ATIKU NOT CONCERNED BY IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 002465

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2016
TAGS: KDEM NI PGOV PHUM PINR ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: ATIKU NOT CONCERNED BY IMPEACHMENT PROCEEDINGS


Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) Vice President Atiku Abubakar met with the Ambassador
and PolCouns on September 19. He was relaxed, confident, and
betrayed no particular anxiety about the impeachment
proceedings which have been brought against him. While he
studiously avoided comment on the veracity of the charges, he
expressed certainty that the National Assembly would not
permit an impeachment vote. He stressed that the struggle
with the President was now a legal one, and that he expected
an extended court battle. He claimed that this would work in
his favor since he would still be allowed to run for the
presidency while the court was rendering its judgment. He
also hinted that he would continue his battle with the
president in the political arena, saying he had revealed
"less than one-tenth of what I have on the President."


2. (C) The relationship between the President and the Vice
President is further strained because Atiku has had travel
restrictions placed on him by the President. While he can
generally obtain permission to leave the country, in Nigeria
he is only allowed to travel to Yola and Lagos. People are
free to come to Abuja to visit him, however. Atiku claims
that in spite of the obvious strains in his relationship with
the President, they continue to interact on a professional
level.


3. (C) The Vice President continues to plan his presidential
campaign. He said he was in contact with former military
head of state Babangida, and he expected to receive a
delegation from former head of state Buhari later in the
evening. Both Atiku and his aides express great confidence
that they will be allowed to run in the elections and that
they will win if elections are held. Atiku claims that he is
"the only person Nigerians look to for defending democracy."


4. (C) COMMENT. Atiku spent several minutes reminiscing
about the late Shehu Yar'Adua. Yar'Adua was Obasanjo's
number two during his stint as military leader and was the
founder of the political machine that Atiku inherited on
Yar'Adua's death in prison during the Abacha years. Atiku
clearly wants to be seen in the same light as his (still)
extremely popular mentor. For now, Atiku remains calm and
resolute, viewing the impeachment proceedings against him as
simply another phase of the same political game with
Obasanjo. He believes that the President would like to
disqualify him from running for office, but he does not think
the President will be able to succeed. Given that, it is
unlikely that Atiku will fade quietly from the system and
will continue his efforts even if that means releasing more
information about corruption involving both himself and the
President.
CAMPBELL