GOVERNOR HARUNA PESSIMISTIC ON ELECTIONS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002181

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/21/2016
TAGS: PGOV PINR NI THIRDTERM ELECTIONS
SUBJECT: GOVERNOR HARUNA PESSIMISTIC ON ELECTIONS


Classified By: AMBASSADOR JOHN CAMPBELL FOR REASONS 1.4 (b and d)


1. (C) SUMMARY. Ambassador and PolOff met with Governor
Boni Haruna of Adamawa State on August 21. Haruna is
supporting Atiku's presidential bid and says he is confident
Atiku will win if there is "a level playing field." Haruna
complained that the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission
(EFCC) was being used to target the President's opponents and
the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) was not
adequately prepared to hold elections. He also said that
former Head of State Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) has significant
support among the country's elites. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) Haruna believes that Vice President Atiku Abubakar
will win any presidential election where there is a level
playing field. He bases his assessment on Atiku's nationwide
network of supporters built from eight years as Vice
President. He also said that in Nigeria, one builds popular
support from the sense that one cares about people's day to
day problems. Atiku has been able to build this sense of
identification and should be able to build a popular movement
to fill out the campaign organization he has already built.
However, Haruna said that these factors will only matter if
there is "a level playing field." He was quite pessimistic
that fair elections would be held.


3. (S) Haruna said that the EFCC is being used as a
political weapon to discredit potential opponents, and he
believes this is happening at the personal direction of
President Obasanjo. He cited the charges brought against
IBB's son as a specific example. Because the Nigerian
constitution prohibits someone from seeking elected office if
they are facing criminal charges, a simple accusation from
the EFCC is all that is needed to derail a political
candidacy. The slow pace of the Nigerian justice system
makes it unlikely that the charges could be faced and
defeated quickly enough to satisfy the electoral calendar.


4. (C) According to Haruna, INEC is less ready for the 2007
elections than they were at the same point in the 2003
elections cycle. More importantly, he believes they are not
moving aggressively to prepare. However, he said that it
would not be hard to revalidate the voter rolls from 2003,
thus overcoming one of the major challenges to election
preparation. (Note: INEC has told us that they are going to
capture fingerprints and photos of all voters, which would
require that every voter re-register since that system was
not in use in 2003. It also presents substantial logistical
problems. End Note.)


5. (S) In addition to the possibility that the electoral
playing field would not be level, Haruna hinted at the
possibility of military intervention. When discussing IBB,
Haruna said that IBB had little popular support among
Nigerians. IBB was once viewed as a generous man but no
longer is. That hurts his popular support. However, Haruna
believes that he does have active support from the elites of
the country. This is particularly true of military elites,
both active and retired. He also said that Nigeria's
fundamental problems today stem from annulling the 1993
elections, which were seen as free and fair, and led to the
brutal Abacha dictatorship. However, he did not predict a
military coup. The conversation only hinted at the
possibility that Nigeria could resume her traditional manner
of changing government.


6. (C) COMMENT. Haruna is the Christian governor of a
predominately Muslim state. The Ambasador last met with him
in December 2005. Haruna initially won office when running
as Lieutenant Governor. Atiku was the gubernatorial
candidate and stepped aside to become Vice President. Haruna
then became governor. He said that he anticipates holding
high national office if Atiku wins the presidency. However,
while leaving the door open to another gubernatorial run, he
said that he did not enjoy being governor under the Obasanjo
administration and did not plan to run again. While he
laughed when raising it, he said he might be seeking asylum
in the United States if Atiku does not win. Speaking more
seriously, he said he might leave the country just before his
term in office ended (and thus his immunity from prosecution
expired). He did not mention a specific criminal charge he
expected to face, but instead raised the specter of a false
charge from EFCC.


7. (S) COMMENT CONTINUED. We are hearing an increasing
number of voices say that they believe President Obasanjo
intends to stay in office and is willing to use the apparatus
of the state, including the EFCC, to extend his time. Haruna
seemed pessimistic almost to the point of depression. He
spoke extremely slowly, but it was very difficult to

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interject something in to the conversation. He is one more
voice sounding a bad omen for 2007. END COMMENT.
CAMPBELL