BENUE STATE GOVERNOR SAYS OBASANJO INTENDS TO STAY

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002129

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2016
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINR NI ELECTIONS THIRDTERM
SUBJECT: BENUE STATE GOVERNOR SAYS OBASANJO INTENDS TO STAY


Classified By: Ambassador John Campbell for Reasons 1.4 (b and d)


1. (S) SUMMARY. Benue State Governor George Akume paid a
courtesy call on the Ambassador August 16. Also present were
two of Akume's advisors, House of Representatives member
Tengu Tsegba, and PolOff. Akume's central message was that
President Obasanjo intends to stay in office but could be
persuaded to leave by the United States and the United
Kingdom. President Obasanjo scheduled a meeting later on
August 16 to test the political waters with members of the
PDP caucus in the National Assembly. Akume also implied
official complicity in a recent string of political murders,
reiterated that the original agreement between Obasanjo and
northern political leaders in 1999 was for Obasanjo to serve
only four years, and said that elections were not held in
some parts of Nigeria in 2003. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) According to Akume, Obasanjo is motivated to stay in
office by fear that he will be prosecuted for financial
crimes once he leaves and by his desire to maintain a
position on the world stage. Akume believes, however, that
Obsanjo might yet be persuaded to leave if the US and the UK
could offer him private assurances that no ill would befall
him after leaving office and if they offered Obasanjo some
continued role in international politics. According to
Akume, if the US and UK were to make public pronouncements
protecting Obasanjo, no Nigerian political leader would dare
oppose that pronouncement in future. Akume said that
Obasanjo gave large cash bribes to legislators who supported
the third-term constitutional amendment. Some of those
legislators so angered their constituents that they can only
go home now with a security escort.


3. (C) Akume said that Obasanjo called a meeting with the PDP
legislative caucus later on August 16. According to Tsegba,
the purpose of the meeting was to discuss what the National
Assembly's response would be if elections were not held in

2007. Newspaper accounts on August 17 said that the meeting
was held to discuss general political strategy, funding for a
planned Lagos to Kano rail line, and to provide anti-third
term legislators a forum to seek assurances that their
positions would not be held against them. In a phone call
with PolOff on the 17th, Tsegba said that the rail line was
indeed the main focus of the meeting. However, it was
presented by the president as his "vision for the next four
or five years." Obasanjo did not explicitly ask for more
time in office, but that is how the legislators present
understood the discussion. According to Tsegba, the PDP
caucus was not receptive to the notion of additional time in
office and advised the president that the rail project should
be designed in such a way that any future president could see
it through.


4. (S) Disturbingly, Akume implied official complicity in a
string of recent political murders. Many of these killings
have targeted leading candidates within the PDP. Akume gave
names neither of those involved in the killings nor of which
of the deceased were the victims of a murder sanctioned by
government officials.


5. (C) Akume explained that a grand bargain had been
negotiated in 1999 between Obasanjo and political leaders
from the north. Instrumental to negotiating this agreement
was Iyorchia Ayu, a former President of the Senate who went
on to hold multiple cabinet posts in the Obasanjo
administration. (Note: Ayu has since left the Obasanjo
administration and is heading the presidential campaign team
of Vice President Atiku Abubakar. End Note.) The agreement
was that Obasanjo would only serve one term, and that the
Presidency would then revert to the North. When Obasanjo
decided to run again in 2003, he made a show of having PDP
leaders including Akume come to his chicken farm in
southwestern Nigeria to "beg" him to run again.


6. (S) Akume alleges that the elections in 2003 were highly
irregular. He says that Obasanjo "barely won" in Benue
State, and that in some regions of Nigeria results were
reported without elections even having been held. He
conceded that good elections had been held in 1993 and that
elections had been organized on short notice in 1999. Based
on that experience, it is still possible for Nigeria to hold
successful elections in 2007. However, Akime does not see
preparations being made for the elections and he believes
this is because Obasanjo intends to stay.


7. (C) COMMENT: Akume is a member of the PDP who opposed the
third term and is supporting Atiku's presidential bid. We
believe he will leave the PDP shortly after Atiku does. His
political opposition to the president certainly colors his
views of Obasanjo's intentions. However, his argument that

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Obasanjo intends to stay in office is consistent with local
political chatter and with Tsegba's report of the PDP caucus.
While the embassy will continue to say publicly that
elections were held in 1999 and 2003 and that we expect
successful elections to be held in 2007, we concur that the
GON is not moving aggressively to prepare for those
elections. Akume probably overstates the ability of the US
and UK to "reassure" Obasanjo that he will not be prosecuted
for alleged crimes after leaving office. We also note that
neither the President nor his close political associates have
ever approached us for help with a "soft landing." END
COMMENT.
CAMPBELL