "anything's possible" hinting that
Obasanjo may yet have a few "tricks up his sleeve." As one
of the few PDP senators to oppose Obasanjo's Third Term bid,
amidst immense party pressure and recurrent fear of reprisal,
Senator Saraki voiced appreciation for the Mission's stance
and public declaration against the Third Term. She also
noted that the clamor for Sharia, like in the 1999 elections,
is likely to figure "prominently" in the 2007 elections,
especially since it may confer legitimacy upon and garner
support for an ostensibly alienated Northern elite.


5. (C) COMMENT: Senator Saraki hails from a wealthy,
powerful, and politically-savvy Nigerian family in the Yoruba
Muslim-majority Kwara State. Articulate and candid, Senator
Saraki maintains a close connection to the U.S. since her two
children, aged 11 and 15, attend a Massachusetts boarding
school. Post believes that Saraki somewhat overstated the
potential for terrorist activity in Northern Nigeria,
probably to encourage increased foreign assistance for
Nigeria, but we will continue to monitor the situation in the
North and provide timely reporting on extremism. We will
also continue to seek out opportunities to liaise and
strengthen our relationship with the Saraki dynasty,
including the Senator's brother, Kwara State Governor Dr.
Abubakar Bukola Saraki. END COMMENT.
CAMPBELL