NIGERIA: VOTER REGISTRATION DEADLINE LOOMS LARGE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 002842

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR AF/W SILSKI AND SANNEH, INR/AA
NSC FOR CHUDSON

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: VOTER REGISTRATION DEADLINE LOOMS LARGE

REF: A. ABUJA 2633


B. ABUJA 2521

Classified By: Classified by Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for R
easons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY. According to USG elections partners, INEC is
poised to miss the December voter registration deadline while
a lack of planning for the election cycle is likely to
severely damage INEC's reputation and further fuel conspiracy
theories about election delays. With insufficient numbers of
voter registration machines and many of the machines not
functioning properly, international NGOs asked Ambassador
Campbell to urge INEC Chairman Maurice Iwu to focus on
preparations for an alternative registration process. Using
reworked 2003 registration lists is a possibility, but INEC
would need 2-3 months to update the lists and there is a
danger of repeating 2003 registration problems. Political
violence, while seeming to be in a lull at present, may well
increase as party conventions approach at year's end. As
deadlines continue to pass, the desire for free and fair
elections may well be subsumed by procedural and security
concerns. END SUMMARY.


2. (SBU) On October 30, Ambassador, Political and Economic
Officers and USAID Director and officers met with
representatives of the National Democratic Institute (NDI),
International Republican Institute (IRI),IFES and PACT
Nigeria to discuss the campaign environment and Nigeria's
progress in preparing for the 2007 elections.


3. (C) The IFES representative painted a bleak picture of
voter registration preparations and the NDI representative
maintained the situation is no longer a "problem" but a
"crisis." IFES called on the Ambassador and other foreign
officials to meet with Independent Nigerian Electoral
Commission (INEC) Chairman Maurice Iwu to urge him to focus
on concrete planning and preparations for an alternative
registration process. IFES noted that voter registration
planning and training typically takes one year; however, INEC
is attempting it in only two months. NDI reported that
several political parties have expressed their desire to
deploy party agents to monitor the registration sites. INEC
reportedly accepts this proposal "in theory."

VOTER REGISTRATION -- LACK OF PLANNING AND MACHINES
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Voter registration began October 25 (despite a planned
October 7 start) in all 36 states (Ref. A). IFES reported,
however, that only 1,000 voter registration machines have
been received -- far too few for the 122,000 polling
stations. Despite hopes for more machines soon, none have
yet materialized. IFES told Ambassador Campbell that at a
bare minimum 33,000 machines would be needed by November 1 to
meet the December 12 registration deadline. IFES expressed
strong doubts that INEC could complete the registration on
time. With the current 1,000 machines, IFES estimates it
will take 20 months to complete the registration. Even if
INEC receives the remaining 32,000 machines in time, it will
need more than 57,000 machines to conduct electronic
registration verification for the April elections.


5. (C) IFES also expressed concern regarding the quality of
voter registration machines. Of the 1,000 machines currently
in Nigeria, it is not clear how many are functioning
properly. According to IFES, INEC purchased a total of
23,000 machines from an inexperienced Canadian company. The
machines already received from this company are not
functioning properly due to coding problems (Ref. B). (NOTE:
As also reported Ref. B, a 20 billion Naira INEC check to the
Canadian company for the machines allegedly bounced due to
Central Bank determinations that the machines were invoiced
at twice the normal cost and allegations of tendering
irregularities. IFES has heard further allegations that INEC
asked this same Canadian company to provide 5,000 more
machines overnight, with no tender process or open
competition. END NOTE.) IFES reports that machines
purchased from a South African company are good; however,
INEC only purchased 5,000 of these machines. An additional
5,000 machines were purchased from a Malaysian company.


6. (C) IFES told Ambassador Campbell there is no unified
position within INEC on an alternative plan. That said, INEC
has reworked the 2003 registration lists. While not a best
case scenario, IFES reports that the lists should be "better
than 2003." Even with the old lists, however, an additional
2-3 months would be needed to update the registry. NDI,
however, noted that INEC contacts warned them that despite
reworking the list, using the 2003 lists could result in a
repeat of 2003 problems. In addition, financial difficulties
remain -- the money has already been spent for the electronic
machines and no funds are currently available for updating
the old lists. Abuja-based international elections experts
reported last week that INEC does not have sufficient funds
to pay the ad hoc voter registration staff and has requested,
in private, $45 million from the international community to
make up the shortfall, while publicly declaring there are no
financial problems.

VOTER APATHY, SECURITY PROBLEMS AND INTIMIDATION
-------------- ---


7. (C) IRI reported it completed an assessment of nine
states, noting voter apathy, an ineffective registration
process, lack of public information and security problems
among the main issues. PACT said civil society NGOs are
being approached for general information on registration
which should be provided by INEC. NDI noted that on recent
trips to registration sites, its employees were mistaken for
absent INEC employees and besieged by questions. According
to PACT, local NGOs are picking up the ball, but more funding
is needed for advocacy, security, and issues-based
information.


8. (C) IRI reported a lull in political violence, but
cautioned that violence will likely increase once party
convention dates are announced in late November or December.
NDI cautioned that official reports of political violence may
be misleading as it fears many instances are unreported.
According to NDI, the Chair of the National Women's
Commission was robbed at gun-point in her home. She
maintains the robbers told her they were sent to kill her.
She did not report the crime.


9. (C) IFES told the Ambassador that Chairman Iwu tried to
intimidate international NGOs, giving them copies of articles
about NGOs being thrown out of other African countries and
telling them he wanted them to "be aware" and "be careful."
IRI reported that political parties are concerned that their
campaign finance records will be the focus of Economic and
Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) attention. As well, NDI
voiced concerns over INEC rules for elections monitors which
require monitors to hold statements until after INEC releases
its statement.

ELECTIONS ON SCHEDULE?
--------------


10. (C) COMMENT. While most present agreed that INEC can not
meet the December 12 registration deadline, it is not clear
whether the National Assembly will bail out Chairman Iwu by
extending the registration timetable. One possible scenario
would be to "conclude" the registration on time, but allow a
period of amendments and late registrations after the first
of the year. A failure to keep to the registration timetable
is likely to severely damage the credibility of INEC and
Chairman Iwu and to further fuel the recent proliferation of
conspiracy theories.


11. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED. Elections will go on according to
schedule only if there is political will within the INEC, the
National Assembly and the Presidential villa. Those present
all reported an overwhelming suspicion that President
Obasanjo is deliberately drawing out the process to extend
his tenure in office. As deadlines continue to pass, the
desire for free and fair elections may well be subsumed by
procedural and security concerns -- this may be Obasanjo's
intention. END COMMENT.

CAMPBELL