Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
06ABUJA2521
2006-09-25 18:27:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGERIA LURCHES TOWARD VOTER REGISTRATION

Tags:  PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS 
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P 251827Z SEP 06
FM AMEMBASSY ABUJA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 7260
INFO RUEHZO/AFRICAN UNION COLLECTIVE
RUEHOS/AMCONSUL LAGOS 5138
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC
RHMFISS/HQ USEUCOM VAIHINGEN GE
RUFOADA/JAC MOLESWORTH RAF MOLESWORTH UK
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002521 

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: NIGERIA LURCHES TOWARD VOTER REGISTRATION

REF: A. ABUJA 2337 AND PREVIOUS


B. ABUJA 1243

ABUJA 00002521 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002521

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/22/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM NI ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: NIGERIA LURCHES TOWARD VOTER REGISTRATION

REF: A. ABUJA 2337 AND PREVIOUS


B. ABUJA 1243

ABUJA 00002521 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: INEC continues to prepare for voter
registration using handheld computers for direct data capture
beginning October 7. However, there are only 150
registration machines in country, there are software problems
with two vendors' equipment, and training on use of the
machines is in early stages. USG election partners predict
that registration will begin October 7, but slowly and
chaotically. The campaign environment is still marred by
violence and confusion, and there has been no visible
progress in the investigations of recent high-profile
political murders. IRI is organizing a high-level delegation
to conduct a pre-election assessment visit in November 2006,
following on to the very successful NDI-led assessment
mission in May 2006. End Summary.


2. (C) On September 21, Ambassador, DCM, Political and
Economic officers, and USAID Director and officers met with
representatives of that National Democratic Institute (NDI),
International Republican Institute (IRI),and IFES to discuss
the campaign environment and Nigeria's progress in preparing
for the 2007 elections.

--------------
Voter Registration
--------------


3. (C) IFES confirmed that contracts were awarded within the
last two weeks for the voter registration machines and that
150 demonstration models are in country (50 from each
vendor). However, only one model, that supplied by the South
African vendor, is working well. IFES reports that the
Canadian and Malaysian models have a variety of technical
problems. IFES is concerned about the apparent immaturity of
both hardware and software on these models as well as
compatibility issues given the short period to the start of
voter registration. INEC claims it will have 33,000 machines
in stock by the end of September, but IFES notes that this
would include some from the Canadian and Malaysian vendors
that require technical fixes. One of the vendors also told
IFES that all responsibility for the registration operation

and its logistics (including data transport and security,
storage of sensitive equipment and materials such as ink,
stamps, forms) rests with INEC, as the vendors were not
contracted to provide any of these services.


4. (C) IFES is most concerned that INEC appears to have no
"operational plan" for voter registration. All planning and
training appears to be ad hoc and uncoordinated. Training on
the registration equipment has started in Abuja but has been
delayed in many of the states. Procedural training has not
begun at all, as the final version of the training manual has
not yet been approved. IFES has been working closely with
the Voter Registration and Training Departments to re-write
the procedural manual and bring it up to international
standards. The completed manual is now awaiting INEC's
approval. Once approved, IFES will print 20,000 copies of
the manual for trainings at the state level.


5. (C) The election partners agreed that it will be
critically important to educate voters about what to expect
with the new registration process. One important step may be
to encourage voters to "check the list" to be sure that data
errors are corrected on the final voters roll. At present,
INEC has not announced plans for a complaints/amendment
period in which voters could scrutinize the roll for errors.

--------------
Parties/Campaign Activities
--------------


6. (C) NDI noted that the campaign environment is still very
confused and that violence continues. There is no clarity on
likely candidates for the ever-expanding myriad of parties,
and even the PDP seems to be splitting north and south. The
SSS and EFCC seem to be playing increasingly political roles.
The public is also confused by the "dueling impeachment"
threats by the President and Vice President. There was some
concern that the ongoing Obasanjo-Atiku feud could grind the
political system to a halt in the same way that the third
term debate did earlier this year. There has been no visible
progress in the recent murders of gubernatorial candidates in
Plateau, Lagos, and Ekiti states. Less prominent violence

ABUJA 00002521 002.2 OF 002


also continues. IRI has heard reports of so-called "ritual
killings" for political gain in Maiduguri and of a mutilated
body found near Abuja. IRI also noted that their staff left
the recent ANPP convention because the atmosphere was "too
tense" and that the launch two weeks ago of the new Action
Congress (AC) mega-party was also tense.

--------------
Preparations for Second Assessment team
--------------


8. (C) IRI also reported on preparations for a high-level
assessment team to visit Nigeria in late November and follow
on to the May 2006 assessment led by NDI (ref B). The
embassy elections team strongly suggested to IRI that its
delegation include a few members of the May assessment team
to promote continuity and credibility. The group also noted
that the May group was strengthened by the inclusion of
several senior African statesmen. IRI agreed to work closely
with NDI on selecting credible, senior Africans to be part of
the November team. Given the time frame, the November visit
is likely to concentrate on the voter registration effort
(due to wrap up by mid-December) as well as the overall
campaign environment.

--------------
Comment
--------------


9. (C) The mood of the election team was clearly less
optimistic than at our previous meeting. The overall sense
was that INEC is not ready to conduct credible voter
registration and that political violence continues to mar the
campaign environment. We believe that voter registration
will begin as scheduled October 7, but in a limited and
chaotic fashion. We remain concerned that registration will
not be completed by the statutory deadline in December and it
seems likely that poor training and other logistical hurdles
will lead to errors in the voters roll due to rushed and
sloppy registration efforts.

CAMPBELL