ATIKU STILL UPBEAT, BUT MORE SUBDUED

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 002684

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/29/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR KDEM ELECTIONS NI
SUBJECT: ATIKU STILL UPBEAT, BUT MORE SUBDUED

REF: A. A) ABUJA 2293


B. B) ABUJA 2465

Classified By: Political Counselor Russell J. Hanks for Reasons 1.4 (b
and d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Vice President Atiku Abubakar met with the
Ambassador and PolCouns on September 29, 2006. While his
general mood remains upbeat, he was more subdued than in his
last two meetings with the ambassador (reftels). He
continues to use the courts to fight the corruption charges
against him, and is also fighting aggressively in the
political arena. The vice president is concerned that
elections will not be held in 2007, and he views voter
registration as the key to successful elections. He also
tried to distance himself from charges of corruption against
him. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) The vice president continues to fight the corruption
charges against him in the courts. He said he has spent over
five million U.S. dollars on legal fees in the last few
months. Additionally, he said he will bring a court case to
challenge his 3 month suspension from the People's Democratic
Party (PDP). According to Atiku, he will do this in order to
support the rule of law in Nigeria.


3. (C) In addition to challenging charges in the courts, the
vice president is fighting on the political front. He said
that he is regularly meeting with political contacts until 4
a.m., and that the previous night he had met with 15
governors until that hour. (Note: His apparently more
subdued mood might be explained by physical exhaustion. End
note.) Of the 15 governors, 10 were from the PDP, 4 were
from the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP),and 1 was from
the AD. In Atiku's view, President Obasanjo is increasingly
unpopular and Atiku is gaining support. This is particularly
true in Northern, Muslim circles. The vice president said
that the PDP leadership resident in the United States was
leaving the party to support him, and that there will be a
transformation of Nigerian politics in the next two to three
months that is "unlike anything seen before in Nigeria." His
direct implication was that there might be a turn to violence
and that the North was becoming increasingly combative.


4. (C) The vice president is increasingly worried whether
there will be elections in 2007. He views voter registration
as the central challenge, and says there is no reason the
voter rolls from 2003 could not be updated. He has spoken to
the Speaker of the House and the President of the Senate and
believes the National Assembly is preparing to take action if
the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) fails to
register voters in an acceptable manner.


5. (C) Unlike his previous meeting with the ambassador, the
vice president sought to distance himself from allegations of
corruption. Specifically, he discussed the charges
surrounding U.S. Representative William Jefferson, and called
Jefferson a "tenacious hustler." The vice president said he
"ran away from" Jefferson.


6. (C) COMMENT. The vice president is becoming increasingly
isolated within the Obasanjo administration. While he is
still attending meetings of the federal executive council, he
is often left to sit by himself while the other members
exchanges pleasantries with one another. Combined with the
obvious stress and extraordinarily late hours, it is
reasonable that the vice president is more subdued. However,
he continues to believe that he will be able to defeat the
charges against him and be allowed to stand for the
presidency. While he is increasingly pessimistic about the
elections, he still believes he will win if elections are
held. END COMMENT.
FUREY